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How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby nth » Fri 28 Jul 2006, 13:50:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')
Prudhoe Bay had a negative EROEI thoroughout it's entire production history, yet becuase the company elites made fat bonuses and good profits the project was deemed a success.


Was this discussed here?
I never knew Prudhoe Bay is an energy sinkhole.

FYI: EROEI cannot be negative.
You probably want to rephrase that.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby nth » Fri 28 Jul 2006, 13:53:03

ElijahJones,

Umm... you may want to rethink about your assumptions.
Even without natural gas input, they can still produce quite a bit of oil. There are systems in development and demonstrated in pilot scale that does not use natural gas. Right now, natural gas is cheap, so the majors don't find it necessary to implement these types of techniques.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby RdSnt » Sat 29 Jul 2006, 22:24:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')
Prudhoe Bay had a negative EROEI thoroughout it's entire production history, yet becuase the company elites made fat bonuses and good profits the project was deemed a success.


Was this discussed here?
I never knew Prudhoe Bay is an energy sinkhole.

FYI: EROEI cannot be negative.
You probably want to rephrase that.



If your Energy Return is less than your Energy Invested, you have a negative return on your investment.
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby RdSnt » Sat 29 Jul 2006, 22:37:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'E')lijahJones,

Umm... you may want to rethink about your assumptions.
Even without natural gas input, they can still produce quite a bit of oil. There are systems in development and demonstrated in pilot scale that does not use natural gas. Right now, natural gas is cheap, so the majors don't find it necessary to implement these types of techniques.


Yes, you can burn the tar sand directly. But of course you don't get much energy out of it, relative to the refined product. You then have the complication of needing to suck the resultant hot goo out of the ground, requiring even more energy.
There is the added problem of this method being that the tar sand as it burns expands like popcorn, creating an even bigger waste disposal problem.

You can build a nuclear plant to provide the steam or electricity needed. But of course you then run into the problem of nuclear fuel production which is already way behind demand. Plus you need to factor in the energy used to build the plant and create the fuel.

You can use electric induction heating.
You can inject oxygen into the deposit and burn in place.
You can use nuclear explosions.

What you need to keep clearly in mind, there is no free lunch and there is no getting around thermodynamic, chemical and mechanical processes necessary for extraction. There is a very specific amount of energy required to extract useable petroleum products from tar sands. It doesn't matter how you generate the energy it is always the same.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby DesertBear2 » Sun 30 Jul 2006, 03:54:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '
')So I suppose we need to build a HUGE refinery for heavy & sour crudes, without fussing too much about sulphur extraction or H2S safety, and focus on producing diesel for countries who have weak emissions rules.


Excuse me......

H2S is an extremely deadly gas that kills people very quickly.

At the wellsite in H2S country, elaborate alarms and protective systems are in place because this gas can appear suddenly, massively, and without any odor. Death comes quickly when H2S saturates the environment.

H2S protection is not optional.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby emailking » Sun 30 Jul 2006, 13:57:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')
Prudhoe Bay had a negative EROEI thoroughout it's entire production history, yet becuase the company elites made fat bonuses and good profits the project was deemed a success.


Was this discussed here?
I never knew Prudhoe Bay is an energy sinkhole.

FYI: EROEI cannot be negative.
You probably want to rephrase that.



If your Energy Return is less than your Energy Invested, you have a negative return on your investment.


This corresponds to an EROEI between 0 and 1. There is no such thing as a negative EROEI.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby nth » Mon 31 Jul 2006, 17:29:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')

If your Energy Return is less than your Energy Invested, you have a negative return on your investment.


EROEI is not the same as what you stated above.
Go look up the formula on EROEI.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Tue 01 Aug 2006, 04:17:11

Why don't you enlighten us as to how you can not have a negative EROEI ?
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby Doly » Tue 01 Aug 2006, 04:45:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'W')hy don't you enlighten us as to how you can not have a negative EROEI ?


For those who are still confused: EROEI is defined as:

Energy Returned / Energy Invested

It's a division, not a substraction. Therefore, you can't get negative numbers. You can get numbers less than 1, though. This is colloquially called "negative EROEI", even though it isn't the correct way of calling it, because there isn't any word for numbers less than 1. Even I have fallen into talking about negative EROEI. I suggest we accept "negative EROEI" as meaning "less than 1", even if this is mathematically incorrect.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby Tanada » Tue 01 Aug 2006, 12:31:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'W')hy don't you enlighten us as to how you can not have a negative EROEI ?


For those who are still confused: EROEI is defined as:

Energy Returned / Energy Invested

It's a division, not a substraction. Therefore, you can't get negative numbers. You can get numbers less than 1, though. This is colloquially called "negative EROEI", even though it isn't the correct way of calling it, because there isn't any word for numbers less than 1. Even I have fallen into talking about negative EROEI. I suggest we accept "negative EROEI" as meaning "less than 1", even if this is mathematically incorrect.


Sincne when has the word fraction stopped meaning numbers less than 1 and greater than zero? What you call negative EROEI is actually fractional return on energy invested, not negative. As in you only get back a fraction of the energy you put in......
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby RdSnt » Wed 02 Aug 2006, 20:59:53

Huh?

If you expend 2 barrels of oil and get back 1 barrel, you are short one whole barrel of oil.
If you expend 5 barrels of oil and get 1 back you are short 4 whole barrels.
Where's the fraction in that. I don't care what the proper, mathematical, statistical, defininition is. We are still talking about big, fat, heavy, round, whole barrels of oil.
Quibling about proper nomenclature is another waste of barrels of oil. Wonder what the ROCNAD (Return On Clarity from Nitpicking Academic Definitions) is of that?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'W')hy don't you enlighten us as to how you can not have a negative EROEI ?


For those who are still confused: EROEI is defined as:

Energy Returned / Energy Invested

It's a division, not a substraction. Therefore, you can't get negative numbers. You can get numbers less than 1, though. This is colloquially called "negative EROEI", even though it isn't the correct way of calling it, because there isn't any word for numbers less than 1. Even I have fallen into talking about negative EROEI. I suggest we accept "negative EROEI" as meaning "less than 1", even if this is mathematically incorrect.
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby Tanada » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 00:09:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'H')uh?

If you expend 2 barrels of oil and get back 1 barrel, you are short one whole barrel of oil.
If you expend 5 barrels of oil and get 1 back you are short 4 whole barrels.
Where's the fraction in that. I don't care what the proper, mathematical, statistical, defininition is. We are still talking about big, fat, heavy, round, whole barrels of oil.
Quibling about proper nomenclature is another waste of barrels of oil. Wonder what the ROCNAD (Return On Clarity from Nitpicking Academic Definitions) is of that?



If you invest 2 for 1 your return is 1/2 or 50% barrel of oil for each you invest, if you invest 5 for 1 your return is 1/5 or 20%. Also it usually isn't oil you are investing in to get oil out, it is the equivalent energy. A lot of these figures are for natural gas that is not economic to add to the distribution network i.e. stranded gas.

So if you invest 2 bbl oil equivalent of stranded gas to get 1 bbls of transportable and saleble oil you are ahead of the game economically even if you objectively wasted energy in the process.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 05:03:06

OK, the actual number would be expressed as a decimal, correct.

Talk about your nitpicking.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby emailking » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 12:42:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'H')uh?

If you expend 2 barrels of oil and get back 1 barrel, you are short one whole barrel of oil.
If you expend 5 barrels of oil and get 1 back you are short 4 whole barrels.
Where's the fraction in that. I don't care what the proper, mathematical, statistical, defininition is. We are still talking about big, fat, heavy, round, whole barrels of oil.
Quibling about proper nomenclature is another waste of barrels of oil. Wonder what the ROCNAD (Return On Clarity from Nitpicking Academic Definitions) is of that?



Wow!

Let me put it to you this way: if everyone understood math sufficiently well so as to see the difference between division and subtraction in the calculation of Enery Returned OVER Energy Invested, then we may have collectively addressed the PO issue a long time ago.

It's almost like you're insulted that you got it wrong...playing it back on us for trying to clarify. Words do mean something. Defintions do mean something.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby nth » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 12:53:02

Wow, I am at a lost for words.
In my original post, I was asking about Prudoe Bay being an energy sinkhole.
At the end, I threw in this line:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')FYI: EROEI cannot be negative.
You probably want to rephrase that.


When I wrote that, I assume you would know that I understood your point and just want to point out that you probably don't want to use the term EROEI or state that EROEI is under 1.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby RdSnt » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 21:23:17

This is way too funny :lol: , but enormously valuable.

I see your problem, you seem to be looking at this as a ratio rather than growth, and thus you are right you can't have negative values.
The missing ingredient is the lack of a definition of zero (0).

1 barrel in to 1 barrel out is zero growth, this then defines zero.
It may seem arbitrary, but you need to set it someplace. Much like zero celsius is arbitrary but valuable none the less.

You then can indeed have a negative return on investment.

The point of this argument is, as you've so eloquently mentioned, for the benefit of us great unwashed mathematically ignoramouses.
We don't feel comfortable with the notion that spending more than we get in return is seen as a positive.

And let's not get into how mathematics is the most damaging thing to civilization next to religion. 8O There is likely a ratio for it though :lol:



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emailking', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'H')uh?

If you expend 2 barrels of oil and get back 1 barrel, you are short one whole barrel of oil.
If you expend 5 barrels of oil and get 1 back you are short 4 whole barrels.
Where's the fraction in that. I don't care what the proper, mathematical, statistical, defininition is. We are still talking about big, fat, heavy, round, whole barrels of oil.
Quibling about proper nomenclature is another waste of barrels of oil. Wonder what the ROCNAD (Return On Clarity from Nitpicking Academic Definitions) is of that?



Wow!

Let me put it to you this way: if everyone understood math sufficiently well so as to see the difference between division and subtraction in the calculation of Enery Returned OVER Energy Invested, then we may have collectively addressed the PO issue a long time ago.

It's almost like you're insulted that you got it wrong...playing it back on us for trying to clarify. Words do mean something. Defintions do mean something.
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby RdSnt » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 21:33:17

Just count me as barking mad (as in midnight sun..., although I'm a Scot)

I did get your point. As in my above post though the big problem is getting the general public to understand just how dangerous our situation is. Most of us just are going to get excited about an EROEI of .1, being the ever so accurate ratio you get for expending 10 barrels and getting 1 back. Ratios, particularly since the don't go negative just don't reflect the severity of the change from say a return of 9.

I'd relate it to money which is much easier, if I invest $100 and get $1 back, I've lost $99 and I'm an obvious idiot.

Yet, I don't want to use $ because that is the primary obstacle to getting oil companies to stop working on places like the Alberta tar sands. While the EROEI is negative, the companies are making pots and pots of money, so why would they stop. It's a deadly problem.
Money is not equivalent to energy yet it is seen as such.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'W')ow, I am at a lost for words.
In my original post, I was asking about Prudoe Bay being an energy sinkhole.
At the end, I threw in this line:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')FYI: EROEI cannot be negative.
You probably want to rephrase that.


When I wrote that, I assume you would know that I understood your point and just want to point out that you probably don't want to use the term EROEI or state that EROEI is under 1.
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby XOVERX » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 23:29:18

Oil has unique energy characteristics. Some products can be made only with oil.

Therefore, more energy will be expended to obtain the oil, even if the result is less energy obtained than the energy expended to extract the oil.

So long as the energy expended is not oil.

For example, if the energy expended to extract the oil is solar energy, and double the joules of solar is expended with respect to the joules returned in oil, then the solar energy will be expended to extract the oil.

The EROEI argument breaks down to a certain extent when the product is oil. Because of oil's unique characteristics.

And when the world gets to this point, things are most likely quite bleak indeed.
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Re: How much time would extra heavy crude refining give us?

Postby nth » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 12:17:11

RdSnt,

I don't believe people are confused if you give EROEI as 0.1.
If they think that is a positive energy return, then they simply don't know how EROEI is defined.

Next time, just mention your Energy Return is negative. No one has issues with that terminology. Just don't use EROEI. EROEI is defined with an exact formula that you cannot alter for your own convenience. This makes it less confusing for the people who do know what EROEI is, which I had assumed most people here do. I guess I maybe wrong about that.
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