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THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Blackouts Across America

Postby gnm » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 16:37:45

Yup. so in short we're fscked.... 8O

900,00 years of fossil storage used every year? Yikes....!

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Re: Blackouts Across America

Postby Exponent » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 17:47:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'E')very person takes 2 kwh per day average in the US. That is electricy.

but each person drives 2 gallons per day in the us of gasoline or diesel aveage.

each gallon has 35 kwh per gallon
so in gasoline use we use 70 kwh per day

So I have a great idea.

lets take you average joe using 2 kwh per day and give him an electric car, which he can pulg into the grid and charge it up.

suddenly joe sucks 35 time more electricity from the grid than he used to.

(this also would help the electric stressed grid to straighten up)
whats with all these brown outs, I think if we just increase our electriciy use 35 times it would really help all the problems of peak oil and grid overload, dont you?

sure lets try it, never know what is going to happen till you try it.

Where'd the 2 kW·h per day per person figure come from? I tried looking for such figures, but I didn't find anything directly. I did find this report from the EIA, however, and got a total of 3,841,828,177 MW·h for the entire year, for the entire USA. Divide that by 365.242375 days (source), and that by 296,410,404 people (source), you get 35.4865138 kW·h.

Taking the calculation further, to try to verify other numbers given, the USA apparently used 6,758,653,000 barrels of finished oil products in 2005 (source), or 777,191,929 gallons per day. (If you limit it to just finished motor gasoline, you get 383,016,374 gallons per day). Per person, that would be 2.622 gallons per person per day (1.292 for motor gasoline). Which does seem to agree with the ~2 gallons per person per day, depending on how one chooses data. (I include everyone, drivers or not, for example, lowering the figures a bit for motor gasoline.)

Assuming an average energy content of 124,000 BTU per gallon of gasoline (source), or 35.96 kW·h that means that an average person in the USA uses 46.46 kW·h per day on gasoline.

So if everyone switched over to electric vehicles, then according to my numbers (which may have been poorly researched, let me know if you see a problem), we would have to increase our electricity generation by an additional 131%. So we would have to more than double it, but it's still nowhere near having to increase it tenfold.

Not that I'm trying to prove anything whatsoever with these numbers. I was just bored and wanted to find out what numbers my research might yield.

[edit]Of course, I just realize that I was too lazy and failed to take into account all the efficiency things. Maybe that could have an effect. Oh well.[/edit]
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Blackout in Ontario as heat wave breaks power use record

Postby some_math_guy » Tue 01 Aug 2006, 19:57:49

Ontario's power consumption reached record highs Tuesday, reaching 26,854 megawatts by 4 p.m., smashing the old record of 26,160 megawatts set last year on July 13.
The electricity use prompted the Independent Electricity System Operator to issue a "power warning" and asked residents to cut back until 8 p.m. to prevent brownouts or rotating blackouts.
"That's what we're trying to avoid today, is having to cut voltage or having to cut power in certain parts of the province," IESO spokesperson Terry Young said.
"But that's why we need people's help as well, to cut back on their own demand and try and relieve that strain."

More here: news
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Re: Blackout in Ontario as heat wave breaks power use record

Postby Troyboy1208 » Tue 01 Aug 2006, 20:11:10

I hear its going to be worse tomorrow :(
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Re: Blackout in Ontario as heat wave breaks power use record

Postby SILENTTODD » Tue 01 Aug 2006, 22:21:29

How many air-conditioners do you have up there?! California reached something like 56,000 Megawatts during our recent heat wave (it has cooled off to a pleasant 80 degrees here in So Cal this week). But we have something like 10 % of the U.S. population and some true desert areas that reached over 110 degrees Fahrenheit!
Last edited by SILENTTODD on Sat 12 Aug 2006, 13:00:12, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Blackout in Ontario as heat wave breaks power use record

Postby Armageddon » Tue 01 Aug 2006, 22:51:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('some_math_guy', 'O')ntario's power consumption reached record highs Tuesday, reaching 26,854 megawatts by 4 p.m., smashing the old record of 26,160 megawatts set last year on July 13. The electricity use prompted the Independent Electricity System Operator to issue a "power warning" and asked residents to cut back until 8 p.m. to prevent brownouts or rotating blackouts. "That's what we're trying to avoid today, is having to cut voltage or having to cut power in certain parts of the province," IESO spokesperson Terry Young said. "But that's why we need people's help as well, to cut back on their own demand and try and relieve that strain."
More here: news

come to st.louis and we will show you humidity.
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Re: Blackout in Ontario as heat wave breaks power use record

Postby rwwff » Tue 01 Aug 2006, 22:59:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')ome to st.louis and we will show you humidity.

Sheesh! Looked at yalls chart for July; its almost as bad as down here. Course, that is normal for down here in SE Texas.
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Re: Blackout in Ontario as heat wave breaks power use record

Postby Armageddon » Tue 01 Aug 2006, 23:11:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')ome to st.louis and we will show you humidity.
Sheesh! Looked at yalls chart for July; its almost as bad as down here. Course, that is normal for down here in SE Texas.
I didnt realize you were in texas. You have us beat for heat and humidity, but not by a large amount. You guys have some of the worst in the country, atleast houston does. If you are anything close to them, I feel for you.
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Pakistan Blackout Sparks Coup Rumors

Postby DantesPeak » Sun 24 Sep 2006, 18:56:42

Image
A technical fault in Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) triggered a nationwide blackout in Pakistan on Sunday.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')akistan hit by major power outage Sun 24 Sep 2006
ISLAMABAD: A technical fault in Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) triggered a nationwide blackout in Pakistan on Sunday, a spokesman for the country’s main power utility said. He ruled out sabotage.
"It is a national blackout and we`re trying to find out the fault," said Shafqat Jalil of Pakistan`s Water and Power Development Authority.
"There is no chance of sabotage because had it been so, it would have been reported to us by now," he told media.

Pak Tribune
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ower Outage in Pakistan Not Linked to Coup Despite Rumors, No Sabotage Seen in Blackout By Pamela Constable
Washington Post Foreign Service Sun, 24 Sep 2006
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Sept. 24 -- Panicky rumors of a coup swept through Pakistan on Sunday after a power failure cut off national television broadcasts and later plunged much of the country into darkness. With President Pervez Musharraf away on an extended trip to the United States and Canada at a time of regional tensions and growing insurgency in neighboring Afghanistan, many Pakistanis speculated that he had been overthrown in absentia.

However, the chairman of the national power administration, Tariq Hamid, said at a 10 p.m. news conference in Lahore that the outage was caused by massive electrical problems, and that no sabotage had been involved. Officials of the information ministry, accompanying Musharraf on a visit to New York, also announced Sunday night that the Pakistan's president was "in good health."

The capital was quiet late into the night, and there were no signs of military vehicles or troops in the streets. There were also no reports of unusual military movements in Rawalpindi, a nearby city that is headquarters for the armed forces. But for hours, with power flickering on and off in Islamabad and half the country still without light by late evening, rumors continued to swirl of a possible coup against Musharraf, an army general who seized power from Pakistan's last elected leader in 1999.

"I have been flooded with calls all evening. Everyone wants to know if something is amiss. It shows you how on edge people are," said Mushahid Hussain, a senator from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League faction who is close to Musharraf.

Washington Post
Musharraf's book, In the Line of Fire, is being released in the US on Monday, September 25.
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Re: Pakistan Blackout Sparks Coup Rumors

Postby pup55 » Sun 24 Sep 2006, 19:47:57

It's only a matter of time. Musharraf stuck his neck way out by supporting the US at the time of 9-11, in exchange for some untold number of billions in bribes and/or threats. This is a chaotic land anyway, with some percentage of the nation under control of the warlords who won't let even the Pakistani army in, some percentage under control of the Taliban, Osama quite popular in the streets, and a big, (165 million) hungry, poor population.
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The only compelling reason to pay any attention to them at all is that they are the poster child for what happens to you after you use what little resources you have to develop nuclear weapons. You get political respect that you otherwise would not, you get the opportunity, if you want, to proliferate them to terrorist groups in exchange for oil-derived money, and the hostile neighbors, namely India, leave you alone.
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Re: Pakistan Blackout Sparks Coup Rumors

Postby Heineken » Sun 24 Sep 2006, 20:17:45

Pakistan appears to be destabilizing. Its coerced, phoney-baloney "alliance" with the US is as fragile as an eggshell.
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Re: Pakistan Blackout Sparks Coup Rumors

Postby DantesPeak » Sun 24 Sep 2006, 21:12:31

Even before today's blackout (whether intentional or not), Stratfor says Musharraf faced more domestic opposition lately, which has lead to a new agreement with the US and possible US military intervention: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')eopolitical Diary: Musharraf Girds for a U.S. Operation 22 Sep 2006 ... Musharraf is also desperate to boost his image at home. He hit one of the lowest points in his presidential career following the recent killing of a popular rebel leader that set off a fresh wave of domestic dissent. The United States took the opportunity to swoop in and deliver an ultimatum to Musharraf: give U.S. forces greater access to operate in the region, or be left to fend for himself against a growing opposition. In return for Musharraf's cooperation, the Bush administration would pull some strings to strengthen Musharraf's political standing and regain some lost clout in the government.

It appears that this deal between Washington and Islamabad is well in progress. Musharraf recently announced a peace agreement he made with tribal elders in North Waziristan Agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, which critics worldwide claimed would provide sanctuary to pro-Taliban militants. In spite of these concerns, the Bush administration went out of its way to praise Musharraf for his counterterrorism cooperation, and is even expected to give Pakistan a hefty discount on the sale of F-16 fighter jets and defense equipment during Musharraf's visit to Washington.

He is trying to create plausible deniability in the event of a major U.S. military action on Pakistani soil; he can later claim, he hopes, that Washington had threatened as much and conducted the operations on its own accord. It is not likely to work. Musharraf has been able stay in power by holding himself up as the only one who can protect Pakistan from foreign aggression and navigate the troubled international waters after 9/11. A large-scale U.S. operation on Pakistani soil would nullify that perception, resulting in a severe political backlash. Musharraf would lose a great deal of support as Pakistanis rallied around a campaign to denounce him for selling out to the Americans.

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"We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby grink1tt3n » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 03:18:55

Power cuts strike western Europe http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6117880.stm]BBC
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ierre Bornard told the French news agency AFP that two German high-voltage transmission lines failed, causing problems across western Europe. This triggered a "house of cards" style system breakdown, he said. Automatic security systems cut supplies to some customers to avoid a complete blackout. Italy, Belgium and Spain were also affected by the power cuts.
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby Free » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 03:46:15

Wow thanks, so this was what made the lights flicker - just for a second, but it left me wondering...
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby morph » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 08:49:42

goodjob the security systems did cut the power. we had a powercut this morning but only after some vandals broke into a substation and wrecked it :-x
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby davep » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 09:23:04

Oddly, it now appears it was a result of an initial power surge on the grid from German wind turbines due to high winds.

Como seemed to be unaffected though...
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby Anthrobus » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 10:20:19

we experienced the blackout in munich. It must have been the first time i experienced a blackout since being po-aware and had a very bad feeling when the lights went out suddenly and silently. Flashlight, candles and matches will be arranged better the next time.

Last winter there was a blackout in a small area in germany that lastet for several days in winter. The power companys had to scramble a lot with mobile generators and service teams to avoid the ugliest inconveniences for the ppl. But this is already largely forgotten.
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby Starvid » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 10:37:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anthrobus', 'L')ast winter there was a blackout in a small area in germany that lastet for several days in winter. The power companys had to scramble a lot with mobile generators and service teams to avoid the ugliest inconveniences for the ppl. But this is already largely forgotten.

That happens here every year in the sparsely populated areas, pretty much everywhere on the country side. In spite of massive investments in the grid trees seem to fall over the power lines every winter. It's just a fact of life.

Happily, my city has a (trash and bio fueled) CHP-plant so even if we get completely cut off from the grid we can still supply like 150 % of the heat and 80 % of the power the city needs.
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby Newsseeker » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 12:34:08

Richard Duncan has moved the cliff event up to 2007. It will be interesting to see what next year holds.
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby TorrKing » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 13:14:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'R')ichard Duncan has moved the cliff event up to 2007. It will be interesting to see what next year holds.

Up? Isn't the cliff supposed to start in 2012?
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