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Gossip snippet

Unread postby SoothSayer » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 06:09:48

Mods: this is Current Energy News for me so that's why it's here

Yesterday I was chatting with a local guy - it turned out that his brother is a geologist with a major oil company.

Of course I then asked if his brother had ever mentioned the oil situation. This is what I was told:

* There is a lot less oil about than most people believe
* Two major companies have greatly over-estimated their reserves
* They don't really know where to look for new oil
* New oil is costing a lot more than expected to find & extract
* No more huge finds are expected

Until now I have been relying on web-sites, the media etc for my oil information. As I don't know any of the people behind these sources, I may have been hearing biased information.

Whilst the details above are roughly what we have discussed here, it was good to hear a bit of confirmation from a REAL person.
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby shakespear1 » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 06:57:32

Yes, it is a different feeling when you discuss something with someone who is in the middle of an issues, versus reading about it in a text form. The reality is shaped by experience not words.

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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 07:00:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'O')f course I then asked if his brother.... it was good to hear a bit of confirmation from a REAL person.


A real 2nd hand source!
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby Liamj » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 07:08:31

In some ways gossip is more valuable than peer reviewed papers, it escapes norm-ing and forced conservative assumptions.

Yours I find interesting for the 2nd point. What if all our conservative assumpions (e.g oil co. data is as an average reliable, even if OPEC nation reserve figures are ridiculous) get proven wrong?

Some less telling gossip: I attended a post-grad spatial info recruitment event put on by Exxon-Mobil, specifically to ask their (not very senior) exploration rep about their discoveries versus USGS predictions, he stonewalled me, answered unasked questions and then tried ridicule. Could be the guy has natural flair as a PR flack, or is there (as it felt) now a concious strategy to divert attention from the problems? Plain self interest in avoiding windfall taxes would suffice as motivation.

But bring on the gossip, it deserves at least one thread devoted to it.
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby SoothSayer » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 07:08:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'O')f course I then asked if his brother.... it was good to hear a bit of confirmation from a REAL person.


A real 2nd hand source!


It's the best I've got I'm afraid ... it scores at least 90% on my validity scale.

Also, the main point for me is the POLARITY of the information. This confirms that we have a problem.
I would have been more concerned to hear that the brother was optimistic.

I agree that the info is 2nd hand ... but this "polarity" snippet is unlikely to have been lost in translation, although the other details may have been a bit garbled on repetition.
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby waegari » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 07:23:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '
')Yesterday I was chatting with a local guy - it turned out that his brother is a geologist with a major oil company.

Of course I then asked if his brother had ever mentioned the oil situation. This is what I was told:

* There is a lot less oil about than most people believe
* Two major companies have greatly over-estimated their reserves
* They don't really know where to look for new oil
* New oil is costing a lot more than expected to find & extract
* No more huge finds are expected


Though I can imagine the local guy's brother wouldn't much like it if you would disclose your source, but it would be interesting to know which major oil company this is. Especially as you are in the UK.

Last year a friend of mine told me about a friend of his (talk about 2nd hand sources), working at Amsterdam Shell HQ. This was about 12 months ago, and at that time this Shell employe expected oil to rise to $ 100 any time soon. Not because of any political disruptions or such like, but because of supply problems in the first place. PO must be a topic there.

Now Shell of course is already known to have overestimated its reserves. So they can hardly count amongst the two companies this brother is refering to. Which would make it three.

The other major UK based oil company, BP, is probably not turning towards renewables out of sheer goodness either. Wouldn't they and, say, Chevron be proper candidates?
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby SoothSayer » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 07:32:32

Sorry, my lips are sealed. I have spent too much of my life with lawyers, in courtrooms & in deposition rooms (as an independent witness) as it is ....

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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 07:57:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'a')lthough the other details may have been a bit garbled on repetition.


Were you in a pub? :)
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby Zardoz » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 09:37:14

I wouldn't categorize this as "gossip" at all. I'd call it "inside information" or "the truth".
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby SoothSayer » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 10:27:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'I') wouldn't categorize this as "gossip" at all. I'd call it "inside information" or "the truth".

I am trying to be very cautious by giving the data a "validity score".

Even if I am VERY cautious, the "polarity" of the reponse confirms to me that even oil company staff are concerened about the future.

In other words, all the ebullient confidence we hear from oil company CEOs needs to be treated with caution.

I don't want to fall into the trap of repeating or overinterpreting meaningless 54th hand drivel as "valid data" ... as sometimes seems to happen around here.

(Sudden thought: Perhaps that meeting was no accident ... what if Echelon staff have been monitoring my Web posts and then arranged for an accidental meeting to take place? Perhaps I have been tricked by a disinformation unit? I though that big black helicopter hovering nearby was a bit out of place))

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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby Kingcoal » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 10:50:43

Everyone I've talked to the in the oil business has concurred with our assessments here. We are in for a fun ride.
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby SoothSayer » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 10:53:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'E')veryone I've talked to the in the oil business has concurred with our assessments here. We are in for a fun ride.


Are they generally more or less optimistic than us lot?

What dates are they expecting?
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 11:11:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', ' ')We are in for a fun ride.
"Are we having fun yet?" No, wait 'till there's nothing in the grocery stores, then we'll have some fun.
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby NEOPO » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 12:53:51

Yep - its called "whiplash" when we are suddenly hit from behind but what do they call it when the ride suddenly stops?????

Time to get off ;-)

I predict seeds and fresh produce will sell extremely well - see ya at the market pilgrims!! ;-)
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Re: Gossip snippet

Unread postby Kingcoal » Sun 16 Jul 2006, 15:59:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'E')veryone I've talked to the in the oil business has concurred with our assessments here. We are in for a fun ride.


Are they generally more or less optimistic than us lot?

What dates are they expecting?


No one knows any dates, they only know that they keep looking for oil and they find small fields, difficult to extract fields and junk (heavy sour oil.) Tar sand and shale oil evoke laughter from those in the know. Our economy is built on plentiful light sweet crude and we are venturing into uncharted territory. In my opinion, the big western oil companies are planning for an imploding market. Drilling for oil is very risky (economically) these days.
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