[0mar]

If it's intermittant renewables, forget about it. That's just PC-crap that simply won't cut it with today's grid. The grid would collapse if more than 20-25% was intermittant renewables.

The only REAL alternative energy is nuclear power. Everything else is simply a stop-gap measure. And even then, it doesn't address Peak Oil, which is an entirely new beast. Make 10,000 nuclear power plants, it won't matter. The effects of Peak Oil will be felt just as hard. But at least the lights will be on.

Without 100-200 million electric cars on the road, all the clean electrical energy means dick when it comes to combating peak oil.

[0mar]

stupid double post -sorry

[oilfreeandhappy]

I heartily disagree with this post:

>If it's intermittant renewables, forget about it. That's just PC-crap that simply won't cut it with today's grid. The grid would collapse if more than 20-25% was intermittant renewables.

I will agree that renewables, as engineered today, are intermittent. However, we will need to get more creative with renewables. Water storage and pumping (uphill) is the most promising. This turns renewables into an "on demand" technology. The raw potential of wind and solar is way beyond the energy needs of the entire world. Reference this article:
http://www.endlessenergy.com/windenergy.shtml

I found the following of particular interest:
"A DOE study put the recoverable portion at about 120 quads-about 20% more than the total US energy consumption."

Wind is cost-competitive with all forms of energy today. It is quickly becoming more economical, which is why the System Manufacturers can't keep up with demand.

[clv101]

How fast can we build a new technology solution? It took 12 years for cell phones to dominate the market, rising from 11m compared to 519m land lines in 1990 to 1.2 billion compared to 1.1 billion land lines in 2002. The cell phone market grew 50% per year from 1990, wind energy has been growing at 30% per year since 1995.

If the US doubled wind capacity each year for 7 years wind would be the number one source of energy, this is possible. 2001 saw a 67% increase. Total cost of such a build would be around $640bn, $90bn a year (compared with the $200bn Americans spend on gasoline each year).

US wartime mobilisation suggests this is possible. Between 1942 and 1944 the US produced 229,600 aircraft. In 1942 the manufacture of cars (previously 3-4m a year) was banned along with driving for pleasure. In 1941 the US produced almost 4 million cars, in 1942 24,000 tanks and 17,000 panes were manufactured. In 1940 the US produced 4,000 aircraft, in 1942 48,000 were produced. 1942 also saw an outright ban on the sale of private cars and some rationing of tires, fuel, sugar etc

This speed to transition is stunning – we need to harness this kind of power to stop making SVUs and start making hybrids and renewable energy technology infrastructure.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'I')f it's intermittant renewables, forget about it. That's just PC-crap that simply won't cut it with today's grid. The grid would collapse if more than 20-25% was intermittant renewables...

[Dreamtwister]

Assuming a new car costs around $30,000, you could replace roughly 14.6 million cars with new, renewable-powered ones.

That's roughly 2% of the global fleet.

[galacticsurfer]

To expand on the idea of rationing and a wartime economy superproject to get renewables on line I would like to suggest a reverse OPEC or a purchasers cartel to force a price drop during this time when we are anyway rationing. If we forced rationing internationally-say EU, USA, Japan then we could say we would only import or use so much oil in total or per capita or per unit of GDP. Then there would be lots of spare capacity globally. The price would drop to USD 10/barrel. Supply/demand response would not occur as the free market would not control it anymore as rationing would not be lifted just because the price dropped. We could then use this cheap oil exclusively for manufacture of the renewable energy infrastructure and absolute necessities of life like tractors to make grain for bread or potatoes-sales of packaged junk food banned for example or meat rationing introduced(no private driving, thermostats way down, no plastic toys,etc. etc.).

Then as soon as we get our act in order in the industrial countries and have enough energy and technology to support a reasonable lifestyle so that chaos and mass starvation are not to be feared we can lift the rationing bit by bit until we have completely phased out all fossil fuels.

I mean the Swedes are seriously working out a national plan to replace all fossil fuels by 2020 right now.

It is obviously just a matter of the decision makers. the problem is actually that our so called democracies are based on bribing the people with more and more goods all the time, based on growth and based on oil and 4 year election cycles. Long term planning is hardly made. Central planning or state interference maybe the only way to go on this one although the market has been responding quite well with the growth in alternatives investment(GE, California, etc). The strength of democracy and capitalism is simultaneously its weakness. No planning, no longterm, growth as religion. We cannot let the market or the ballot box alone decide. We have to get active now at the grass roots as people, consumers, investors, citizens.

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'I')f it's intermittant renewables, forget about it. That's just PC-crap that simply won't cut it with today's grid. The grid would collapse if more than 20-25% was intermittant renewables...

[emersonbiggins]

I just ran across an article in a local daily about the high costs of road repair taking their toll on state highway, and especially county road departments. A bit anecdotal, yes, but I think there are indications that this is widespread.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates the producer price index for asphalt increased by 43 percent from April 2005 to April 2006. Crushed rock, sand and concrete prices also rose.

[foodnotlawns]

I was just talking about that with my family.

If the roads get full of pot-holes, we can ride bicycles more safely because pot holes are like "speed bumps."

The well maintained roads are deadly for non-motorized traffic.

[emersonbiggins]

Rural bridges are cause for concern too, I believe. And when they wash out or otherwise structurally fail (and they will), it might leave some residents marooned with no quick fix. We've been lucky thus far, but many bridges are far beyond their design life and very costly to repair, much less replace.

[parsifal]

Peak Oil is snapping threads everywhere. What to do...but punt.

[NeoPeasant]

Incredibly, the road lobby in my state is using the skyrocketing costs of road construction as a justification for road construction. "Let's get em built quick before it costs too much"
They never mention that the root cause of the high prices, namely high energy costs, is also the very thing that will render the extra traffic capacity unnecessary.

[waegari]

Meanwhile, over here in the Netherlands, government is still playing possum. They're blindly planning on new highways, as well as adding lanes to existing ones. While on the other hand no opposition party is even considering peak oil as an argument against those plans. If they come up with anything, it's the (also quite legitimate) environmental one, but that's as far as they will go. None of those parties want to acknowledge what is going on.

Maybe, just maybe, things will change for the better soon: tomorrow leading daily NRC Handelsblad will feature peak oil as the main theme of its monthly magazine...

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'I')ncredibly, the road lobby in my state is using the skyrocketing costs of road construction as a justification for road construction. "Let's get em built quick before it costs too much"
They never mention that the root cause of the high prices, namely high energy costs, is also the very thing that will render the extra traffic capacity unnecessary.

[bobaloo]

We just got this year's quotes for asphalt.

2004 - $22 per ton
2005 - $35 per ton
2006 - $80 per ton

We're not going to be doing much road work this year.

[lotrfan55345]

It's just not the US, Madrid is moving all it's major highways underground!

http://www.munimadrid.es/Principal/Enla ... s1/10.html

[DigitalCubano]

Add another anecdotal source from up here in Liberal Land.

The rising cost of asphalt is causing some serious headaches, especially after the several bouts of flooding this Spring.

[DigitalCubano]

Another factor in this mess is that refiners are switching over to producing more lucrative gasoline at the expense of asphalt.

[oilfreeandhappy]

I saw a film-clip recently about the rising costs of road repair. One thing that was mentioned is that higher MPG cars are causing drivers to spend less at the pump, and therefore there's less tax base to repair roads. Most US States, including my State of Colorado, have worked around this problem by using Sales Tax General Fund dollars for road repair.

In addition, Property Taxes and Homeowner's Association Dues are used to finance county and local roads in most areas.

Don't worry, they'll find money for your roads and auto infrastructure. To me, it seems like this is the only thing that Government does.