[Graeme]

Running Out of Oil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Proven" oil reserves, oil that's economically and technologically recoverable, are estimated to be more than 1.1 trillion barrels. That's enough oil, at current usage rates, to fuel the world's economy for 38 years, according to Leonardo Maugeri, vice president for the Italian energy company ENI. Mr. Maugeri provides a wealth of information about energy in "Two Cheers for Expensive Oil," published by Foreign Affairs (March/April 2006) and reprinted on the same date in Current.

There are an additional 2 trillion barrels of "recoverable" reserves. Mr. Maugeri says these oil reserves will probably meet the "proven" standard in a few years as technological improvement and increased sub-soil knowledge come online. Estimates of recoverable oil don't include the huge deposits of "unconventional" oil such as Canadian tar sands and U.S. shale oil, plus there are vast areas of our planet yet to be fully explored. For decades, alarmists have claimed we're running out of oil. In 1919, the U.S. Geological Survey predicted that world oil production would peak in nine years. During the 1970s, the Club of Rome report, "The Limits to Growth," said that, assuming no rise in consumption, all known oil reserves would be entirely consumed in just 31 years.

[NEOPO]

Oh thats hilarious.
Did anyone cetch the other articles on that website...oh man.
These people are just waiting for the ice to melt so they can exploit further.
I think I smell oil, big oil, big oil money going to economists that say what big oil likes to hear.

I thought that 180 bbls of canadian tar sands was added to the proven reserve estimates?

Mr. Williams sites the USGS in 1919 and the Club of Rome in 1970 claiming either "peak" or "all gone" yet if we take the numbers at that time - were they right?

After all the club of rome outlook was way before the big adjustments upwards of OPEC reserves and excluding all oil found to date and I bet that similar reasoning was behind the 1919 USGS assertion.

Of course they can make mistakes but did they is the real question?

anyways...heres the second article down past this one.
Keep Our "Addiction" to Oil, End Our Allergy to Self-Assertion

Good stuff!!! that entire page is a gas thanks

[KevO]

you know, everyone, pretty much without exception, that says we are OK with oil works for or is paid (off) by Big Oil.

And anybody who looks at the world oil situation/geology who has NOTHING to do with Big oil WHATSOEVER pretty much without exception, says we're fucked.

strange that. who should I 'believe'?

[Graeme]

That's exactly my point. There is"enough" oil there for everyone. However, we are not only going to squabble over what is left (e.g. Iraq) but also we will destroy the environment while we go about extracting this (e.g. Arctic and Antarctic). These are the key issues at stake here. Not peak oil. How do you persuade Big Oil and allied politicians to accelerate the generation of clean energy technologies?

[Sleepybag]

According to the explanation on the website Reserve Growth for Dummies, it is logical for 'proven' reserves to grow over time, until you run out of 'probable' reserves to eat. As time goes by, engineers learn more about an oil field, and therefor can make a better estimation of the oil that is still present. Therefor, oil companies are normally underestimating their proven reserves at first, only to upgrade 'probable' oil to 'proven reserves' over time. The 'proven' figure is useless for estimating the oil in the field that used to be present or will be extracted in the future. What you really want to have is the 'probable' (50%) figure and the cumulative production so far.

[bobbyald]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring the 1970s, the Club of Rome report, "The Limits to Growth," said that, assuming no rise in consumption, all known oil reserves would be entirely consumed in just 31 years.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobbyald', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring the 1970s, the Club of Rome report, "The Limits to Growth," said that, assuming no rise in consumption, all known oil reserves would be entirely consumed in just 31 years.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yet another delusional economist', '"')That reflects the awesome control that radical environmentalists have over Congress."

[shortonoil]

.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are an additional 2 trillion barrels of "recoverable" reserves. Mr. Maugeri says these oil reserves will probably meet the "proven" standard in a few years as technological improvement and increased sub-soil knowledge come online.

[sameu]

eroei is a bitch isn't she

[NeoPeasant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobbyald', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring the 1970s, the Club of Rome report, "The Limits to Growth," said that, assuming no rise in consumption, all known oil reserves would be entirely consumed in just 31 years.

[SchroedingersCat]

Revisiting The Limits To Growth

[Pops]

Thanks for the link Cat, I hadn't read that.

[SchroedingersCat]

You're welcome. That report is one of the things that got me looking into the peak oil thing. It also gives Simmons' current writings a bit more cred with me.