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THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread (merged)

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Re: Where are the brownouts/outages?

Postby seahorse2 » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 11:25:40

If your interested in electrical shortage issues, you might try this thread.

Review of the Olduvai Gorge
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Re: Where are the brownouts/outages?

Postby Pablo2079 » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 11:36:29

I believe there have been problems with overtaxing the energy transmission infrastructure. You can only pump so much juice through the wires.
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Re: Where are the brownouts/outages?

Postby Z » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 11:39:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pablo2079', 'w')here are the outages?


Ken Lay died, remember ?
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Re: Where are the brownouts/outages?

Postby Pops » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 12:14:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Z', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pablo2079', 'w')here are the outages?


Ken Lay died, remember ?

:-D

This page has links to the various ISOs (Independent System Operators) that give system status for the different reigons:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independen ... m_Operator

Here is the real-time status for the Midwest region which is a stage 1 Alert at this writing:
http://www.midwestiso.org/page/Real-Time+Info
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Where are the brownouts/outages?

Postby nth » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 12:15:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hy should there be outages? We have way more coal than we need and natural gas is plentiful.


Well, for the last two years, we have been hearing warnings that we don't have enough natural gas and don't have enough power plants. Brown outs are going to be more and more common. Coal will be limited due to trains already at capacity.

Anyways, let's wait for a train wreck or a hurricane shutting down natural gas.
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Re: Where are the brownouts/outages?

Postby Pablo2079 » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 12:52:34

Thanks Pops.... interesting info.

I was just looking at the Bloomberg Energy Site... wow... Electricity sure has jumped. Almost doubled since last week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Mid-Columbia, firm on-peak, spot 71.91 .00 .00 07/14

Palo Verde, firm on-peak, spot 98.40 .00 .00 07/14

Bloomberg, firm on-peak, day ahead spot/West Coast 96.31 .00 .00 07/14
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Re: Where are the brownouts/outages?

Postby ColossalContrarian » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 12:54:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hy should there be outages? We have way more coal than we need and natural gas is plentiful.


Well, for the last two years, we have been hearing warnings that we don't have enough natural gas and don't have enough power plants. Brown outs are going to be more and more common. Coal will be limited due to trains already at capacity.

Anyways, let's wait for a train wreck or a hurricane shutting down natural gas.


Everytime in the past that I remember brownouts occuring was not because of the lack of fuel but the great demand everyone using AC was putting on power grids. The massive amounts of power need for an entire city (New York, Chicago) to be cooled by AC caused the power plants to run above normal capacity.

I haven't seen problems in the Denver area, I mostly remember them being in the Midwest (Chicago) and East Coast (New York)
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Re: Where are the brownouts/outages?

Postby SchroedingersCat » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 13:36:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he California ISO hereby issues a Statewide ALERT Notice,
effective 07/17/2006 13:00 through 07/17/2006 19:00.

Reason: The ISO is anticipating high loads and temperatures across the ISO Control Area

Maximum conservation efforts are requested but without disruption to employment, commerce, or industrial production. Energy market participants are encouraged to offer additional Supplemental Energy and Ancillary Service bids.

Monitor system conditions on the California ISO Website at www.caiso.com and check with local electric utilities for additional information. This message was sent by Market Operations at the California ISO.


Today will be our third 'voluntary' conservation day this summer. Based on our contract with PG&E we need to shed about 62KW of load by noon or get hit with a 500% penalty. Trust me, we do. We shut off non-essential systems, lighting and cooling. We fire up a 25kw diesel generator on the roof to make up the difference. Many other buildings do this sort of thing as well. Without these savings, we would be seeing brownouts and blackouts.
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Re: Where are the brownouts/outages?

Postby Don35 » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 14:12:50

Just saw on the Weather Channel that Denver had power outages. A museum closed because the AC couldn't handle the load. Unusually high temperatures there.
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Blackouts Across America

Postby Armageddon » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 15:31:59

With these extreme temperatures across the country, blackouts have to be a possibility. Our infrastructure hasnt been upgraded in a long time according to simmons. I would also like to know what this heatwave is doing to the oil demand.
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Re: possible blackouts ?

Postby lateStarter » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 15:45:57

Give it a couple of days. Most electricity for AC is generated from NG in the US. Has no direct relation to oil. The general problem (as others have pointed out in other related threads) is that the grid is not equipped to handle the load. More outdated infrastructure. As long as enough NG is available, technically it should be no problem (ok, maybe lots of coal too....)

I'm sure it will be a problem soon. And we haven't even hit August yet.... Just think of it as a trial run....
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Re: possible blackouts ?

Postby rwwff » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 16:33:04

Our location is doing much better this year than we have in years past. At least so far. I bought a generator anyway, so maybe its now acting as a Murphy's Law Charm Bracelet...
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Re: possible blackouts ?

Postby Armageddon » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 18:08:58

does it take more natural gas to heat a house or cool a house ?
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Re: possible blackouts ?

Postby Prince » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 18:22:40

I'd say very possible. We just had an announcement over the loudspeaker PA system at work:

"With the high temperatures <City name> Public Utilities is running dangerously high level of electricity right now and has asked <my company name> to reduce any excess usage of electricity. Please turn off any monitors, lights, computers, or machines that are absolutely not needed."

The temps have been about 95 here today, and I live in a city size of only about 95,000. My company (hires about 4000) is one of the biggest electricity consumers in the city.
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Re: possible blackouts ?

Postby Prince » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 18:24:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', 'd')oes it take more natural gas to heat a house or cool a house ?


Well, it would depend on how that NG is being used, but I'd say it takes more to cool.

Typically houses are heated with NG directly, not electricity. So the NG does not have to be converted to electricity then to heat. With A/C, however, they are powered directly by electricity (generated by NG), so running A/C drains the grid much more than heating by NG would.
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Re: possible blackouts ?

Postby Armageddon » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 18:30:58

I have read that the past couple winters have come very close to runing out of ng, and thankfully they were mild. So this heat wave cant help the ng storage for the upcoming winter, especially if the rest of the summer is hot which is very likely considering the pattern we are in.
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Re: possible blackouts ?

Postby Prince » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 18:35:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'P')rince, may we know what state you are in?


Minnesota. It's typically hot this time of year (80-90), but the last 3 days have been very hot (95+). Add the humidity and high dewpoint, and the heat index has been over 100 F.
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Re: possible blackouts ?

Postby Kingcoal » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 18:57:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'G')ive it a couple of days. Most electricity for AC is generated from NG in the US. Has no direct relation to oil. The general problem (as others have pointed out in other related threads) is that the grid is not equipped to handle the load. More outdated infrastructure. As long as enough NG is available, technically it should be no problem (ok, maybe lots of coal too....)

I'm sure it will be a problem soon. And we haven't even hit August yet.... Just think of it as a trial run....


According to the DOE:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ear-to-date, 50.6 percent of the Nation’s electric power was generated at coal-fired plants (Figure 1). Nuclear plants contributed 20.6 percent, 15.8 percent was generated by natural gas-fired plants, and 1.6 percent was generated at petroleum-fired plants. Conventional hydroelectric power provided 8.4 percent of the total, while other renewables (primarily biomass, but also geothermal, solar, and wind) and other miscellaneous energy sources generated the remaining electric power. Figure 2 shows net generation by month for the most recent 12-month period through April 2006.
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Re: possible blackouts ?

Postby lotrfan55345 » Mon 17 Jul 2006, 20:12:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'P')rince, may we know what state you are in?


Minnesota. It's typically hot this time of year (80-90), but the last 3 days have been very hot (95+). Add the humidity and high dewpoint, and the heat index has been over 100 F.


You live in Duluth?
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