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THE Oil and Inflation Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Gasoline Price and Inflation

Postby Falconoffury » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 11:25:50

I'm not an economist, but I'm slowly starting to understand the dangerous position of the dollar. Basically, we depend on countries to take our money in exchange for importing goods to us. Further, we depend on those countries to take our money and invest it back into our country.

We are in a position where, all that it would take to create a big boost in inflation is for China to simply not invest much money in the US. We'll have to print more money than ever, thus lowering our dollar value.

The point is, we like to compare gasoline prices with oil prices, but both could shoot up even if oil production worldwide remains stable.

From the articles I've read, it just seems like the dollar is on a tightrope. It's eye-opening to see how close we may be to the economic SHTF.

It's sad how little was mentioned about the deficit in the presidential debates. Neither Bush nor Kerry are willing to admit how bad things could get very soon. Neither are willing to propose the radical changes that would be required in order to balance our budget. My only explanation is that they have accepted the collapse of the country. All this, and I haven't even gotten into oil yet. :cry:

I'm voting Nader, even though he will lose. Bush and Kerry are the same to me.[/list]
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 04 Mar 2009, 12:33:18, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with tHE Oil and Inflation Thread.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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Nader?

Postby Clouseau2 » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 14:47:18

I would vote for Nader if IRV was implemented.

At least Kerry has mumbled something about investing in alternative energy, and I think there is some difference between Kerry and Bush when it comes to peak oil: With Bush, there is a guarantee subsidies to the energy sector will continue until the point of collapse, masking the problems. I'm not sure if that is true with Kerry in charge.
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Postby Falconoffury » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 15:02:37

Alternative energy will hardly put a dent in the solution. The good thing about alternatives is that they will get people in the right mindset after the die-off. The survivors may take Kerry's advice on alternatives when they rebuild civilization.

Kerry will fight the war on terror better. That means lots of money and expansion going into the military. The only difference may be the choices on where and how to fight the oil wars.

Kerry has no way of balancing the country's budget and implementing all the programs he's talking about. He talks about using our own ingenuity, but the numbers don't add up. We will really have to tighten our belts in this country if we want to preserve the money system.

I think Kerry creates illusions on how effective his plans will be. Neither his energy, nor his budget plans are going to be as rosy as he makes them out to be.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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Postby mgibbons19 » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 15:10:46

Assuming of course that the war on terror is about terror. What if Bush is an opportunist who used 911 to get the US on top of the oil? If he takes PO as seriously as everyone on this site does, his military behavior makes sense.

And yes, the economy seems a wee bit vulnerable right now.

Young man, you need to read The Fourth Turning. as suggested by other posters.
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Postby Falconoffury » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 15:32:55

I not only think Bush took 911 as an opportunity to invade Iraq. I think people in the background orchestrated the attacks. Kerry wants to fight the war on terror, which is the same as the war for oil.

My point is that both are out for the same thing, but have a few specific disagrements on trivial things.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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Postby AnnaLivia » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 16:01:36

cue whatever music they play when the impossible happens, because i'm about to suggest voting for kerry.

my respect for ralph nader has never wavered one iota. just how much integrity and character does the man have to demonstrate to get due respect fer chrissakes?!

but our votes don't occur in a vacuum, and like it or not there is nowhere near the powerbase to get nader into the white house in january.

the world needs to hear us (and congress needs to hear us) say "no more bush no way no how."

yes, flip a coin and a richboy comes up everytime, and no richboy is going to save us....but getting rid of the worst president in history (and man he had to go some to get that title) has got to be a good thing.

and if you don't like kerry, you should vote for him, too. then he'll be the one who will be taking all the blowback from the permanent son's diabolic stupidity.
"O hell, here comes our funeral. Let us pry....for our missed understandings."
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Postby Permanently_Baffled » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 18:49:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'A')ssuming of course that the war on terror is about terror. What if Bush is an opportunist who used 911 to get the US on top of the oil? If he takes PO as seriously as everyone on this site does, his military behavior makes sense.

And yes, the economy seems a wee bit vulnerable right now.

Young man, you need to read The Fourth Turning. as suggested by other posters.


I agree iraq was about oil, but this operation was a failure if its aim was to secure more oil or increase its production. With this in mind I think Bush is out of military options.

PB
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Postby Matrim » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 19:41:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y only explanation is that they have accepted the collapse of the country. All this, and I haven't even gotten into oil yet.


Yup.

The way I see it, the people running the show or "the elite", could give a damn about "the united states" they just want power. They have no national ties. They talk all the patriotism mumbo jumbo but they really could give a damn about "their country". When the shit hits the fan in the states they can all just jump in their private jets and reconvene the UN in London or wherever, and then they'll all talk about how to solve the "America problem".

It's going to be grand :-x
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Death spiral

Postby Colorado-Valley » Sat 23 Oct 2004, 02:00:24

Here's an excellent summary of the current state of the U.S. economy.

Really, we are toast, guys.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1022-26.htm
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Oil-Related Inflation Kicked In During October

Postby Grimnir » Tue 16 Nov 2004, 16:24:27

According to today's Labor Department report:
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20041116/D86D5I7O0.html
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041116/D86D24VO0.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6501303/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ropelled by sharply higher energy and food costs, wholesale prices soared by 1.7 percent in October, the largest increase since early 1990.

The fed isn't worried, though (is it ever?):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ederal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his Fed colleagues, in a statement after their meeting last week, said that the economy appears to be growing "at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices."
Even with the surge of energy prices, Fed policy-makers said "inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained." Against that backdrop, Fed policy-makers said last week that they can stick with their gradual approach to raising short-term interest rates.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 04 Mar 2009, 12:35:15, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Oil and Inflation Thread.
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Postby trespam » Tue 16 Nov 2004, 16:34:36

I've been expecting this to start rolling through the economy for a while. The increased energy costs have to inflate just about everything. Hence my interest in the PIMCO commodity real return fund, which purchases inflation adjusted treasuries and then invests some of the money in futures based on a standard commodities index. It's a great way to add some inflation proofing to a portfolio and virtually own a whole basket of commodities.
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Amazing - the blindness of our economists!

Postby Dvanharn » Tue 16 Nov 2004, 16:58:30

Many here at peakoil.com were aware that our economy was heavily dependent on oil, and that high oil prices would quickly show up in economic data.

Depending on the severity of winter weather, oil prices may go down, possibly to the low $30's by next spring. However, the expected 15% increase in demand by China over the next year, and the 2% or more growth in demand by the rest of the world may quickly eat into the current high level of reserves that has just been established.

Since there is a shortage of oil tankers, and there appears to be no rush to build more, the current global fleet will need to be kept in constant motion to feed demand. Demand is not a linear function, and I am guessing that it will be necessary to keep reserves at max to compensate for peaks in usage.

I agree with many who say that $70 - $100 per barrel is possible in the next year or two, and that $60-70 may be the trigger point for serious economic disruption.

Dave
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Oil Drives Up US Inflation

Postby BabyPeanut » Fri 17 Dec 2004, 13:08:18

link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. November Consumer Prices Rise 0.2%; Core Up 0.2% (Update3)
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose for a fourth straight month in November, supporting forecasts that Federal Reserve policy makers will keep raising interest rates.
The 0.2 percent gain in the consumer price index followed a 0.6 percent increase in October, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Prices rose 3.5 percent for the year ended in November, the biggest jump since May 2001. Prices also rose 0.2 percent for the month excluding food and energy.
``We are beginning to see some gradual, upward creep in the underlying rate of inflation,'' said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management in St. Louis. ``This is likely to continue into 2005, which will be one reason why the Federal Reserve will continue to gradually raise interest rates.''

link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. consumer prices up 0.2% in November but 'unmistakable acceleration' seen
by Jeannine Aversa, Canadian Press, December 17, 2004:
WASHINGTON (AP) - Consumer prices rose by a mild 0.2 per cent in November as costs for gasoline and food products calmed down after sharp increases the month before.
The newest snapshot of the U.S. inflation climate, released by the Labour Department on Friday, validates Tuesday's stance of Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues that no wrenching increase in interest rates is needed to keep inflation at bay.
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Postby Taskforce_Unity » Fri 17 Dec 2004, 14:31:09

As to be expected. thx for the news, inflation will go on i guess.
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Postby savethehumans » Sat 18 Dec 2004, 19:09:50

"Unsettling."

I guess that's what the crash is gonna be, too, huh? :(
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Postby MonteQuest » Mon 20 Dec 2004, 01:23:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('savethehumans', '"')Unsettling."

I guess that's what the crash is gonna be, too, huh? :(


In Weimar Germany, 1923, the greatest example of hyperinflation ever experienced occurred. The following is the historic slide:

July 1914…4.2 marks to the dollar
January 1919…8.9
July 1919…14.0
January 1920…64.8
July 1920…39.5
January 1921…64.9
July 1921…76.7
January 1922…1919.8
July 1922…493.2
January 1923…17,972
July 1923…353,412
August 1923…4,620,455
September 1923…98,860,000
October 1923…25,260,208,000
November 15, 1923…4,200,000,000,000…yes, trillion.

By late 1923, the German government required 1,783 printing presses, running around the clock, to print money. Germans wheeled shopping carts filled with literally trillions of marks to pay for a single loaf of bread. Employees asked to be paid their wages each morning so that they could shop at noon before merchants posted the afternoon price rises.

The New York Times ran a story on October 30, 1923, datelined Berlin, which told the tale of an American who went into a restaurant and handed the waiter a dollar, asking for "all the food an American dollar will buy." The waiter recovered from his astonishment and began to serve the guest.

"Soup, several meat dishes, fruit and coffee were served. While the guest was smoking his cigar the waiter brought another plate of soup, and later another meat dish.

" 'What does this mean?'" the astonished and satisfied guest asked.

"The waiter bowed politely and replied: 'The dollar has gone up again.'" 8O

Spiraling inflation also wiped out people on fixed income along with the small savings they had put aside for retirement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Annuities, pensions, proceeds of insurance policies, savings accounts in the banks, income from bonds and mortgages - every form of revenue which had been arranged for at some time in the past, and which often represented the economy, foresight, and personal planning of many years - now turned to nothing. The middle class was pauperized and demoralized."

[Source: "A History of the Modern World"]


But not everyone suffered in Germany.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Big industrialists and landlords goaded the government to deliberately let the mark tumble in order to free the State of its public debts, to escape from paying reparations and to sabotage the French in the Ruhr. The destruction of the currency enabled German heavy industry to wipe out its indebtedness by refunding its obligations in worthless marks. The fall of the mark wiped out war debts and thus left Germany financially unencumbered for a new war.


At the height of the currency crisis an interested spectator commented:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The government calmly goes on printing these scraps of paper because, if it stopped, that would be the end of the government. Because once the printing presses stopped - and that is the prerequisite for the stabilization of the mark - the swindle would at once be brought to light. Believe me, our misery will increase. The scoundrel will get by. The reason: because the State itself has become the biggest swindler and crook. A robbers' state!…If the horrified people notice that they can starve on billions, they must arrive at this conclusion: we will no longer submit to a State which is built on the swindling idea of the majority. We want a dictatorship."

Thus spoke Adolf Hitler.

Now why does all of this have a familar ring to it, I proffer?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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High Oil Prices Mainly Due to Inflation

Postby GKhan » Wed 22 Dec 2004, 18:35:31

This article points out something very important. You may not agree with the prognostication, but it's well worth reading.

"high oil prices don't cause inflation, it's inflation that causes high oil prices." with an excellent dollar/euro oil price graph. link
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 04 Mar 2009, 12:39:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby americandream » Wed 22 Dec 2004, 18:55:28

Lets not forget the other components highlighted - demand and supply. Oh, and we are talking of the world, not just the US, my well colonised friend.
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Postby Pops » Thu 23 Dec 2004, 09:31:24

I should let this sink to the bottom but I can’t resist.

I heard some head on TV, talking about Martha Stewart, say something along the lines of “the machine won’t work without some grease…â€
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Thu 23 Dec 2004, 18:38:43

Is it just me or do economists just not make any sense? or is it because they think supply curves and their results are so difficult to comprehend that they can baffle us with BS and get away with it?

It seems a lot more frivilous than tarot cards or crystal balls. Is economics one of those pseudo sciences like psychology, that can't accurately predict or cure anything?
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