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Destruction of all things local

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Unread postby Pops » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 15:41:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', ' ')believe ADM (and friends) are flexible enough to adapt to conditions as they change, as long as the change isn't on the scale of total collapse in less than five years.


It might happen, I don't know.

However, contrary to popular belief around here the folks a GM and Ford are probably pretty smart and it certainly would have been easier for them to switch from SUVs to smaller cars than it will be for the mega-middlemen in the ag processing business to de-centralize their processing, mega feedlots etc, to a bunch of little regional meat packers, grist mills and chicken houses, etc.

I doubt if I had a goose that laid golden eggs I would kill it and change to making feather pillows while there was still a change it might squeeze out just one more…
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Unread postby rwwff » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 15:44:24

You're right, they won't kill the golden egg laying goose, but they might not buy exactly the same type of goose to replace it when it dies of old age. I think information systems may allow decentralization in an efficient way, something that wasn't possible when ADM began its current course with centralized processing.

Which is why I put the caveat in there about the speed of change. If it is too fast, all kinds of bad things could happen to these middlemen and processors.
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Re: Destruction of all things local

Unread postby rwwff » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 15:48:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'N')ow only about 2% of the US population farms, their average age is mid to late fifties (near retirement age). There's very little base from which to expand this demographic, people will have to start from scratch, with little or no background in diversified farming and with next to no chance of learning from someone who is already doing it. I just hope the local agriculture "trend" gets going soon.....


Note to everyone... If your grandfather taught you stuff on a farm, now would be a really good time to try and refresh that knowledge, even if you don't grow stuff on a commercial scale now, or even if you want to use a different method (permaculture vs. tilled for instance).
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Re: Destruction of all things local

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 15:49:58

Change in practices occurs very slowly in agriculture. Such things as no till, and integrated pest management, and other kinds of "earth friendly" practices have been very very slow to be adopted by farmers, who are paradoxically suspicious and gullible at the same time.
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Re: Destruction of all things local

Unread postby Pops » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 16:03:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('foodnotlawns', 'O')ther than that, I've spent less than 100 dollars, and I've already produced about 500 worth of top quality food...


Of course you can, but here is the rub.

I’m almost 50 years old and I can remember the ads when I was a kid extolling the virtues of Corn Fed Beef, I can also remember supermarket beef with yellow fat.

Anyone else?

What changed was the advent of feedlots that finished beef on grain – corn primarily. The mom of the 60s loved it - it was good, juicy and tender.

Think you could sell grass fed beef today? Not on anything but a boutique basis I think.

That’s one example of the consumer getting what they want and like the SUV example above the consumer is used to tomatoes, peaches and sweet corn in January.

The price will go up enough eventually that she won’t be able to afford it. But by then I wonder if she will be able to pay you enough for the great stuff you raise to make it worth your while.

She will be down to flour, beans, potatoes, and oatmeal and a little milk and eggs when she is flush. And mostly those aren't raised in a truck patch.

I know I am being more pessimistic that I normally am but I’ve been sitting here cruising the net and trying to noodle this as best I can and the massive asset inertia, as Monte puts it, just floors me!
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Re: Destruction of all things local

Unread postby Pops » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 16:38:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'C')hange in practices occurs very slowly in agriculture. Such things as no till, and integrated pest management, and other kinds of "earth friendly" practices have been very very slow to be adopted by farmers, who are paradoxically suspicious and gullible at the same time.


This and your previous post are key points, me thinks.

Just like the cabinet maker of today wouldn’t think of using a handsaw (or maybe even know how to use one) to cut a panel because he has a cnc machine (basically a computer controlled articulated overhead router), the young, modern, leveraged, farmer of today has no concept of not using a gps enabled tractor to vary the fertilizer and chemical application down to areas as small as his booms are wide – less maybe.

Not that the practices of the grandfather are necessarily better – worse in many cases, but the young farmer has no idea how to get by like the old guy. IOW he is a specialist and though he may have less of a commute - he buys his tomatoes, peaches and sweet corn in January just like the suburbanite. That may be too broad a generalization but I believe the essence is true.

And I also believe he is as stubborn as granddad – this is what I learned at the university and this is the way it should be, dang it! He is just as tied to his technology as granddad or any software developer on this board.

Just because there are some of us gardeners out there that can grow nice tomatoes – it would be a bitch trying to survive without something to pour tomato sauce on.
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Unread postby grabby » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 16:49:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', ' ') I think information systems may allow decentralization in an efficient way, something that wasn't possible when ADM began its current course with centralized processing.
.


I don't think yo understand. Information control systems are the problem, you want to stay away from any farmers that track. Or grow your own...You need to have sources that are going to be functional after the tracking grinds to a halt. We will be left with nothing but a few local farmers with a handfoll of old dried seeds. it will be tight.Post peakoil or post tracking technology, we will still have to eat and we wont transport very far.

mom and pop farmers, find them now this is how you will eat. Support them, work for them, help them., buy from them support them . You will definitely need them when something happens to our information technology.

Grandpas ways may have been "worse" in some ways, but his ways are the only ways it will continue after peak. Learn grandpas ways before grandpa dies. If he is alive ask him a lot of questions and write down his answers so you'll never forget.

P.s. we had spaghetti sauce and tomatoes all winter and they came from our garden, it is called "canning". You dont have to learn to do this you could survive on dried legumes each winter but, hey, why not can some goodies?
Last edited by grabby on Thu 20 Jul 2006, 17:08:28, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Destruction of all things local

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 17:00:49

Grandpa's ways ruined the soil/carrying capacity in a few generations. I can see this by observing the farmland around me. I think I'd rather do better than Grandpa's ways. I know a lot of people think "we must return to the old ways" but, in my opinion, many of the old ways were just plain a bad idea, too much labor, not based on scientific knowledge, etc. I really do believe we can do better.
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Re: Destruction of all things local

Unread postby Pops » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 17:14:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'N')ote to everyone... If your grandfather taught you stuff on a farm, now would be a really good time to try and refresh that knowledge, even if you don't grow stuff on a commercial scale now, or even if you want to use a different method (permaculture vs. tilled for instance).


I feel very fortunate to have several, shall we say, well-seasoned neighbors in addition to the stories I heard as a youngster to help me get along. Didn’t really plan it that way, just luck. I also have some of the Small Farm Today variety, as well as a few Mother Earth News types.

Just to reiterate, Missouri is a great place for this type of mixing. The first pioneers were dirt poor but came to understand the Ozarks. Then a few hippies came and now its home to some modern refugees from the coasts - like me :) .

My mentor and as his wife terms him The supervisor over at your place is an old hillbilly Ozarker from way back that knows every season and proverb there is, a gal down the road came from Las Vegas 25 years ago, has a little organic truck garden, runs the local farmers market and lives in a remodeled milk barn that was once owned by a slaveholder, the second time I talked to the next neighbor south (the guy that does our alfalfa on shares) he brought up a subscription card for Small Farm Today, and another fella up the road the other way invited us in for a beer - we offered him a ride when his tire blew out lives, in the same house where his great great granddaddy grew up and hid from the redleggs in the corn patch.

Anyway it is a great place to be and though I am sure there are others I would recommend it to anyone with the desire (and so that Thuja doesn’t jump me) the wherewithal to make a big move.
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Re: Destruction of all things local

Unread postby grabby » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 17:19:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'G')randpa's ways ruined the soil/carrying capacity in a few generations. I can see this by observing the farmland around me. I think I'd rather do better than Grandpa's ways. I know a lot of people think "we must return to the old ways" but, in my opinion, many of the old ways were just plain a bad idea, too much labor, not based on scientific knowledge, etc. I really do believe we can do better.


The ones that ruined their soil went out of business.
The wise old european farmers who farmed their own lands in small plots (thats all they had) have been farming for hundreds of years.
They knew to rotate crops.

for sure we need to do the best we can, american farmers used to non sustainable farming wont make it.

we have to be satisfied with a lower yield this is why they rejected a lot of sustainable ideas. They cant afford the competition of overseas cheap labor and then try to grow sustainably will put them out of business.

Our best ploy is to keep them alive here and skeeking along until transport failures removes overseas competition.

government will not tax Nafta countries they are in the business of putting our farmers out of business indirectly it seems. so until oil gets higher and prices become exorbitant, we can only do minimal training.

once demand and prices go up locally and fertilizers unavailable, they young farmers will learn the tricks of sustainable ag from the old knowledgable ones. hopefully
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Unread postby Pops » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 17:44:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'G')randpa's ways ruined the soil/carrying capacity in a few generations.

Yep, they harvested the soil just like the loggers harvested the old growth.

My point is that the young guys are now simply harvesting fossil fuel and technology and though they may have learned some of the lessons of the dust bowl that may fall away as times get hard.

Hence my pessimistic attitude when talking about the system as a whole.

As you pointed out in your previous posts, farmers are risk adverse, both the young and old. And to top it off they are now supported on both the upstream and downstream end by hydrocarbons.

In my mind we need to return to the old ways of diversity and locality that grandpa knew while keeping the knowledge gained during the oil fueled age – we won’t get that chance again.

Kind of a big order tho…
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Unread postby rwwff » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 18:35:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'I') don't think yo understand. Information control systems are the problem, you want to stay away from any farmers that track. Or grow your own...You need to have sources that are going to be functional after the tracking grinds to a halt. We will be left with nothing but a few local farmers with a handfoll of old dried seeds. it will be tight.Post peakoil or post tracking technology, we will still have to eat and we wont transport very far.


I think you are presupposing the ultimate-doom type scenario, where there is no electric grid remaining. I think this is an extreme outlier probability, and not something that I would consider it wise to plan for. A modest hedge, perhaps.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')om and pop farmers, find them now this is how you will eat.


Nice to have your support... but what are you going to pay me for 10 lbs of corn meal or a 25 lb sack of long grain rice? Thats been the question that I've been struggling with on the outlier scenarios. Property tax on ag land isn't a lot, but it is due annually in US$... So I will need some cash sales. If I sell to someone who's running a farmers market, how is that any different from trying to sell to spun-off grocery stores of the future?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')P.s. we had spaghetti sauce and tomatoes all winter and they came from our garden, it is called "canning". You dont have to learn to do this you could survive on dried legumes each winter but, hey, why not can some goodies?


Canning sucks right now. It costs more to can than it does to buy, by a long shot; and those lids are no more sustainable than information technology.

If the grid stays up, electrical chest freezers will remain more cost effective. So I think the better combination is to plan on being able to freeze stuff, but be prepared to survive on dry goods and dairy.
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Re: Destruction of all things local

Unread postby Pops » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 18:54:09

Grabby, it isn’t fair to edit your post to add stuff from succeeding posts – especially for those of us who have to take a while to go back and look what you added! :)

Good for you that you could grow and can your own sauce, as well as grow, harvest, thresh and grind your own flour to make that pasta – I haven’t progressed (or regressed) that far!

The staples are the key – the staff of life as it were. The ability to get a little flour and fat trumps all the State Fair, Blue Ribbons tomatoes you or I could ever grow should times get tough.

Take that to the bank.

I also would have sworn you said to keep the local farmers to yourself – maybe I am mistaken but I do agree with your current comment because supporting and promoting them is really the only way to encourage a change.
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Re: Destruction of all things local

Unread postby grabby » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 20:28:25

I just changed a wrong statement, sorry if it caused difficulty.

Yes,m it is cheaper to buy imported food, but I don't want to encourage them.

I'll just keep buying local, thank you.
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