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Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

A forum to either submit your own review of a book, video or audio interview, or to post reviews by others.

Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby jdog » Mon 24 Jul 2006, 23:53:37

I agree with Matt and Aflurry, and would go a step further to say that the article is basically a smear job of Peakers.

The comparison of Peak Oil adherents to America’s religious Doomsday cults, and the time the author spends describing the brainstorming of the Manhattan Peak oil club’s goofy ideas about saving the city (*one member suggest digging up 5th avenue and turning it back into farm land) is essentially intended to discredit the movement as a bunch of kooks.

Anyone reading this piece lacking a previous understanding of the basic economic challenges or geological issues will probably dismiss PO as a new, quasi-religious fetish of the environmentalist left.

Matt makes a terrific point about the Rainwater piece. Showcasing billionaire capitalists, not people typically characterized as having weak grasp on reality, is a far more effective lens through which to examine the issue. T.Boone Pickens, Richard Rainwater, Jim Rogers – there seems to be no shortage of rich guys betting on Peak Oil these days.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby jupiters_release » Thu 27 Jul 2006, 01:42:38

I never buy magazines but this thread came to mind waiting for the train by the kiosk in the subway.

Reads like the author fully believes in peak oil but hasn't reached the acceptance stage yet. Maybe mocking the theory is his way of coping with it.

This quote was pulled into the middle of the page:

"I found myself immersed in a feeling I have experienced many times since learning about peak oil: I move through the world in wonderment at all that is slated to vanish"

He knows the reality, he's just naturally finding it a bit surreal like most of us.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby DesertBear2 » Thu 27 Jul 2006, 07:33:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdog', '
')Anyone reading this piece lacking a previous understanding of the basic economic challenges or geological issues will probably dismiss PO as a new, quasi-religious fetish of the environmentalist left.


This was my take on the article. Comparing the peak oil movement to the Left Behind mass psychosis tempts the reader to dismiss the whole rationale for peak oil.
"In Jerusalem ... the angry face of Yahweh is brooding over the hot rocks which have seen more holy murder, rape and plunder than any other place on earth. Its inhabitants are poisoned by religion."- Arthur Koestler
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Petrodollar » Thu 27 Jul 2006, 14:42:42

I read the article yesterday, and today I sent Harper's a little email thanking them for writing a cover story on Peak Oil, but I also critiqued Urstadt's article for comparing various apocalyptic religious movement with an imminent geophysical phenomenon - one that has already occured in 33 of the 48 major-oil producing nations on this planet....important facts that the Harper's article ommitted...and this geological issue should not be compared with various religious movements.

I also mentioned in my email to Harper's magazine that both Bill Clinton and Al Gore have recently stated in public their belief that we are either at or near peak oil...and neither of those two men can be dismissed as "radicals" or doom-and-gloom prophets...

MPR: A conversation with Bill Clinton (from a July 7, 2006 interview)
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/displa ... 11/midday2


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Clinton: “This is very important…I was reading a book the other day by a guy just bashing the living Hell out of me, about, saying that he was certain the CIA briefed me once a week on how America was running out of oil and that I did nothing serious about it. Of course he ignored what we tried to do and got our brains beat out doing. But that’s not true.

To the best of my knowledge, I never had a security briefing which said what some of these very serious, but conservative petroleum geologists say, which they think that, either now or before the end the decade’s out, we’ll reach peak oil production globally, and with the rise of China and India and others coming along, unless we can dramatically reduce our oil usage, we will run out of recoverable oil within 35 to 50 years. And that would mean that quite…in addition to climate change, we have a very short time in the life of the planet to turn this around.

So I think that we all need to start thinking that as we propose…practical solutions to climate change, what we…we all need to keep this in the back of our mind. There’s a good chance that these people who have a living all these years studying petroleum deposits know what they’re talking about, and we may not have as much oil as we think. So we need to get in gear.

But it, it’s a blessing. It’s a bird’s nest on the ground. America needs a source of new jobs. And we should be leading the way. Furthermore, if we don’t, the Chinese and the Indians will never follow suite, and we’re cooked anyway.”

James Fallows: “Let me follow up with one just further aspect on this climate change issue. As you’re well aware, this is one of many cases in the U.S. where the facts are determined by political orientation more-or-less. There is a set of…that the very success of your former vice-president, Al Gore’s movie, has made people both persuaded by his argument, and identifying with him, and with your administration, with the Democratic Party. How do you think this issue either will, or should be resolved, in terms of having a common set of facts and action plan agreed on?”

Clinton: “Well, I think first of all, in order to get broad bi-partisan support and have it bite with the American people, you have to put the climate change issue into the context of...first, you have to inject this oil depletion issue. This needs much more serious debate. It is almost not discussed at all by the mainstream media, and very few people know about it. You’ve got to read these books by geologists or people who talk to them, to you know, form an…to get a grip on the facts.


...and here's what Gore said on Larry King live in June 2006...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')ING: Gas prices -- we've only got a minute left.

GORE: Yes.

KING: Gas prices going to go down?

GORE: Well, I've seen a number of -- over the last several decades I've seen this happen several times, where they spike and then they do come back down.

But each time they go to a higher plateau. We almost certainly are at or near what they call peak oil, defined as having recovered a majority of the oil reserves at a certain price, affordability range. And so with the new pressure on the consumption side from China and India, if they come back down, they won't stay down long.

KING: What do you drive?

GORE: I drive a hybrid. Tipper and I got a Lexus hybrid. And we have a couple of Priuses in the family with our children. And I encourage people to make environmentally-conscious choices because we all have to solve this climate crisis.

KING: Thank you, Al.

KING: See you soon.

GORE: Thank you for having me on.

KING: Make the return visit sooner than four years.

GORE: That's a deal.


http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/ ... kl.01.html
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Revi » Thu 27 Jul 2006, 22:51:26

Even if Harper's makes it sound like a doomsday cult, we have quite a few powerful people in our cult. I think we worship truth and science. If that makes me a cultist, then so be it. It seems like peak oil is happening right on schedule. I don't particularly like it, but maybe it's time to start doing something.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby ShawnAvery » Fri 28 Jul 2006, 21:37:45

ive been following the issue for quite some time, and observing from afar how people have been waking up to these very serious issues and organizing and preparing for the future.

the most common reaction? armageddon. it makes me laugh. gas prices go up, life gets harder, finances get tighter.. and the most common reaction?

'oh, its the end times, its armageddon.' ive told many people about peak oil.. and well, no.. we arent looking at climate change. we are looking at a bunch of angry old folks. they cant cope. they just get angry.

'dont talk about that, im more interested in whats for dinner.' seriously, i can clear any room in 5 minutes just by speaking the truth.

as for young people? well life is ALREADY hard for us. my rent just went up $100, everything is going up in cost, and i just had to take a pay cut because i had to switch jobs. my credit is gone... but im not really worried.

i have friends. its hard on all of us. ..and we realize its not eachothers fault, so we help eachother out. personally, i dont care about the numbers. i care about if i have a place to live, or if im hungry or not... or if i can get to work and pay my bills. if not, well then someones got a problem.

but not me. lol. your sandwhich or your life. lolol.
"It's a lot easier to get someone who's never been burnt to jump in the fire.." -me
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Revi » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 23:06:20

I just read the article. Wow! At least it has hit the literary crowd. I don't think this article makes a very good case for peak oil. The doomsday cults are a bit too prominent in the article. This is not the only high profile article that tries to make us seem like a cult of liberal apocalysts. Greg Palast's excellent book "Armed Madhouse" takes time to try to debunk peak oil. He is excellent with his political facts, but comes up with nothing with respect to peak oil. Urstadt doesn't seem like he's ready to face facts either. Depicting peakers as all a bunch of old hippies is a way of discounting the message. I think a few people may dig deeper and find out the truth about peak oil. Most will just throw the magazine in the recycling bin and move on. So sad.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby dub_scratch » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 11:37:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdog', '
')Anyone reading this piece lacking a previous understanding of the basic economic challenges or geological issues will probably dismiss PO as a new, quasi-religious fetish of the environmentalist left.


This was my take on the article. Comparing the peak oil movement to the Left Behind mass psychosis tempts the reader to dismiss the whole rationale for peak oil.


I heard an interview of Urstadt (http://etopiamedia.net/empnn/pages/cpt- ... 51212.html) where the interviewer noted that the Armageddon believers were faith-based when the Peaker's scenarios are science-based. He questioned whether the comparison is legitiment (which is not, IMO). Urstadt's response was that it is true that the Peakers have the facts but he felt they still cannot predict without doing some gross assumptions of the future.

What I felt was interesting is when the interviewer confronted the great uncertainty of "alternative technologies" to save us. Urstadt responded by saying that he had a "general faith" that they will. In other words, the basis behind his certainty of the great technofix is the same thing that binds Armageddon believers.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 14:16:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')What I felt was interesting is when the interviewer confronted the great uncertainty of "alternative technologies" to save us. Urstadt responded by saying that he had a "general faith" that they will. In other words, the basis behind his certainty of the great technofix is the same thing that binds Armageddon believers.


Great catch.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrodollar', 'I') read the article yesterday, and today I sent Harper's a little email thanking them for writing a cover story on Peak Oil, but I also critiqued Urstadt's article for comparing various apocalyptic religious movement with an imminent geophysical phenomenon - one that has already occured in 33 of the 48 major-oil producing nations on this planet....important facts that the Harper's article ommitted...and this geological issue should not be compared with various religious movements.


Thanks for doing that. I was going to ummm... write a letter, but I ahhh... forgot. Glad someone more capable took it on. Will check the letters section for it.

BTW, finished PetroDollar Warfare not too long ago. Well done.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby dub_scratch » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 22:46:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '
')
This was my take on the article. Comparing the peak oil movement to the Left Behind mass psychosis tempts the reader to dismiss the whole rationale for peak oil.


There is something else that bothers me about these comparisons.

It seams the only similarities between the Peaker/Power-downers and the Armageddon believers are their conclusions (somewhat similar, that is).

There are other groups of peak oil aware people who think the crisis is going to spur a basket of technogies and economic responces that are going to smooth-over the transition. Most of these types are proponents of alternate energies or technologies for cars in either EVs or biofuel. This subset of the peaknic is also embracing the oil peak as a critical point but they are projecting different conclusions for the future than the peakers discribed in the artical (Lorenzo, Amory Lovins, James Woolsey are a few examples of PO/techno fixers that come to mind).

Funny thing is that no one would ever compare these folks with the Armageddon believers.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Revi » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 23:26:52

I have to admit to being in the group that thinks that EV's could save us. A scaled down version of the car that runs on some grid, and some power generated at home from renewables could work. If we all get around 2 kilowatts of solar on our garages asap we could keep ourselves somewhat mobile without undue stress on the grid. There is no other way I see of keeping things going without a nasty slide into doomerism. Since I see none of this even beginning to happen, I think that there may be a liberal apocalypse coming.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby dub_scratch » Sat 05 Aug 2006, 02:48:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') have to admit to being in the group that thinks that EV's could save us. A scaled down version of the car that runs on some grid, and some power generated at home from renewables could work.

No it cannot work. Renewables make up less than one half of 1%. Renewable energy is the smallest energy contributer and the American auto fleet is the greatest energy consumer. There is no way to grow solar or wind power to any energy supply that can even begin to push our cars.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') There is no other way I see of keeping things going without a nasty slide into doomerism. Since I see none of this even beginning to happen, I think that there may be a liberal apocalypse coming.


I've got good news: we don't need to keep our cars running in order to stave off the apocalypse. Quite the contrary. By us giving up the National Traffic Jam, we will free up the resources and time to make a transition work.

Hard to believe, isn't it?
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby DesertBear2 » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 02:36:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')I've got good news: we don't need to keep our cars running in order to stave off the apocalypse. Quite the contrary. By us giving up the National Traffic Jam, we will free up the resources and time to make a transition work.

Hard to believe, isn't it?


Yes, it is hard to believe.

After we have spent nearly 100 years plus trillions and trillions of dollars to build a national infrastructure that is spread out across hundreds of thousands of square miles, how do we get around?

Can we all sit at home and work in cyberspace? But who then does the actual wealth creation in our economy? And how do they get around?
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby dub_scratch » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 18:27:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '
')
Yes, it is hard to believe.

After we have spent nearly 100 years plus trillions and trillions of dollars to build a national infrastructure that is spread out across hundreds of thousands of square miles, how do we get around?


I think you must be confusing the realization of a previous bad investment-- albeit, huge in scope-- with a variant of the apocalypse. Much of the "hundreds of thousands of square miles" of car infrastructure you note is not vital to core human needs. Humanity has done fine without the national highway system for most of history. IMO, advanced civilization can do well without it too. The only problem many have is they cannot imagine life without the traffic jam. But that is just a failure of imagination.

I feel I must make clear that this does not have to be an abrupt abandonment of the auto system-- just something that diminishes somewhat slowly with the oil supply. Ten years from now there may be half the cars on the roads as there is today, in thirty years there will 10% and in fifty years there will be almost no cars. Sustainability will not come overnight and it certainly cannot include the car.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Can we all sit at home and work in cyberspace? But who then does the actual wealth creation in our economy? And how do they get around?


Thinking about all the alternatives to solo driving and long distance urban travel-- which there are too many to mention-- none to me look anything like the apocalypse.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 21:46:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', '.')..

Peak Oil will not change the rules of the game, merely the color of the uniforms. Humans will still be the players. What we're going to get is the same greedy, bigoted, selfish, short-sighted humans simply operating with new constraints. We'll have shorter life spans and instead of being a slave to wage labor, we'll be a slave to the weather, praying for rain for our crops. There will be no new and wonderful era ushered in from our dreams and wishes, but rather just the recycling of an older time replete with all its miseries.


I second that.

What is the PO movement anyway?

I think there are two kind of people on this planet. One group is aware of PO and and the other is not. Either way we are doomed. The difference is the ones who are PO aware, think they are knowing exactly why. Does is help? I don't know but I have my moments where I'm thinking "ignorance is bliss"
I am a sarcastic cynic. Some say I'm an asshole. Now that we have that out of the way ...
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Revi » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 17:38:12

I think that The Liberal Apocalypse is bringing peak oil awareness to a new segment of the population. I had somebody talk to me yesterday who had become aware of peak oil through the article, and was convinced enough by it to take it seriously. Maybe there is something to the old saying that there is no such thing as bad publicity. Now if people would just actually do something about it...
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