[truecougarblue]

Hello all,

I've not seen a chart yet that compares global production to spot prices on a month to month basis. I've built one but am having difficulty posting it. (despite the valiant efforts of Pops)

Here's the data if anyone with better software would like to post it. The price is NYMEX light crude month end close for each month.

I see something in the chart, any comments....?

BTW, the free exchange of info would be enhanced by the ability to attach files from a local source.

2001 January 28.66 78.31635005 78,316
February 27.39 78.20426603 78,204
March 26.29 78.94602152 78,946
April 28.46 77.96142543 77,961
May 28.37 77.32010571 77,320
June 26.25 27.57 75.77560354 77.75 75,776
July 26.35 27.19 77.7465868 77.66 77,747
August 27.20 27.15 77.9340339 77.61 77,934
September 23.43 26.68 77.57906116 77.39 77,579
October 21.18 25.46 77.57596808 77.32 77,576
November 19.44 23.98 78.00424046 77.44 78,004
December 19.84 22.91 77.24264163 77.68 77,243
2002 January 19.48 21.76 76.53699403 77.48 76,537
February 21.74 20.85 76.66237504 77.27 76,662
March 26.31 21.33 76.47049348 77.08 76,470
April 27.29 22.35 75.95147306 76.81 75,951
May 25.31 23.33 76.64502207 76.58 76,645
June 26.86 24.50 76.3435677 76.43 76,344
July 27.02 25.76 76.75068977 76.47 76,751
August 28.98 26.96 76.59225011 76.46 76,592
September 30.45 27.65 77.16978065 76.58 77,170
October 27.22 27.64 78.58237043 77.01 78,582
November 26.89 27.90 78.86134318 77.38 78,861
December 31.20 28.63 76.90223803 77.48 76,902
2003 January 33.51 29.71 77.45884011 77.59 77,459
February 36.60 30.98 79.21568219 78.03 79,216
March 31.04 31.08 79.70243651 78.45 79,702
April 25.80 30.84 78.56713796 78.45 78,567
May 29.56 31.29 78.56773751 78.40 78,568
June 30.19 31.12 77.8659439 78.56 77,866
July 30.54 30.62 78.67499958 78.77 78,675
August 31.57 29.78 79.23713791 78.77 79,237
September 29.20 29.48 80.12683191 78.84 80,127
October 29.11 30.03 81.09696639 79.26 81,097
November 30.41 30.17 81.4460152 79.74 81,446
December 32.52 30.56 82.78406945 80.56 82,784
2004 January 33.05 30.98 82.32219846 81.17 82,322
February 36.16 31.74 82.35365749 81.69 82,354
March 35.76 32.84 82.19075597 82.03 82,191
April 37.38 34.21 81.92542119 82.17 81,925
May 39.88 35.79 81.56393234 82.19 81,564
June 37.04 36.55 83.46674346 82.30 83,467
July 43.80 38.34 83.95286236 82.58 83,953
August 42.12 39.33 82.94149939 82.67 82,941
September 49.64 41.64 83.42639424 82.88 83,426
October 51.76 44.04 84.2048427 83.26 84,205
November 49.13 45.58 84.03383067 83.67 84,034
December 43.45 46.65 83.66137047 83.70 83,661
2005 January E 48.20 47.38 83.89604385 83.69 83,896
February E 51.75 48.99 84.30042282 83.92 84,300
March E 55.40 49.95 84.42934821 84.09 84,429
April E 49.72 49.61 84.79741486 84.19 84,797
May E 51.97 50.08 84.98843628 84.35 84,988
June E 56.50 52.26 84.57262261 84.50 84,573
July E 60.57 54.32 84.31202521 84.57 84,312
August E 68.94 57.18 84.39543569 84.58 84,395
September E 66.24 58.99 83.50864695 84.43 83,509
October E 59.76 60.66 83.40969931 84.20 83,410
November E 57.32 61.56 84.4296078 84.10 84,430
December E 61.04 62.31 85.02264471 84.18 85,023
2006 January E 67.92 63.54 84.68984681 84.24 84,690
February E 61.41 62.28 84.72174391 84.30 84,722
March E 66.63 62.35 84.28251281 84.43 84,283
Apr 71.88 64.37
May 71.29 66.70
73.93 68.84

[dougr]

truecougarblue,

You can go to http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/mycharts.php and register (it's free)...then upload your chart on that site and post a link to it here.
At least that way you'll get it out there.

[Geko45]

Ok here it is, but does it mean anything? I adjusted the scale of supply to fit with price (just an eyeball fit), but I'm not convinced (yet) that this is telling us anything important. Perhaps starting in June '05 we could no longer increase supply to meet demand? Was this the inflection point? Is this even a valid comparison?

[truecougarblue]

Thanks very much for posting that.

Look for some notes on this by elijahjones. He PMed me an analysis that made a lot of sense and seems to show what's happening from a purely economic standpoint.
I've been away for a week so I haven't seen his finished paper yet.

In addition, I think as a chart watcher I read one of two things into that comparison. Supply appears to have been constrained, or prices are speculative. If supply is constrained it would be due to shut in production, disrupted production, or peak production (or some combination thereof).

Regardless of the cause(s), can anyone find a similar period of 6 quarters showing this trend?

[ohanian]

[Geko45]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '*')scary chart*

[truecougarblue]

I appreciate that new chart as well, it certainly gives one pause.

I guess I'd like to see a greater number of data points over a longer period. I'd like to see what this same chart looked like leading up to the oil embargo, or the Iran crisis. I guess what I'm trying to see or show is that this specific pattern just hasn't happened before, or hasn't happened for this long period.

I'll try to track down more data, I've been pretty busy.

[Doly]

If the logic of rising prices is correct, the best fit should be an exponential, rather than polynomial.

But I guess it can't remain exponential for long before some real demand destruction kicks in.

[truecougarblue]

My theory is that price vs. supply is a very valid indicator of peak because it is essencially the output of all the other programmed variables in a free market.

One can consider all the new production projects, when they are programmed to come on line, how different fields are depleting, etc.; all of the futures traders are doing this as well, with huge financial backing toward research. That's why I think price vs. supply is so telling as an indicator of where we are.

I'm still actually mostly looking at it from the investor's viewpoint and I personally don't need to know exactly when peak is. I'm preparing as if it already has passed.