[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ')Everyone knows that the liklihood of finding Ghawar up there is slim...but every little bit is going to count.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ')Everyone knows that the liklihood of finding Ghawar up there is slim...but every little bit is going to count.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ') Amazing what that behavior change will do, versus us all just giving up, closing up the store fronts and waiting to starve because we refuse to get on our bicycles and hoof it on down to the local grocery store.

[tarzan271]

Wow I love this board! So many great responses. Usually when I share my ideas, beliefs, and values with people, I get major backlash from people and they tell me to get off my soap box. I love that people can discuss both side with a calm head and facts.

That being said, I think you are both correct. I also believe we are headed in the direction on socialism or totalitarianism. As much as I like it, capitalism consumes energy to grow and fosters greed. But, socialism does also. Who makes the decision how to redistribute the wealth and resources? People, who are inherintlly evil. There is little motivation under socialism to excell and prosper since it is so much harder to amass wealth. That leads to complacency since people know they will ultimately be taken care of. If it is between life and death, people will work. And if there is incentives for great rewards, people will prosper.

I guess I am biased against the tundra and desert since I hate the cold and burn in the sun (redhead). I can't live in 110 deg weather. As for wolves, nobody has been killed, but there has been plenty of atacts. The reason some aren't dead is because they shot the wolves. Plus wolves usually target the young moose and caribou for easier kills. One tried to drag a 6 year old into the wood after attacting him, but luckily was shot by the boys dad. What would of happened if the dad wasn't armed?

Wolf Report 2006

I don't think anyone is just going to quit society outright. It will take time for the decline of our society. The oil in NPRA has been approved to drill. They are currently drilling wildcat wells. ANWR will take a while, if ever, to tap. Still it won't stop peak oil. Nor will recovering more of the thick stuff with steam technology like they are trying in the Middle East. It will just delay it. The first transition will be to natural gas. Then, I think we will try to add biofuels. Ultimately, we will still have a decline in energy to consume, but I don't think it will be as severe as some think.

As the energy costs rise, people all around the world will consume less. Since we are weathier than China and India, our energy needs will outlast theirs, plus we will be able to afford the conversion to other sources easier. But, we rely on other countries heavily, so ultimately we will be effected greatly also. Our economy WILL crash and we WILL have to change our current lifestyle to survive. Even if every American stops driving, there is still a finite amount of oil and we cannot change trains, ships, jets, planes, or the products besides gasoline that we use from oil.

The earth is not making anymore oil and our population is growing. It doesn't take an expert to figure out there's a major problem to address. Has our government addressed it? Nope. They think the answer is to fight for more oil or try to drill for a little more. We need change, not more oil. I never thought I would think like an environmentalist, but we need renewable energy. I don't believe pollution or global warming are the problem. I think lack of energy is.

I don't want to stay in my house that relies on energy to run. No matter haw much money I have, it will be a losing battle. My wife and I would rather live on the land and rely on ourselves, than stick with the status quo. I love my life and am very fortunate for what I have, but it will not last forever. Most of my money in my 401k/IRA will dwindle away with the eminate economic crash, as will the value of my house. Without a nest egg fo money, the future is bleek.

We are planning on buying land in North Idaho/Montana for a commune sort of idea. We are not Hippies and I even dispise the word. We will live there with friends and family who each have survival, medical, or trade skills. Solar, wind, and hydoelectric will give up power. It must have a lake, river, or stream and flat land for farming. We will hunt, trap, fish, and farm for food. A shop, greenhouse, and cabins with cellars will all be built. We have found a location with 20 acres, on a river, that backs a national forest, that we are looking into.

We figure if nothing happens, we will have a great vacation/hunting spot. We could even rent or sell it in the future if needed. But if I lose my job in 10 years, what is the point of struggling for money when we could retire and live just as comfortable as we do today without money or oil? My 2 boys will be grown and I will have no debt. I already have everything I want and more than I need.

I am also seriously thinking about voting for a greenie for office this time. Even though I hate most of their "big government" politics, sometime you must sacrifice for the greater good and look at the big picture. The funny thing is, even though we are very conservative fiscally, we own a metaphysical retail store and my wife is into holistics and is psychic. That doesn't really go with us being registered Republicans does it? We are definately different than most people. Hence the reason we are now conservative Libertarians.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ') Amazing what that behavior change will do, versus us all just giving up, closing up the store fronts and waiting to starve because we refuse to get on our bicycles and hoof it on down to the local grocery store.

[tarzan271]

Your right, people will change their driving habbits, but we cannot change the fact that our whole economy and well being relies on oil. It will be much more expensive to pump and refine the future oil reserves than it is today. All of our mining, transportation, agriculture, and manufaturing relies on oil. When oil goes up in price, so will everything else. When people can't afford ANYTHING, (food, clothing, building materials) that's when it gets grim. It's not just about driving your car.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ')It isn't outlandish, its what I'm hearing. The basic premise that I think I am hearing is that as oil prices increase, oil production decreases, NO ONE will change behavior.

[tarzan271]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Most people will hit a brick wall that will force them to change. But by then, it will be too late.

Cultural direction and asset inertia are driving this. Changing people's habits is like turning the Titanic.

People will find there are no viable alternatives to meet the demand. If you think moving to the city, biking and scooters is even a drop in the bucket solution, then you have not considered the economical consequences.

Conservation is a self-induced recession.

No one says people won't have to change behavior, but it will be chaotic and may lead to a world-wide depression as the house of cards collapses.

Scarcity breeds poverty and poverty breeds conflict.

We will fight.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tarzan271', 'Y')our right, people will change their driving habbits, but we cannot change the fact that our whole economy and well being relies on oil..

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Scarcity breeds poverty and poverty breeds conflict.

We will fight.

[jbrown]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for wolves, nobody has been killed, but there has been plenty of atacts.

[tarzan271]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', '
')...the electricity in my home isn't generated from oil, the natural gas to heat it isn't oil...

[tarzan271]

Many people do not have the environment in mind when we make decisions. I don't care about polution or global warming as much as Environmentalist do. I care about money and my families comfort and prosperity. I know I sound greedy, but most people think the same way. It is the same reason people don't vote or only vote for a Dem/Rep. "My 1 vote won't count' or "I don't want to throw my vote away", is what I always hear. We think the same about fuel conservation.

"If I sell my SUV and drive a hybrid, it won't make a difference overall."

Most people will not change until they are forced to change. And that force will come from economics and economics alone. That is why I perpare for the worst.

[WebHubbleTelescope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tarzan271', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')
The real non-profits up there are trying to keep the North Slope from turning into a wasteland.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Scarcity breeds poverty and poverty breeds conflict.

We will fight.

[jbrown]

Tarzan
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't know about exaggerated, but yes, I am just saying it can be dangerous in the wilderness. I never said wolves should be exterminated because they threaten our safety. I was just trying to illustrate that when you are prepared and assume the worse, it is usually best. Wolves can be dangerous. As can bears and even moose. But going into the wilderness unprepared is stupid. It just bothers me that some people try to portray wolves in the same light as domestic dogs. Wolves are dangerous, just as bobcats and tigers are dangerous felines. Be prepared and educated and you will be safe.

[tarzan271]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')Is that how you report your business profits to Uncle Sam? It used to be a no-no to claim non-profit status on tax statements if you didn't fit into a certain category,...

[gg3]

Re. Tarzan's employer: It could be a producers' cooperative owned jointly by the companies it serves (like Sunkist, Ocean Spray, Welch's, etc.). Technically that's not-for-profit but it's not the same thing as a "nonprofit."

Re. nuclear plants: If I'm not mistaken, there are currently between 7 and 20 applications pending for new reactors in the US. Admittedly that's not much, but it's a start, and as soon as construction starts on the first one, investment money will start coming in for even more.

Now here's something to think about. Nuclear and wind each cost about $1 million per megawatt, or $1 billion per gigawatt. We have currently spent about $400 billion in Iraq. That translates to 400 gigawatts (400,000 megawatts) of nuclear and wind power. We could have given that money to the utilities and independent power producers to build that capacity. Or we could have done it as loan guarantees, which means instead of contributing to the national debt, it would be an asset on the books.

Re. Alaska: here's my vote to a) explore the field, b) prove out the resource in detail, and then c) sit tight until we really need it. No sense using it up prematurely; it will be far more valuable in a decade or two. But between now & then, we need to know exactly what's up there if we don't already.

---

Re. greed:

As I've said elsewhere, greed isn't a problem as long as one is willing to work for one's rewards. And laziness isn't a problem as long as one is willing to accept fewer rewards in exchange for less work. The problem comes where greed and laziness converge: demanding rewards while refusing to work for them.

Thus comes slavery and its latter-day equivalents of sweatshops and illegals, and a host of other evils generalized under the heading of "externalities." This is where libertarians and greens agree: foisting externalized costs upon unwilling parties, violates the premise of voluntary agreements entered into with free will.

And if we assume that consent must be affirmative rather than passive (i.e. if we consider "contracts of adhesion" as not valid), then: tossing problems into the future violates the liberty and free will of those in the future who will be forced to deal with them. (Nowhere is this more blatantly obvious than with regard to the federal budget: tax cuts for today and monster deficits for tomorrow. Today's generations get to party their asses off and tomorrow's generations get to clean up the piles of garbage after the party is over. Boo, hiss!)

---

Re. humans are basically evil: Not so. All measurable characteristics of humans, like all characteristics of other natural entities, are described with a normal curve (bell-shaped curve). In the case of moral and ethical behavior, the same case obtains. At one end of the curve you have your examples of evil; at the other end of the curve, you have your examples of sainthood, and the vast majority of humans fall in the middle.

Morality is not about what you do in bed. That's a distraction foisted upon us by hypocrites (and what did Leviticus say about eating shellfish or wearing mixed textiles? not to mention borrowing or lending at interest!). Morality is about how one treats others. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Kant's categorical imperative: Treat people as ends-in-themselves, rather than as means-to-other-ends. Jesus' two commandments: Thou shalt love the lord thy God with all thy heart, mind, and soul; and thou shalt love thy neighbor as thyself.

The struggle between good and evil is as old as humanity itself. If evil had won, we would not be here to tell the tale. Evil largely equates with stupidity, which gives the good an advantage.

Don't dismiss your advantages. Keep up the fight.

[tarzan271]

Eliquantly put.

I had to battle through the language, but you have many good points. Your English is obviously much more advanced than mine.

[TorrKing]

Just to clarify the wolf thing. When was the last time someone got killed by a wolf in your country???

In Norway we have one confirmed case ever. And that was an infant.

Bears on the other hand can be very dangerous if you are reckless with spilling food etc... But from statistics, the most dangerous animal in Yellowstone National Park is the plains bison.

Torjus Gaaren