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PeakOil is You

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Technology can't save us---the Nasdaq Model

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Technology can't save us---the Nasdaq Model

Unread postby Kylon » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 18:34:22

You know, shrinking the human race could effectively occur, so long as we had quantum computers, and we translated that into DNA.

Then we could have superior intelligence, but we would be the size of insects.

Maybe we could modify Ants too, and then we could trade with them!

:)

This would also solve the shortage of land problem. If everyone is the size of an ant, then there would be enough room for hundreds, upon hundreds of billions of tiny humans, meanwhile not hurting the environment whatsoever.

This would also make building structures much easier, as the taller a building is, expontentially, the more expensive it is. So, building structures that are the size of Ant colonies would be relatively cheap.

We could make tiny things of every other species too! Super small horses, super small goats, super small lions, giraffes, and what not.
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Re: Technology can't save us---the Nasdaq Model

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 19 Jul 2006, 03:42:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'O')ne of the major ongoing debates on the Peak Oil site is between those who insist that technology will save us and those who say it can't, and won't.

Nasdaq has gone nowhere since 1998 (although we had that ridiculous bubble, of course---a major transfer of wealth from the many to the few). Might this serve as a model to suggest that the tech business model can't really hack it and is thus unlikely to rescue us from the consequences of Peak Oil?


It is not realistic to compare returns on the NASDAQ or the dot.com boom & bust to the technology that it spawned. There is no arguing that many useful technologies were harnessed through private & public equity even though some of those returns on investment were negative for those investors.

If you bought Microsoft, Nortel, Intel or any of the others in right before March 2000 you would have lost money. That does not mean that these companies were no bringing important technologies to market or that they were failures.

New technologies are a not a solution to peak oil. Peak oil is a geological fact. No matter how slowly you extract fossil fuels from the earth they remain a finite resource. As to whether some alternatives will be viable afterwards, of course they will be! They just may not be as good as the fossil fuels in terms of energy efficiency, so they may be relatively more expensive and necessitate changes in how the economy works.

To suggest that new technologies can not be part of the solution to dealing with post-peak oil is doomerish to the extreme. To assume that new technologies will seamlessly transition us to a brave new world without changing the underlying economy is also a fantasy. The status quo is so unsustainable in so many ways that as many have pointed out, peak oil is only one of our current problems that needs to be dealt with sooner rather than later.

Will all energy alternatives be profitable for their backers and investors? As the dot.com boom & bust showed us there need not be any correlation between profit and utility.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: Technology can't save us---the Nasdaq Model

Unread postby Doly » Wed 19 Jul 2006, 07:04:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')To suggest that new technologies can not be part of the solution to dealing with post-peak oil is doomerish to the extreme. To assume that new technologies will seamlessly transition us to a brave new world without changing the underlying economy is also a fantasy.


Perfect summary of the situation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Will all energy alternatives be profitable for their backers and investors? As the dot.com boom & bust showed us there need not be any correlation between profit and utility.


That's what makes me nervous about the current economic model. If everybody is looking for profit, and there isn't much correlation between profit and utility, there isn't much hope of useful things getting done with the priority they deserve.
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Re: Technology can't save us---the Nasdaq Model

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 19 Jul 2006, 10:15:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
That's what makes me nervous about the current economic model. If everybody is looking for profit, and there isn't much correlation between profit and utility, there isn't much hope of useful things getting done with the priority they deserve.


That is really my whole point, Doly. Well said. When you look at the Nasdaq chart for the past decade you get the idea that the model isn't working.

Ideas and research and even "solutions" aren't enough if they don't make money, and more money this year than the year before.

Let's remember that Nasdaq and its member technology companies are for the most part of recent vintage. It's still something of an experiment and still hasn't been tested by a major, widespread economic recession.

If the marketplace can't fund these companies, which have huge research budgets, who will?

My sense is that the engine of innovation that the Nasdaq represents is in the process of failing, along with the rest of it.
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