[ClubOfRomeII]

So I've been thinking about what Monte said, how sure, maybe some behavior will change, but that the marketplace and prices maybe won't do it fast enough, so running into a wall will arrive way before enough people wake up and say "Oops, I'd better start riding my bicycle" etc etc.

If it is possible that behavorial changes might work, but they have to be FORCED onto the population, then the question becomes, can you force enough people to comply, soon enough, does it push the problem far enough into the future to mitigate next decade or two?

For example, the government decides on my tried and true "scooter" plan tomorrow, while hiking the price of gas to $200/BBL, banning all cars in towns, whatever other "screw the motoring public" ideas that can be invented.

So, in this example, the government forces savings of multiple millions of barrels a day, FORCES it on the people amid all the screaming and whining of soccer moms, etc etc.

Would this work? Not this particular idea maybe, but the concept that the government can FORCE huge savings apon everyone? I'm not saying silly politicians CAN do it, but if they could, could it under one scenario or another WORK?

The game here of course isn't to STOP Peak, but I've heard people say that the 70's shocks threw a wrench into Hubberts projections for the world because of all the demand destruction, which pushed Peak back to ( pick your forecast up through last Thanksgiving ).

Pushing peak back allows more time to mitigate. No one has to agree with that statement of course, I'm more interested in Peak mitigation through political question.

[rwwff]

No one will accept adequate mitigations before the price goes up. Once the price goes up, mitigations no longer do you much good. $70/bbl is a nuthin.

[mekrob]

In summation, is there any possible way to get rid of/ avoid peak oil?

There possibly could be, but it's simply not going to happen. The government could mandate that no oil be imported. Since we're already on a pretty slow depletion rate, we're factoring in the decline of fossil fuels anyway.

No more imported oil. Only American oil. This would cause mass panic in the auto industry, so that is gone. Same with jobs at WalMart, Target, Burger King, McD's, movie theatres, parks, zoos and all of the fun stuff. This leaves tens of millions unemployed. Then you become a dictatorial government and force this 10, 20, 50 million men and women to become surfs on :farms; low energy factories; coal, uranium, copper, steel and minerals mining; oil rigs; and other hard labor jobs that oil makes so much easier. Oh, we'll have to dump 90% of our hardware in Iraq and around the world, so we'll mostly be on foot giving us casualties as high as the Iraqis. Now we'll feel pain: hundreds of US casualties every week (if we're still there for democracy since we don't import anymore )

This gets you onto a path of sustainability. You now know longer need so many tractors and fertilizer. You simply have more men to do the hard, physical labor. For mining, men won't have the luxury of putting the rocks and minerals on carts. They'll have to haul them much longer distances to save on fuel. Loggers will no longer be able to use gas-powered blades but instead do it the old fashioned way but it's ok, that's what all the extra millions of men are for.

It is possible. But do you really want to do it so fast? Push it upon this pussy society that thinks walking is a chore? Do you think they could handle even an hour of living like this? You think they'd stand for it? I'm not saying it's not possible to get it like this but keeping it this way? Good luck.

[americandream]

I s'pose you could say the same for the Sahara Desert. Don't see how politics is going ta maket it rain on there though. A bit of paltry irrigation may grows a few spuds, but at best, the place is buggered, as are the globes oil reserves.

Depression time!

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'I')t is possible. But do you really want to do it so fast? Push it upon this pussy society that thinks walking is a chore? Do you think they could handle even an hour of living like this? You think they'd stand for it? I'm not saying it's not possible to get it like this but keeping it this way? Good luck.

[Alpaca]

I think you have to look at it from both political and corporate "capitalist" perspectives since they are intrinsically linked (at least in the U.S).

Unfortunately, BUSHCO. INC. and their subsidiaries will only do what's best for them and whatever is best for 'business'. They are not really concerned with the "public good", just with keeping their "shareholders" happy (i.e those currently in power and their multinational corporate supporters).

Sure they'll reach a point where energy resources will be alocated, first to the gov't and miltary, then to industrial transportation needs, and finally to the public. I'm sure contingentsies have already been drawn up for most of the forseeable steps that will follow the inevitable decline ... it's just that "We the People" won't like any of them very much, & most won't understand why it's happening. When we're all waiting for our gasoline rations, I'm sure most people still won't see it as a a consequence of Peak Oil. The cover story will be about "conflict in the Middle East" or "those greedy oil companies", or "shared sacrifice in the War on Terror".

That being said, yeah, I guess it is a political problem in a way, but it's actually much bigger. Just as (most) ordinary people won't change their behavior until they have to, the question becomes, how can you expect (or compel) governments to act against their own selfish interests. I don't think it'll happen, so I'm anticipating a Very Hard Landing with lots of painful bumps along the slide.

Al

[JustinFrankl]

For "it" to work, whatever solution was proposed would need to be agreed on by the overwhelming majority of the world's peoples and/or governments. So, no, "it" wouldn't work, even if "it" refers to scooters.

In addition to population decrease, at least one of the following on a global scale certainly awaits us as the consequences of the peaking of oil and global climate change: permanent economic depression, social chaos and upheaval, world war, famine, pandemics.

What effects are you trying to avoid? Population decrease is certain. Social chaos and upheaval near certain. Among the remaining treats, permanent depression, global wars, famine, and disease, each could be avoided by sudden population decline due to the remaining. Global war could be avoided if billions first died due to bird flu, pandemic could be avoided if billions first died from war or famine.

It's not a pretty picture however you look at it.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', 'P')opulation decrease is certain.

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', 'P')opulation decrease is certain.

[Alpaca]

Unless we figure out how to grow our crops and power our transportation using leprechauns and magic beans, less oil means less food means less people.

Agreed, but how many less people & over what kinda time frame? The shocking truth is that MORE THAN 6 BILLION PEOPLE WILL DIE!! (within the next hundred years or so).

Considering how millions of occupations are reliant on fossil fuel use, those folks not overtaken by famine & disease will have plenty of work to do.

We can all be leprechauns !! ( but unfortunately there still's no such thing as a "magic bean"....)[quote]

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alpaca', '
')Agreed, but how many less people & over what kinda time frame? The shocking truth is that MORE THAN 6 BILLION PEOPLE WILL DIE!! (within the next hundred years or so).

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alpaca', '.')..but unfortunately there still's no such thing as a "magic bean"....

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'F')or example, the government decides on my tried and true "scooter" plan tomorrow...