[NTBKtrader]

http://www.inman.com/blogger/bradinman.aspx

Florida home sales drop 29%
http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=54815

California home sales fall 26%
http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=54818

Home sales nationwide dip 8.9%
http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=54813

[NEOPO]

I think the landing gear is stuck but dont worry I saw this on TV....everything is going to be f......

[seahorse2]

It depends on how close one is to the actual impact of the grenade. Those in the impact area will be decimated, those too close will be injured, others will be shellshocked, and then some will come in and clean up the pieces.

The grenade hasn't gone off yet though. Only the pin has been pulled. We have a few more seconds to get out of the impact zone.

[FoxV]

Well the good news for use bubble watchers is that the "soft landing" label has officially been abandoned.

also if you check the latest news on the the housing bubble blog you'll see that price declines have finally started to show up.

The declines are not much, under 2% for the most part, but its the beginning of the undeniable truth of this housing stupidity. Things should start accelerating now.

should be fun to watch

[12volts]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'I') think the landing gear is stuck but dont worry I saw this on TV....everything is going to be f......

[DesertBear2]

I have been through a large-scale housing collapse ie the Denver housing bust of the late 80s.

In Denver, the weakness started around 1985 with just a few foreclosure signs here and there. It was really just a curiosity.

By 1987, the collapse was in full swing with foreclosures in full avalanche mode. Whole townhouse developments went through foreclosure. Condos were going for $11,000. You could buy a decent 3br house for $40,000.

Foreclosures by the tens of thousands were listed in a special section of the Denver Post. Anybody could look over a listed house, call up the foreclosing agency, and make a quick deal on the phone. RE auctions were like Amway conventions with thousands bidding.

I would expect the current RE slowdown to morph into a general avalanche as we head into late 2006. The only thing that would slow this down is a recession which would keep the adjustable loans from resetting at high rates. And unlike 80s Denver, this RE bubble is nation and even worldwide. In Denver, the rest of the US economy was healthy and money poured into the local area- but this won't happen with a nation-wide RE collapse.

[evilgenius]

I think the biggest question going forward is how much asset depreciation will the boomers, who don't believe they have time to 'wait' for asset prices to come back, stand before they decide to bail on both housing and the markets and run for the bond? What sectors or individual investments will be safe in the face of such a change? The bond markets are already behaving somewhat strangely. Granted that behavior is very likely the result of oil investors doing the best they can in a steadily rising rate environment. What happens when we add a rush to invest in the bond market that isn't oil price related but asset salvation related? That demand could moderate rates, just enough to vex Bernanke and see him unable to cut when cutting should be done.

[Doly]

I wouldn't be as worried about what will happen to bonds if people start selling property and stocks for bonds, but what will happen to the housing and stock market.

I mean, if both start falling, what is going to keep the economy going?

[evilgenius]

Ah, but I am worried about the stock and housing markets. My point is that the money needed to keep those markets at historical valuations will be in the bond and pretty much trapped there because of market forces.

[perdition79]

I just pity all the people in my area who think that a 900 sq. ft. 2/1 concrete block s**thole built in the late '50's is actually worth the $170,000 they paid for it. They were all worth $55k and under less than a decade ago, and with any luck I'll be buying one for that price really soon.

Most of my family believes we're in for rough times, but my realtor aunt is still in denial. She thinks that property values will hold, doesn't see a connection between debt, energy costs, the job market, and the housing market, and hates the phrase "housing bubble."

Soft landing my butt. This is a modern-day Valujet crash into the Everglades at its finest, and it should be fun to watch.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', 'S')oft landing my butt. This is a modern-day Valujet crash into the Everglades at its finest, and it should be fun to watch.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'I')t depends on how close one is to the actual impact of the grenade. Those in the impact area will be decimated, those too close will be injured, others will be shellshocked, and then some will come in and clean up the pieces.

The grenade hasn't gone off yet though. Only the pin has been pulled. We have a few more seconds to get out of the impact zone.

[Tyler_JC]

http://business.bostonherald.com/reales ... eid=149987

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Risk of ripple effect - Housing a possible drag on Mass. economy
By Jay Fitzgerald
Boston Herald General Economics Reporter

Wednesday, July 26, 2006 - Updated: 09:02 AM EST

Massachusetts’ late-blooming economic recovery is at risk of being whacked by the dramatic slump in the state’s housing market, economists warned yesterday.

Last week, economists were somewhat optimistic about news that area companies had generated 4,400 new jobs in June and that state tax revenue continued to stream in at an impressive rate.

But a jump in home foreclosures and yesterday’s report of yet another fall in home sales and prices is causing economists to wonder whether the fragile economic recovery might be clipped by the housing market.

“This is not a good situation,” said Fred Breimyer, an economist and member of the New England Economic Partnership, referring to the housing market and its potential ripple effect on the rest of the economy.

...

“It’s going to be primarily a housing-led slowdown,” said Zandi, projecting economic growth next year of about 1.7 percent.

[jaws]

It was going to be a soft landing, but then some people found SNAKES ON THE PLANE.

[rogerhb]

Oh I do like metaphors.

A soft landing with no undercarriage on thin ice.

[Daculling]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', '
')Hehe, Makes me think about the time I asked my Grandmother who is now almost 90 to tell me about how the great depression affected her. She said basically "what depression? We never noticed it here." - at the time she was living on a small farm outside a small town in New Mexico.

-G

[MountainHiker]

I think the folks who moved through the past depression without noticing it bring up a good point. Your attitude, where you live, and how you live can make a huge difference in getting through tough times.

I personally love going backpacking and getting by for several days in the middle of nowhere with only my wits and those things in my pack. I know a lot of other people who consider using an outhouse as a horrible experience. Admittedly, a backpacking trip is different than years of depression. However, those folks who can more easily distinguish the difference between their wants and needs, or who have fewer needs and wants from the start should weather things much easier.

Personally, I'm not too worried about my family and me. What worries me more is what other people will do if their wants or perceived needs aren't met. I don't want to be around too many of them!