Nice scenario Marco. Just throw in a possibility of civil war or ww3 (or both at the same time) as variables.
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by TrueKaiser » Sun 07 Nov 2004, 17:21:09
correct me if i am worng but it sounds like you are saying it might return to the old city state kind of life?
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by gg3 » Sun 07 Nov 2004, 21:58:08
Jato, thanks:-).
Kaiser, somewhat:-)
Nation-states might survive as such, but in a stripped down form of the kind that might warm an extreme libertarian's heart:-). Personally I have a strong attachment to the idea of the *United* States of America, and a breakdown of our central government would make us a tasty target for any of a number of enemies.
It's not very well known, but apparently Oregon passed a legal secession amendment -making it an independent country- a short time before Pearl Harbor. And un-passed it the day after Pearl Harbor. I take that as a very interesting lesson.
That being said, localism will necessarily have to re-emerge as a factor of transport costs, and central authority will not have the financial means to maintain its presence as universally as it currently does. Now here we have to exercise caution in forecasting, because the mythos of the Western Frontier is still recent in our history. But the strong likelihood remains, of something like what I described, whether formally or informally. And also, keep in mind that there are remote rural areas in the US right now that are de-facto similar in certain important ways. We might do well to study those cases so we can learn from their strengths and as importantly, learn from their downsides.
Kaiser, somewhat:-)
Nation-states might survive as such, but in a stripped down form of the kind that might warm an extreme libertarian's heart:-). Personally I have a strong attachment to the idea of the *United* States of America, and a breakdown of our central government would make us a tasty target for any of a number of enemies.
It's not very well known, but apparently Oregon passed a legal secession amendment -making it an independent country- a short time before Pearl Harbor. And un-passed it the day after Pearl Harbor. I take that as a very interesting lesson.
That being said, localism will necessarily have to re-emerge as a factor of transport costs, and central authority will not have the financial means to maintain its presence as universally as it currently does. Now here we have to exercise caution in forecasting, because the mythos of the Western Frontier is still recent in our history. But the strong likelihood remains, of something like what I described, whether formally or informally. And also, keep in mind that there are remote rural areas in the US right now that are de-facto similar in certain important ways. We might do well to study those cases so we can learn from their strengths and as importantly, learn from their downsides.
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by TrueKaiser » Sun 07 Nov 2004, 22:39:24
i would kind of call my self liberal. some of my views match theres. but i do not look forward to the return of city states.. it is basicly the other extreme compared to what is happening now.
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by smallpoxgirl » Wed 10 Nov 2004, 23:01:31
I strongly disagree with your portrayals of pre-industrial life. The invasion of the Americas by Europeans contrasts these two ways of life sharply. Despite facing 400 years of continuous genocide, Indian peoples fought courageously against impossible odds to maintain their way of life. After centuries of war. After loosing 99% of their land and seeing 99% of their people killed. After being placed in concentration camps and starved to the edge of death. After being robbed of self governance and being forced away from their tradition of comunally holding land. After seeing every single binding treaty they signed with the Americans violated. After all that, the Indians still didn't choose the white way. It was only once the government starting kidnapping Indian children and forcing them into boarding schools. Cutting off their hair. Beating them for practicing their religion or speaking their own language. Only when those boarding school children grew up, did Indians covert from their "nasty, brutal" ways and see the value of civilization.
Read Columbus's accounts of how genorous the Indians were. How kind. What good slaves they would make. Then read the accounts of his soldiers tying Indians down and slowly roasting their hands or feet over a fire. Cutting out their tongues to quiet them. Keeping half an Indian carass hanging on the porch to cut off piece by piece to feed the dogs. Read about the Spanish navagating from island to island in the Caribean by following the trail of dead Indians in the water. Read the accounts from the beginning of the first Puritan Conquest when the Indian warriors asked incredulously of the "civilized" Puritans, "Do you kill women and children?" The answer "You shall soon see". Read how the English popularized scalping because they considered it so much more efficient than their previous practice of collecting whole heads as they had done during their invasions of Ireland. Read about the bounties on Indian scalps that persisted in some states into the 1900's. Read about Colonel John Chivington's 1863 killing of two hundred Cheyennes who had allied themselves with the US. Read about how his soldiers cut off the women's breasts and played catch with them. Read about how they cut off the women's genitals and used them as hat decorations. Read his rousing call to murder Indian children. "Kill and scalp all, big and little; nits make lice" Visit the Capitol in Denver today and you will see a statue on the front steps honoring John Chivington and his men. Read about the death march of the Cherokee on the Trail of Tears. Read about the death march of the Dine (Navaho) on The Long Walk to Bosque Redondo. Read about the 18 Congressional Medals of Honor awarded to the seventh cavalry for using Gatlin Guns to mow down 350 unarmed Lakota's at Wounded Knee. Thier crime? Practicing a religious ceremony forbiden by the government. Watch Madeline Albright on 60 Minutes deffending the adminstrations decision to starve to death 500,000 Iraqi children. Read about the 4 million Vietanmese murdered to prevent some dominos from falling. Read Zbigniew Brzezinsk words when asked whether he regreted working under Jimmy Carter to intentionally instigate the Russo-Afgan war, costing 2 million Afganis thier lives: "Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it?" Think about these things, and then ask yourself how loving and kind "civilized" people are and how nasty and brutish pre-industrial people are.
One of Hitler's rules of propaganda was to find the most indeffensible thing you are doing and to loudly and repeatedly accuse your enemy of doing it. Of course most "civilized" authorities accuse pre-industrial people of being brutal "savages". They accuse Indians of scalping and being decietful. Of course George Bush accuses Sadam of spreading terror and of having weapons of mass destruction. It makes for good propaganda. The best defense is a good offense.
As far as I can see violence never decreased under industrial societies. It became larger, more blatant, and more sanitary. More industrial if you will. People got better at lying to themselves about it. Burying thier heads in the sand. As far as I'm concerned civilization is a death trap, and it can't end soon enough.
Read Columbus's accounts of how genorous the Indians were. How kind. What good slaves they would make. Then read the accounts of his soldiers tying Indians down and slowly roasting their hands or feet over a fire. Cutting out their tongues to quiet them. Keeping half an Indian carass hanging on the porch to cut off piece by piece to feed the dogs. Read about the Spanish navagating from island to island in the Caribean by following the trail of dead Indians in the water. Read the accounts from the beginning of the first Puritan Conquest when the Indian warriors asked incredulously of the "civilized" Puritans, "Do you kill women and children?" The answer "You shall soon see". Read how the English popularized scalping because they considered it so much more efficient than their previous practice of collecting whole heads as they had done during their invasions of Ireland. Read about the bounties on Indian scalps that persisted in some states into the 1900's. Read about Colonel John Chivington's 1863 killing of two hundred Cheyennes who had allied themselves with the US. Read about how his soldiers cut off the women's breasts and played catch with them. Read about how they cut off the women's genitals and used them as hat decorations. Read his rousing call to murder Indian children. "Kill and scalp all, big and little; nits make lice" Visit the Capitol in Denver today and you will see a statue on the front steps honoring John Chivington and his men. Read about the death march of the Cherokee on the Trail of Tears. Read about the death march of the Dine (Navaho) on The Long Walk to Bosque Redondo. Read about the 18 Congressional Medals of Honor awarded to the seventh cavalry for using Gatlin Guns to mow down 350 unarmed Lakota's at Wounded Knee. Thier crime? Practicing a religious ceremony forbiden by the government. Watch Madeline Albright on 60 Minutes deffending the adminstrations decision to starve to death 500,000 Iraqi children. Read about the 4 million Vietanmese murdered to prevent some dominos from falling. Read Zbigniew Brzezinsk words when asked whether he regreted working under Jimmy Carter to intentionally instigate the Russo-Afgan war, costing 2 million Afganis thier lives: "Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it?" Think about these things, and then ask yourself how loving and kind "civilized" people are and how nasty and brutish pre-industrial people are.
One of Hitler's rules of propaganda was to find the most indeffensible thing you are doing and to loudly and repeatedly accuse your enemy of doing it. Of course most "civilized" authorities accuse pre-industrial people of being brutal "savages". They accuse Indians of scalping and being decietful. Of course George Bush accuses Sadam of spreading terror and of having weapons of mass destruction. It makes for good propaganda. The best defense is a good offense.
As far as I can see violence never decreased under industrial societies. It became larger, more blatant, and more sanitary. More industrial if you will. People got better at lying to themselves about it. Burying thier heads in the sand. As far as I'm concerned civilization is a death trap, and it can't end soon enough.
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by jato » Thu 11 Nov 2004, 03:20:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hink about these things, and then ask yourself how loving and kind "civilized" people are and how nasty and brutish pre-industrial people are.
All people are capable of great atrocities. We here in the USA are currently fat, dumb and happy (so to speak). Take away the cheap energy, collapse the economy and see how much (more) evil we will become. We are not going to go gently into the night. None of the "aggressive" governments/countries will.
I am not down on the USA. I love the USA. I am down on people. Or in other words people let me down. Never underestimate the brutality of man.
The one idea the smart people here at PO.com often miss it is the human factor. I am talking about the dark side of human nature that has been proven by history time and time again. We will be lucky if many humans will survive through the next 100 years (ie more reason for die off).
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by smallpoxgirl » Thu 11 Nov 2004, 12:50:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'I') am not down on the USA. I love the USA. I am down on people. Or in other words people let me down. Never underestimate the brutality of man.
That would seem to be the point where you and I disagree. I think people are essentially good. In general, people are kind to eachother, one on one. This is especially true when they are living in small groups and develop relationships with eachother. They help eachother out. They care for eachother. It takes institutional organization and corupt systems of thought before they develop true brutality towards eachother. People will do things in the name of governments and in the name of churches in the name of consumerism that they would never concieve of doing on their own. When people turn off their own inate morality and start to trust the president or the reich's furer or the pope or the advertisers to be their morality, bad things happen.
The other instance where people turn off their own morality and do bad things is under the effects of intoxicating substances: alcohol, drugs, television, etc. Perhaps you are right in that Americans are so conditioned from a lifetime under the effects of mind controlling substances and corupt systems of thought that their inate senses of morality have irreversibly atrophied. When the television goes off, and the beer trucks stop running, and the talking heads in DC are silenced, I personally think people will find their moral center and will learn to live cooperatively and care for eachother again.
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by Freud » Thu 11 Nov 2004, 15:03:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'I') strongly disagree with your portrayals of pre-industrial life. The invasion of the Americas by Europeans contrasts these two ways of life sharply. Despite facing 400 years of continuous genocide, Indian peoples fought courageously against impossible odds to maintain their way of life. After centuries of war. After loosing 99% of their land and seeing 99% of their people killed. After being placed in concentration camps and starved to the edge of death. After being robbed of self governance and being forced away from their tradition of comunally holding land. After seeing every single binding treaty they signed with the Americans violated. After all that, the Indians still didn't choose the white way. It was only once the government starting kidnapping Indian children and forcing them into boarding schools. Cutting off their hair. Beating them for practicing their religion or speaking their own language. Only when those boarding school children grew up, did Indians covert from their "nasty, brutal" ways and see the value of civilization.
Read Columbus's accounts of how genorous the Indians were. How kind. What good slaves they would make. Then read the accounts of his soldiers tying Indians down and slowly roasting their hands or feet over a fire. Cutting out their tongues to quiet them. Keeping half an Indian carass hanging on the porch to cut off piece by piece to feed the dogs. Read about the Spanish navagating from island to island in the Caribean by following the trail of dead Indians in the water. Read the accounts from the beginning of the first Puritan Conquest when the Indian warriors asked incredulously of the "civilized" Puritans, "Do you kill women and children?" The answer "You shall soon see". Read how the English popularized scalping because they considered it so much more efficient than their previous practice of collecting whole heads as they had done during their invasions of Ireland. Read about the bounties on Indian scalps that persisted in some states into the 1900's. Read about Colonel John Chivington's 1863 killing of two hundred Cheyennes who had allied themselves with the US. Read about how his soldiers cut off the women's breasts and played catch with them. Read about how they cut off the women's genitals and used them as hat decorations. Read his rousing call to murder Indian children. "Kill and scalp all, big and little; nits make lice" Visit the Capitol in Denver today and you will see a statue on the front steps honoring John Chivington and his men. Read about the death march of the Cherokee on the Trail of Tears. Read about the death march of the Dine (Navaho) on The Long Walk to Bosque Redondo. Read about the 18 Congressional Medals of Honor awarded to the seventh cavalry for using Gatlin Guns to mow down 350 unarmed Lakota's at Wounded Knee. Thier crime? Practicing a religious ceremony forbiden by the government. Watch Madeline Albright on 60 Minutes deffending the adminstrations decision to starve to death 500,000 Iraqi children. Read about the 4 million Vietanmese murdered to prevent some dominos from falling. Read Zbigniew Brzezinsk words when asked whether he regreted working under Jimmy Carter to intentionally instigate the Russo-Afgan war, costing 2 million Afganis thier lives: "Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it?" Think about these things, and then ask yourself how loving and kind "civilized" people are and how nasty and brutish pre-industrial people are.
One of Hitler's rules of propaganda was to find the most indeffensible thing you are doing and to loudly and repeatedly accuse your enemy of doing it. Of course most "civilized" authorities accuse pre-industrial people of being brutal "savages". They accuse Indians of scalping and being decietful. Of course George Bush accuses Sadam of spreading terror and of having weapons of mass destruction. It makes for good propaganda. The best defense is a good offense.
As far as I can see violence never decreased under industrial societies. It became larger, more blatant, and more sanitary. More industrial if you will. People got better at lying to themselves about it. Burying thier heads in the sand. As far as I'm concerned civilization is a death trap, and it can't end soon enough.
Read Columbus's accounts of how genorous the Indians were. How kind. What good slaves they would make. Then read the accounts of his soldiers tying Indians down and slowly roasting their hands or feet over a fire. Cutting out their tongues to quiet them. Keeping half an Indian carass hanging on the porch to cut off piece by piece to feed the dogs. Read about the Spanish navagating from island to island in the Caribean by following the trail of dead Indians in the water. Read the accounts from the beginning of the first Puritan Conquest when the Indian warriors asked incredulously of the "civilized" Puritans, "Do you kill women and children?" The answer "You shall soon see". Read how the English popularized scalping because they considered it so much more efficient than their previous practice of collecting whole heads as they had done during their invasions of Ireland. Read about the bounties on Indian scalps that persisted in some states into the 1900's. Read about Colonel John Chivington's 1863 killing of two hundred Cheyennes who had allied themselves with the US. Read about how his soldiers cut off the women's breasts and played catch with them. Read about how they cut off the women's genitals and used them as hat decorations. Read his rousing call to murder Indian children. "Kill and scalp all, big and little; nits make lice" Visit the Capitol in Denver today and you will see a statue on the front steps honoring John Chivington and his men. Read about the death march of the Cherokee on the Trail of Tears. Read about the death march of the Dine (Navaho) on The Long Walk to Bosque Redondo. Read about the 18 Congressional Medals of Honor awarded to the seventh cavalry for using Gatlin Guns to mow down 350 unarmed Lakota's at Wounded Knee. Thier crime? Practicing a religious ceremony forbiden by the government. Watch Madeline Albright on 60 Minutes deffending the adminstrations decision to starve to death 500,000 Iraqi children. Read about the 4 million Vietanmese murdered to prevent some dominos from falling. Read Zbigniew Brzezinsk words when asked whether he regreted working under Jimmy Carter to intentionally instigate the Russo-Afgan war, costing 2 million Afganis thier lives: "Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it?" Think about these things, and then ask yourself how loving and kind "civilized" people are and how nasty and brutish pre-industrial people are.
One of Hitler's rules of propaganda was to find the most indeffensible thing you are doing and to loudly and repeatedly accuse your enemy of doing it. Of course most "civilized" authorities accuse pre-industrial people of being brutal "savages". They accuse Indians of scalping and being decietful. Of course George Bush accuses Sadam of spreading terror and of having weapons of mass destruction. It makes for good propaganda. The best defense is a good offense.
As far as I can see violence never decreased under industrial societies. It became larger, more blatant, and more sanitary. More industrial if you will. People got better at lying to themselves about it. Burying thier heads in the sand. As far as I'm concerned civilization is a death trap, and it can't end soon enough.
You're idealizing native american indians as a whole, a fair bit in your post and using it to bolster your distaste for the industrial world.
It's a misnomer to say "The Indians were peaceful" like it is to say "The French are wine swilling valentinos", or the "Russians blood thirsty hairy communists", or whatever.
All cultures have been barbaric on themselves and one another through this industrial age, and long long before transatlantic migration ever took place.
It doesn't make it right... but that's our nature.
There are plenty of accounts of certain Indian tribes of the northeast raping/pillaging/ and murdering the tribes they were at war with or had better resources worth taking.
Oral traditions hand down accounts of pre-europian times Manatawny (Delaware) getting into a squirmish and piking the heads of the fallen on spears along a mildly shallow tributary of the Delaware river as revenge for an unprovoked killing spree. Yeah the peaceful Delaware.....
Maybe they didn't have a tactical nuke to lob on to each other's villages, but the SHTF numerous times all around the pre-industrialised Americas. South America could have been considered gruesome by even todays standards of war, pre-industrialised SA.
Certain aboriginal tribes of Australia did the same.. and when a noted historian of Australia published a research paper documenting cannabalism in a few isolated times and locations for pre-industrialised Oz you should have seen the uproar he inadvertantly created amongst a society trained from childhood to feel mass guilt for their society and the industrialisation it brought. His name became dirt for the longest time. I wonder if he can even get a grant or interview anymore. I doubt it.
As for the possibilities for the future.... I'm sure that cold fusion all of the sudden becomes possible and viable just as the need forces that hand out.... the nanotech people will be building solar cells the size of needle tips, houses will be heated by geothermal pumps as a standard in colder climates, the X-challenge folks will have finally brought us the first nuclear powered space entry shuttles and interplanetary exploration/colonisation/ and mining will be where people invest their time energy and resources.
not to say that the transition and fighting amongst nations to prolong the time of change won't be the end of many of us... but we'll cope.
ancient man discovered fire... modern man will find it's own.
I for one can't wait to get off this planet and away from all the freaks... I probably won't in this lifetime, but the possibilities exist for my grandchildren and theirs. There's too many of us on this earth. Thats when wars start.
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by dhickerson » Thu 11 Nov 2004, 15:39:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'W')hen the television goes off, and the beer trucks stop running, and the talking heads in DC are silenced, I personally think people will find their moral center and will learn to live cooperatively and care for eachother again.
I'm all for the TV going off and shutting up the idiots in DC, but the beer trucks? Come on! What else do us poor amerian fools have to live for? I think I'm going to have to figure out how to brew my own, that would at least be a skill that post PO americans might have some interest in paying for!
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