PeakOil is You
Waiting for the lights to go out
Re: Waiting for the lights to go out
by rogerhb » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 21:03:38
How many people here still prefer to do mental arithmetic or long division rather than use a calculator?
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Waiting for the lights to go out
by eric_b » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 21:17:00
A rambling article but interesting.
Jack, I see this article also references the piece you mentioned in the energy groups about the declining level of human innovation (Jonathan Huebner)
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/starkey/2 ... uebner.pdf
My gut reaction to this was 'no way', but after giving it some thought over the past several days I'm forced to agree - fundamental innovation may well be declining.
AS an example, consider computer science. There's been a lot of progress made at increasing processor speeds and the amount of memory available, but conceptually little has changed since Von Neumann came up with the concept of storing both data and code in the same (memory) space - a load/store architecture. The fruits of this old concept are still being refined, but the fundamental innovations that led to modern computers are now many decades old. Computer software still remains difficult and tedious to write, and programs remain very brittle and easily broken.
I think most of the big breakthroughs in physics occurred in the 19th and first half of the twentieth centuries. The determination that matter and energy are fundamentally the same and that most of the mass/energy in the atom are found in the nucleus lead to atomic energy and weapons. No one has been able to come up with a model to explain what's going on at the quantum level. String theory is a complete joke in my opinion.
AS to what's causing this slowdown... who knows. While I'd hope we're not reaching some sort of fundamental limit of the human brain/mind this may be possible. I'd like to think that with a different value set, culture and improved education we could turn this around, but I'm just guessing.
Jack, I see this article also references the piece you mentioned in the energy groups about the declining level of human innovation (Jonathan Huebner)
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/starkey/2 ... uebner.pdf
My gut reaction to this was 'no way', but after giving it some thought over the past several days I'm forced to agree - fundamental innovation may well be declining.
AS an example, consider computer science. There's been a lot of progress made at increasing processor speeds and the amount of memory available, but conceptually little has changed since Von Neumann came up with the concept of storing both data and code in the same (memory) space - a load/store architecture. The fruits of this old concept are still being refined, but the fundamental innovations that led to modern computers are now many decades old. Computer software still remains difficult and tedious to write, and programs remain very brittle and easily broken.
I think most of the big breakthroughs in physics occurred in the 19th and first half of the twentieth centuries. The determination that matter and energy are fundamentally the same and that most of the mass/energy in the atom are found in the nucleus lead to atomic energy and weapons. No one has been able to come up with a model to explain what's going on at the quantum level. String theory is a complete joke in my opinion.
AS to what's causing this slowdown... who knows. While I'd hope we're not reaching some sort of fundamental limit of the human brain/mind this may be possible. I'd like to think that with a different value set, culture and improved education we could turn this around, but I'm just guessing.
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Re: Waiting for the lights to go out
by SoothSayer » Mon 10 Jul 2006, 03:40:29
Jonathan Huebner is actually identifying a continuing shift from individual learning to social learning that has resulted from more readily available and advancing technology .
This is a major change in Western society. I see it with my children.
The ubiquitous mobile phone plus endless texting plus Web chat rooms has turned children and young people into members of groups rather than individuals.
The group can survive anywhere ... but you should here the moans when the mobile phones fail or are out of range of a signal.
I do NOT think that this is a trivial change ... I really do wonder where the next Pasteurs, Bairds, Feynmanns and Einsteins are going to come from.
I suspect that we may see far fewer standalone gifted individuals in the future.
Technology will save us!
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by WildRose » Mon 10 Jul 2006, 10:07:54
The main focus of our "waiting" right now seems to be a scramble for a liquid fuel replacement. We want to mitigate the effects of PO by ensuring there is no interruption in the miles we log in our personal transportation and our delivery trucks. Does anyone believe the world can keep turning without all of this driving? Is there a viable alternative to our need to drive?
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by strider3700 » Mon 10 Jul 2006, 12:30:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', 'D')oes anyone believe the world can keep turning without all of this driving? Is there a viable alternative to our need to drive?
Of course the world will keep moving along without driving. There is no need to drive. The fact that we're very overpopulated and the correction will kill billions doesn't mean an end to human life on earth, it just means an end to life as we know it. Somethings can't be changed, we will have to correct overshoot at some point.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: Waiting for the lights to go out
by shortonoil » Mon 10 Jul 2006, 13:02:58
SoothSayer said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') do NOT think that this is a trivial change ... I really do wonder where the next Pasteurs, Bairds, Feynmanns and Einsteins are going to come from.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') do NOT think that this is a trivial change ... I really do wonder where the next Pasteurs, Bairds, Feynmanns and Einsteins are going to come from.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Our development of technologies has significantly increased our utilization of social learning. High speed travel, compared to our 3 to 4 mile per hour walking speed, and instantaneous communications has disseminated knowledge throughout the world. Our tendency to get on line to find the answer to a question has become ubiquitous. Our expectation is that someone out there in cyber world knows more than we do. With six and one half billion people to draw knowledge from, this is probably true. This instantaneous distribution of ideas may have, however, reached its point of diminishing returns. Workable concepts as well as unworkable thoughts and ideas are likewise transferred. It requires qualitative thinking to distinguish between the various opposing views. Qualitative thinking, however, is a by product of individual learning and that appears to be in decline.
Our culture has entered a feed back loop that is decreasing its adaptation capabilities. Our inability to cope with our society’s three major perils; over population, resource depletion and climate change, is an indication that our historic cultural devises are failing in the face of new adversarial conditions.
There is an aphorism that commonly appears in text on General Systems Thinking. It states; “the little boy said; They taught me how to spell banana, but they didn’t teach me when to quite”. Without instinctual knowledge our human capabilities face very much the same dilemma. Our power and ability to mimic has undoubtedly been the back bone of the cultures that we have created. Our inability or unwillingness to control this capability may be the result of the fact that we have been unaware of its magnitude and significance. We have failed to realize that our power of mimicry is innate. Our universal application of it is learned.
The power of mimicry is the glue that binds our society. It is the catalyst that has given us the wonder of diversity. It has given us a plethora of gothic art in various applications of taste and quality. It has given us a world of beautiful and delightful quilts and skinny entertaining kids trying to learn the hula-hoop. It is also a double edged sword. Our unawareness of why we do and accept things has left us vulnerable to accepting many thoughts and beliefs. Some of these are inimical to ourselves and also to our world.
Excerpt from:
Mind of a Predator - Transition2 Chapter 3
To be realeased, Jan 07
')
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Re: Waiting for the lights to go out
by aldente » Sat 22 Jul 2006, 06:38:43
SoothSayer, your current Avatar is nauseating. I rather keep my brain uninjected. Then again this is what TV does to the current populus until the PO swich flips from one side to the other.
I keep promoting the idea that the Hubbert Curve is flaued in so far as the problem starts at the split second at which the general gasoline station has the utomost miniscule supply problem.
There is no second half. It will hit us like a sword decapitating.
PO actually in this context will be absolutely precise and accurate to the minute.
I keep promoting the idea that the Hubbert Curve is flaued in so far as the problem starts at the split second at which the general gasoline station has the utomost miniscule supply problem.
There is no second half. It will hit us like a sword decapitating.
PO actually in this context will be absolutely precise and accurate to the minute.
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