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'The Singularity is Near: ...' Ray Kurzweil

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Re: 'The Singularity is Near: ...' Ray Kurzweil

Unread postby XOVERX » Sat 03 Jun 2006, 18:21:27

Well, I 've read all of Ray's books.

And all I can tell is that Ray's predictions come up correct -- prediction after prediction, book after book.

I remember well the scoffers who laughed about Ray's prediction about a computer beating the world's best chess player. Right up until the tournament they laughed. Until Deep Blue delivered the crushing defeat over the human.

Computers that will never think? Really? You think not?

This one isn't even a great prediction by Ray. Virtually all AI folks take computer "consciousness" as inevitable. If the energy to drive the technology is there, a Turing Test computer will be developed in the next 10-15 years, and it will appear fully "conscious" to any inquisitor.

It's great to me that the naysayers will be around to live it. Because no one predicts trends better than the great Ray Kurzweil. Unless, of course, Peak Oil ends the little party a bit prematurely.
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Re: 'The Singularity is Near: ...' Ray Kurzweil

Unread postby markam » Sat 03 Jun 2006, 18:28:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think the internet was probably the single most important invention of our lifetimes, maybe of the entire 20th century


I agree. I remember the bad old days when a person had to go out and buy his porn in public.
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Re: 'The Singularity is Near: ...' Ray Kurzweil

Unread postby Terrapin » Sat 03 Jun 2006, 18:58:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XOVERX', 'I')t's great to me that the naysayers will be around to live it. Because no one predicts trends better than the great Ray Kurzweil. Unless, of course, Peak Oil ends the little party a bit prematurely.


IIRC Ray is not too worried about PO, because along with (continued) exponential computing power increases (and humans living forever) he predicts continued exponential decreases in computational energy needs.

I don’t have much doubt that AI will continue to evolve, it his optimism I disagree with. I’m actually more concerned about the implications of AI the grey goo than he seems to be.

The book is an interesting mental exercise though.

Oh well, what do I know?

We’ll see.
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Re: The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 01:34:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '.')..Society is radically different today then it was 50 years ago. This is largely thanks to how we use technology.

Yes, it is radically worse than it was 50 years ago, and it is definitely due to the way we use technology.
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Re: 'The Singularity is Near: ...' Ray Kurzweil

Unread postby Sulik » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 02:41:37

The chess example is irrelevant. The algorithm/rules are very well understood and it comes down purely to computational power, mixed with a bit of randomness in the algorithm. It was inevitable, even surprising that it didn't happen sooner, imho.

A computer creating something that it wasn't programmed to do in the first place is a very different story (All computers currently do exactly what they're programmed to do and that's it). We're still baffled by the complexity of simple insects.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XOVERX', 'W')ell, I 've read all of Ray's books.

I remember well the scoffers who laughed about Ray's prediction about a computer beating the world's best chess player. Right up until the tournament they laughed. Until Deep Blue delivered the crushing defeat over the human.
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Re: 'The Singularity is Near: ...' Ray Kurzweil

Unread postby Doly » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 05:11:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sulik', '
')A computer creating something that it wasn't programmed to do in the first place is a very different story (All computers currently do exactly what they're programmed to do and that's it).


Computers already do things they aren't programmed to do. I'll give you a simple example: genetic algorithms. I was playing about ten years ago, in one of the first PCs, with a genetic algorithm that simulated populations of bacteria. The programmed genes of the bacteria determined how it moved. No information was given in the program about what where the best strategies for movement in different situations. First, I tried with bacteria that had to eat static colonies of other bacteria. The predators soon developed the strategy of moving around in straight lines and bouncing on the walls of the box they were in, maximizing their chances of hitting the static colonies (they had no way of detecting their presence except by direct contact). That strategy is pretty obvious when you think about it. But then, I tried with bacteria that had to eat the moving colonies. The predators of moving colonies stalked around the borders of the box, where the moving colonies had to bounce back. I had never expected that trick to evolve.

So, you see, computers already do stuff they aren't programmed to. Have been doing so for ages.
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Re: 'The Singularity is Near: ...' Ray Kurzweil

Unread postby JustinFrankl » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 07:05:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sulik', '
')A computer creating something that it wasn't programmed to do in the first place is a very different story (All computers currently do exactly what they're programmed to do and that's it).


Computers already do things they aren't programmed to do. I'll give you a simple example: genetic algorithms. I was playing about ten years ago, in one of the first PCs, with a genetic algorithm that simulated populations of bacteria. The programmed genes of the bacteria determined how it moved. No information was given in the program about what where the best strategies for movement in different situations. First, I tried with bacteria that had to eat static colonies of other bacteria. The predators soon developed the strategy of moving around in straight lines and bouncing on the walls of the box they were in, maximizing their chances of hitting the static colonies (they had no way of detecting their presence except by direct contact). That strategy is pretty obvious when you think about it. But then, I tried with bacteria that had to eat the moving colonies. The predators of moving colonies stalked around the borders of the box, where the moving colonies had to bounce back. I had never expected that trick to evolve.

So, you see, computers already do stuff they aren't programmed to. Have been doing so for ages.

Unintended consequences are frequently observed in dynamic, iterative feedback systems (chaos theory), and a genetic algorithm is a system of dynamic feedback.

The only way to create human-level AI is to have a child.

Consider that the most advanced computer known to humanity, the human brain, itself takes somewhere between 14 and 21 years (depending on societal and environmental constraints) to be "programmed" before it is self-directing and "productive".

Further consider that there are 6.5 billion models out there on which to base an AI. Which set of values, beliefs, mores, ethics, and emotional understanding will be installed into an AI?

And, oh yes, emotional understanding is necessary. Because "intelligence" is nothing without an emotional framework to give it context, as the emotional framework is that which allows you to sense and understand what is relevant and important.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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