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Oil Depletion Economics 101

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Oil Depletion Economics 101

Unread postby NTBKtrader » Sun 30 Jul 2006, 19:28:25

Consumption and GDP

When we buy goods and services, we are engaged in an act that will lead to their consumption. We may use (consume) them immediately (as with goods such as gasoline or services such as haircuts, etc.), sometime in the future (as we typically do with canned food, clothing, etc.), or over a long period of time (refrigerators, automobiles, etc.). We use Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a way of measuring the dollar value of everything an individual nation, a geographic region, or the world is able to produce within a given time frame (a month, a quarter or a year).

As one may suspect, there is a relationship between consumption and GDP. As consumption rises, there is an attendant increase in the demand for goods and services that results in greater production (and hence GDP). Conversely, when consumption declines, so does GDP.

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Re: Oil Depletion Economics 101

Unread postby mattduke » Sun 30 Jul 2006, 21:14:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'A')s consumption rises, there is an attendant increase in the demand for goods and services that results in greater production (and hence GDP). Conversely, when consumption declines, so does GDP.

That is the Keynes "paradox of thrift", and it stems from his faulty economic theory. Keynes wasn't very smart. He thought newly created bank credit was equivalent to real savings by society. By his logic, real saving is detrimental to economic growth. He basically had no theory of capital. If a theory of economic growth does not work on a desert island, then the theory does not work at all; Robinson Crusoe had better save as much as he can otherwise he'll be no better off than when he started. Yes, an increase in voluntary real savings by society does reduce profits in those businesses nearest to the consumer, but it also results in a lowering of the interest rate enabling entrepreneurs to take on new activities which deepen the productive structure thereby increasing total output and ultimately real wages. When artificially created bank credit is substituted for real savings, the interest rate is lowered and entrepreneurs engage in a deepening of the productive structure, but the fraud is ultimately revealed by an increase in the price of goods (whose availablility has not increased due to prior forgone consumption), and the new projects must be liquified for a net loss to society. That is the business cycle. Real savings are vital for economic growth, and the US has none.

Now I can go read the article.
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Re: Oil Depletion Economics 101

Unread postby coyote » Sun 30 Jul 2006, 21:29:13

I've read plenty of arguments both for and against Keynesian theory, but that's the first time I've heard anyone say he wasn't smart.
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Re: Oil Depletion Economics 101

Unread postby Kingcoal » Sun 30 Jul 2006, 21:49:08

What mattduke is describing is mercantilism, which is the theory of whoever dies with the most gold wins. I don't think that's a very smart theory either.
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Re: Oil Depletion Economics 101

Unread postby mattduke » Sun 30 Jul 2006, 21:55:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'W')hat mattduke is describing is mercantilism, which is the theory of whoever dies with the most gold wins. I don't think that's a very smart theory either.

Which part of my previous post has anything to do with mercantilism?
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Re: Oil Depletion Economics 101

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 31 Jul 2006, 05:49:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'A')s consumption rises, there is an attendant increase in the demand for goods and services that results in greater production (and hence GDP). Conversely, when consumption declines, so does GDP.

That is the Keynes "paradox of thrift", and it stems from his faulty economic theory. Keynes wasn't very smart. He thought newly created bank credit was equivalent to real savings by society. By his logic, real saving is detrimental to economic growth. He basically had no theory of capital. If a theory of economic growth does not work on a desert island, then the theory does not work at all; Robinson Crusoe had better save as much as he can otherwise he'll be no better off than when he started. Yes, an increase in voluntary real savings by society does reduce profits in those businesses nearest to the consumer, but it also results in a lowering of the interest rate enabling entrepreneurs to take on new activities which deepen the productive structure thereby increasing total output and ultimately real wages. When artificially created bank credit is substituted for real savings, the interest rate is lowered and entrepreneurs engage in a deepening of the productive structure, but the fraud is ultimately revealed by an increase in the price of goods (whose availablility has not increased due to prior forgone consumption), and the new projects must be liquified for a net loss to society. That is the business cycle. Real savings are vital for economic growth, and the US has none.

Now I can go read the article.


If only you were close to being as "dumb" as Keynes.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The paradox of thrift is a paradox of economics propounded by John Maynard Keynes. The paradox states that if everyone saves more money during times of recession, then aggregate demand will fall and will in turn lower total savings in the population. One can argue that if everyone saves, then there is a decrease in consumption which leads to a fall in aggregate demand and thus lead to a fall in economic growth.

The simplified form of the argument is that in equilibrium total income (and thus demand) must equal total output, and that total investment must equal total saving. Assuming that saving rises faster as a function of income than the relationship between investment and output, an increase in the marginal propensity to save, all other things being equal, will move the equilibrium point at which income equals output and investment equals income to lower values.

In this form it is a prisoner's dilemma as saving is beneficial to each individual but on a whole it can be harmful. This is a "paradox" because it runs contrary to common intuition. One who does not know about the paradox of thrift would fall into the fallacy of composition. This fallacy arises when one infers that something is true of an economy from the fact that it is true of an individual. Although exercising thrift might be good for an individual, by enabling that individual to save for a "rainy day", it might not be good for the economy as a whole.

This paradox can be explained by analyzing increased savings in an economy. If a population saves more money (that is that the marginal propensity to save increases across all income levels) then total revenues for companies will decline. This decrease in economic growth means fewer raises and perhaps downsizing. Eventually the population's total savings have remained the same or even declined because of lower incomes and a weaker economy. This paradox is based on the proposition, put forth in Keynesian economics, that many economic downturns are demand based.

Non-Keynesian economists criticize this theory on two grounds. First, if demand slackens and prices fall, the resulting lower price will stimulate demand, which tends to limit the decline in demand. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, "savings" represent loanable funds; an increase in the supply of loanable funds tends to lower interest rates and stimulate borrowing, so a decline in consumable goods with a short time horizon is offset by an increase in production in sectors with longer time horizons. For example, the demand for personal electronics might decline, but the demand for such things as real estate would be stimulated by favorable borrowing conditions.
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Re: Oil Depletion Economics 101

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 31 Jul 2006, 06:08:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')on-Keynesian economists criticize this theory on two grounds. First, if demand slackens and prices fall, the resulting lower price will stimulate demand, which tends to limit the decline in demand. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, "savings" represent loanable funds; an increase in the supply of loanable funds tends to lower interest rates and stimulate borrowing, so a decline in consumable goods with a short time horizon is offset by an increase in production in sectors with longer time horizons. For example, the demand for personal electronics might decline, but the demand for such things as real estate would be stimulated by favorable borrowing conditions.


Keeping in mind that in a closed economy if everyone saves they will drive down the return on investments via lower yields in the case of bonds and lower returns stemming from lower demand in the case of equities.

But in an open economy where surplus savings can be transfered abroad these savings may still find a more productive use and come back home in the form of higher dividends, coupon income and capital gains either further stimulating net savings or perhaps stimulating growth through the wealth effect as at a certain point even savers may feel sufficiently wealthy enough to start spending by buying a house for example.

But oil depletion is about a) scarcity, b) higher prices, and c) scarcity. Scarcity can lead to higher prices, but if a product is no longer available in commercial quantities than price alone will not either stimulate or curb demand. The last barrel of oil will be a curiosity. It may even cost more to pump out of the ground than it is worth. Like a thimble of water in the middle of a desert.
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Re: Oil Depletion Economics 101

Unread postby mattduke » Mon 31 Jul 2006, 15:28:42

Keynes attempted to develop an after-the-fact justification for the systematic property-rights violations of bankers (the creation of multiple titles to the same property), as well as money creation and deficit spending by the state. It is no wonder the establishment loved him and spread his ideas throughout the universities. That is why most people have heard of him and haven't heard of Mises, resulting in an entire "lost generation" of economists. Keynes is dead, so his "long run" is over, but America is about to deal with the mess his ideas have created.
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