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Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

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Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 11:38:03

Bryant Urstadt writes about the Peak Oil phenomenon in the cover story of the new Harper's Magazine that I just got in the mail.

He does a pretty good job, traveling to the Yellow Springs conference and hanging out with the New York Peak Oil group. He obviously read a lot of the books that have come out in the last couple of years on the subject.

He also outlines the American history of end-of-the-world movements, and talks about how the p-o movement resembles some of these. He discusses the idea of lifeboats and of ecotopian survival communities. He "gets it" on how hard this would be on any kind of scale.

But he does not ridicule the movement, because he thinks they might be right this time. The facts do seem difficult to ignore.

Anyway, this article is well written and should be on the newstands within the next few days. Harper's, of course, does not have a Web presence, so I guess you'll have to buy it, or go to the library.


:-D
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby green_achers » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 13:22:27

Are they actually using the term, "Liberal Apocalypse?" What is that supposed to mean?
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Grimnir » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 13:27:02

Presumably a "conservative apocalypse" is one in which Jesus, terrorists, or nuclear weapons kill everyone, while a "liberal apocalypse" involves resource shortages, overpopulation, climate change, etc.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby NTBKtrader » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 13:34:09

Couldn't you have both at the same time? What kind of Apocalypse would it be then?
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 13:46:09

Labeling it a "liberal" apocalypse seems to be a kind of ridicule....
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 14:14:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'L')udi, I thought it was a smear also but after reading the article I understand and agree. Some Christians want this decadent society to end in a biblical hell and some environmentalists want it to end in secular flames :)

I have a good friend who is a life-long hippy, back-to-the-lander, permaculturist who (to paraphrase) 'has been waiting for peak oil all her life. ' I also hate the stupidity, greed, and especially gross materialism of american culture and I want that to end. Peak oil is a nice way to stop the machine.

The article was about the peakoil movement, not the geology. It portrayed the peakoilers with affection and respected them without resorting to pomposity. It was a fun read for me. I'll bet it opened a lot of eyes WIDE 8O


I'm not sure why someone would be waiting to get poor, along with most other people getting poor. I mean, I sort of understand what you're saying, but, no, I don't like it. It's not a good thing, not a thing to be looked forward to but something bad that might be a little less bad than some other really horribly bad things (which might happen anyway).
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Chaparral » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 14:17:01

I read the article yesterday on the newsstand. I highly recommend it. It is interesting to note that a number of the (us) peakniks are financial advisors and others who have to say one thing to their sheeple and buy another at the coin shop. I agree with pstarr's sentiments.

I also couldn't help but wonder who in that article are here on this forum. There seemed to be some vaguely similar personalities.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Leanan » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 15:06:04

Neat. It looks like it's actually the cover story:

Image
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 20:25:03

I didn't really care for the article. He spends a good deal of time going into apocalypse cults in American history, which is really trying to stick a square peg in a round hole. It's most blatant when he tries to go after Hubbert's prediction of the date of world peak, describing the peak-oilists as backpedalling with the OPEC embargo.

Hubbert came up with the modelling techniques that produce the prediction. He wasn't a Nostradamus predicting the date based on some immutable divine predestination. The date was ancillary to the model, and the model is fully capable of being updated based on new data. Isn't that what ASPO has been busy doing?

The "liberal apocalypse" or "leftist Left Behind" describes a certain Schadenfreude expressed a fair amount in discussion which overemphasizes the satisfaction of the peak oil hobbyists like you and me who with a mixture of fear and anticipation cannot help but speculate on what will happen.

For Harper's first full blown peak oil article to not mention ASPO or Simmons, or any other hard research by name, but instead focus on the utopianism of a few stragglers at the Peak Oil convention is pretty shoddy.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby MattSavinar » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 23:03:17

did he give links/mentions to any prominent PO sites?

Here's something I find truly amazing: of all the peak oil articles by the mainstream press I think the best one was the Fortune Magazine article on Richar Rainwater.

Now I got my handsome mug photographed for that so obviously I'm biased. However, even if I remove that I still think it was the best because:

A. It said (more or less) we're in really, really deep shit

B. It backed up A by referring to an Alpha-Male with $500 million in cold hard cash he's put on the table to back this up.

If you know human psychology (herd mentality) you understand why "B" was a great way to give the issue credibility.

On the other hand the Harpers article seems to link "A" with whacko conspiracy doom cults so if you know human psychology that was a great way to take away credibility but in a subtle enough way the author can't be knocked for not reporting the issue honestly.

Best,

Matt
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby gg3 » Sat 22 Jul 2006, 00:09:52

What gets my goat is that, for the sake of an "Aren't We So Clever" moment, Harpers' has just managed to pigeonhole the issue as being partisan. Which it is not, as the regular partisan flamefests here demonstrate clearly.

But what happens is, if the article succeeds at that, then no matter what else happens, approximately half of the electorate will pooh-pooh the issue.

On the other hand maybe that's a good thing. AutoDarwinization is merciful compared to a lot of other things that can happen to people in times of overshoot & collapse.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Sat 22 Jul 2006, 01:07:52

I didn't care for the apocalyptic end-of-the-world cultism either. But I guess he was after the sociological take on the phenomenon of peak oil.

A hard thing for good journalists is that this is a hard subject to nail down with concrete information. There's a lot of circumstantial evidence that oil may have already peaked, but where's the proof?

So you're left with what may or may not be a millinary movement.

How would you guys write a major national magazine piece on the sociology of the peak-oil movement?
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby aldente » Sat 22 Jul 2006, 01:22:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', ' ')Harper's, of course, does not have a Web presence, so I guess you'll have to buy it, or go to the library.


This is not the case, but since they live of their subsrcribers don´t expect the article to be posted free at this point (it might be at some point though).

http://www.harpers.org/

Also, check out Harpers Index on the left while you're on their site, sort of entertaining.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby KhanCEO » Sat 22 Jul 2006, 02:16:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'd')id he give links/mentions to any prominent PO sites?

Here's something I find truly amazing: of all the peak oil articles by the mainstream press I think the best one was the Fortune Magazine article on Richar Rainwater.

Matt


It was that issue of Fortune Magazine that I learned about your site Matt. Just thought I should let you know. That article also confirmed my thoughts about Peak Oil, I figured "someone" wealthly would understand this problem then take action.

Mr. Rainwater made billions guessing. Now, he is guessing again.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 22 Jul 2006, 02:28:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') subscribe to and I read Harpers articles with great relish. It is the oldest magazine in the US-I believe several hundred years. This article was up to their very high standards. The guy neither dissed nor bowed to peak oil. He treated the theories and the oddball characters in a refreshing way. It was very good.

Matt, sometimes I think you use this alpha male pissing contest thing as an excuse for being a lawyer at heart. Not everyone is always sniffing crotch and planning dominance.

You need to learn about human evolutionary behavior and the role that altuism, propagated by group selection, has in pack and tribal coherence. Suffice it to say, people do act honorably and selflessly for simple generous reasons, even if the behavior is programmed by our genes.


I've said it many times: within the tribe, yes altruism if highly prevalent.

It is most prevalent when banding together to take the resources of others. Think of the heroics a military unit is capable of, amazing sacrifices are made for other members of the unit. Think "band of brothers."

The flip side is My Lai, Haditha, etc.

Best,

Matt
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby green_achers » Sat 22 Jul 2006, 08:42:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'L')udi, I thought it was a smear also but after reading the article I understand and agree. Some Christians want this decadent society to end in a biblical hell and some environmentalists want it to end in secular flames :)

I have a good friend who is a life-long hippy, back-to-the-lander, permaculturist who (to paraphrase) 'has been waiting for peak oil all her life. ' I also hate the stupidity, greed, and especially gross materialism of american culture and I want that to end. Peak oil is a nice way to stop the machine.

The article was about the peakoil movement, not the geology. It portrayed the peakoilers with affection and respected them without resorting to pomposity. It was a fun read for me. I'll bet it opened a lot of eyes WIDE 8O


None of which has beans to do with anything remotely resembling libeeralism. I would think writers for Harpers would have a rudimentary education, at least.
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Re: Harper's -- "Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse"

Unread postby skeptic » Sat 22 Jul 2006, 09:43:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('green_achers', 'A')re they actually using the term, "Liberal Apocalypse?" What is that supposed to mean?


Isnt 'Liberal' used as a term of abuse in America, in the same vein as 'tosser' or 'knobhead' would be in the UK?

So is there some veiled abuse towards the Peak Oil proposal from Harpers?

Or maybe its just plain ignorance. Harpers must think the Peak Oil theory comes from one end of the political spectrum, whereas in reality its a scientific theory relating discovery to production curves and essentially (as is all science) apolitical - peak oil theory supporters coming from all political backgrounds from far right to far left.
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