[ajwald]

Hi, this is my first post on this forum.

I'm 18 years old and I'm currently doing my undergrad major in Physics.

Here's how I learned of peak oil: I was reading about carbohydrates on wikipedia for chemistry, which somehow led me to the Agriculture page, which somehow led me to the Olduvai Theory, which is very linked to Peak Oil. I read through sites like lifeaftertheoilcrash.net and naturally went through some depression. It eventually subsided.

Since then I must have spent at least ~500 hours reading through every article and book about the issue I can find - from non-technical to highly-technical papers about energy sources, consumption, supply, etc... After all, I'm very young, and the rest of my life is at stake.

But, here's the scariest part ... I'm fairly convinced that < 0.001 % of people my own age or younger are aware of any energy resource issue.

And when I bring up the topic to select peers that I truly believe are geniuses, the typical response is "you know, there are lots of alternatives to fossil fuels .. like hydrogen cars!"

And then I get shocked + appalled, and give up on discussing the topic for another week or two.

This truly is scary. My girlfriend thinks I'm a nut because I "love reading about oil of all things", my mother says, "oh, there's millions of years of oil you silly thing", and my dad says, "you know, I got to laugh at the cold war, so oil can be your generation's entertaining problem."

OK, and then there are those who are studying physics with me. The people whom it will be up to to develop alternative sources of energy. "Hey, this oil URL thingie you gave me, how is this important? stop wasting my time dude !" ..How can the very people that society will rely upon as energy innovators be completely ignorant toward the facts? How can they not see the relevance? Physics is the study of the behaviour of energy. It is 100% relevant. And then there's the profs. They either don't know, or know and aren't willing to teach students about it. Or they are too smart and and self-centered to care about the rest of society. And I don't blame them...

Over time my feelings toward the issue have changed. Everyone is so oblivious! It's insane...people are so intent that when they flip a switch the light will always go on. So I don't care anymore. I say, bring on Peak Oil. It's going to happen anyways, right? If these people don't want to believe me, fine.... but I'm not going down with them. I refuse to let my own quality of life deteriorate in the coming years.

And so, I devote a fair portion of my day to planning ... for the worst. I understand that it could be a slow powerdown. Or maybe a new miracle way of collecting some form of energy will arise. But, for now, I have to assume that an extreme economic recession is ahead. For this reason, I've come up with a list of necessities in my life. And some modest luxuries - like coffee. I work on ensuring that I can sustainably have access to all these things. There will be no inputs on which I am dependent. Of course, I'm not nearly there. I need about $500K to buy various things, like soil and photovoltaics.

But that's a whole other story. The point is ... am I the only one in my generation that is like this?

Please comment... I'd like to hear anybody's opinion on age+awareness.

p.s. I drive a car and drive inefficiently - I sure as hell am not going to let people of 1/2/3/4 generations ahead of me have all the fun in idiotically moving 3 tons of steel from A to B. -- just to give you an idea of my feelings.

p.p.s. I apologize if this topic has already been posted/done.

[Doly]

There are a few people of your age in these forums. In fact, your situation is typical for someone your age and I have helped several realise that it isn't as bad as it seems.

First of all, don't expect to convince your family straight away. Convincing people is a gradual process. Finding somebody that your parents will respect that agrees with peak oil is an important step. I don't know the political preferences of your parents, but did you know that both Bill Clinton and Al Gore have said they believe peak oil is going to happen soon?

As for other people your age, get in touch with any green organizations in your area. You may get some surprises (many "greenies" are still unaware of peak oil, or think it isn't a big issue!) but chances are that you will also meet some young people like you.

Even if you don't manage to convince people around you soon (facts will convince them eventually), there is a lot you can do on your own, and it looks like you are already doing well.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Hello dude,

Im 21 years old, currently working with ASPO Netherlands and a student in energy transition (wide spectrum). I learned about the issue when I was about 18 and in the beginning was quite like you. Very pessimistic, didn't talk too much to be about it because I thought they would or did not understand.

Nowadays, I'm fairly convinced that many people are aware that our way of life needs to change someday. However, many also oppose this change, and it will have to come from people that are innovative and want to work on the future, like most people on peakoil.com.

I think that you have been reading many pessimistic reviews like I did. These are not counterbalanced with the possibilities that are out there. If you bring the issue in a pessimistic sense (which you seem to do), most people will not be willing to talk to you. This is because of psychology, it does hurt most people to think about it (it traumatises you, you start functioning less well). My best hunch is that it is some sort of evolutionary trigger.

So what I would suggest is to read some literature on the solutions that are out there. See if you can find this book at your University:

Springer, Sustainable development and innovation in the energy sector, ISBN 3-540-23103-X

It is a well written book from 13 authors which gives a good overview of the possibilities in the energy sector (such as 5% energy saving per year).

Also try to get your hands on some Amory Lovins, and go read the book Energy at the crossroads from Vaclav Smil (he isn't very good on peak oil but he has the best overview on the energy sector itself).

The point is that there are alternatives out there, but probably not in the huge quantities that we need. Present day civilization can transform itself. We need to activitate people in a positive sense, you can't activate them otherwise.

Besides, there is no validity in being so pessimistic, just like there is no validity in being so optimistic, so why should we behave so pessimistic? Because it makes us feel better? it doesn't. Because it makes us deal with the problem better? it doesn't. We need to be realistic, and that means saying that we don't know many things, but should be precautionary.

About your Profs, part of them probably know, but they have fallen asleep. They are too absorbed in their research and teachings that they don't see what is happening. So what they need, is someone like you to wake them up, in a subtle positive manner.

Ask questions in a neutral manner, one step at a time. Like,

"I've read this book about the energy transition (pick one with a large overview like Energy at the crossroads from Vaclav Smil), and it is written that the energy transition as it is know is probably going far too slow, in the sense that fossil fuels and especially oil might not be available in the quantities that we need, I also read something from The International Energy Agency, these guys that make a lot of reports about it, that soon the only increase in oil production in the world will come from the Middle East. This stuff worries me a little bit. What do you think about our dependence on oil?"

He/She will probably answer with something optimistic about alternatives, which is okay. You can then ask if they think society will change or not and in what sense due to the restrictions that these alternatives have (don't be a pessimist). Just say that change is inevitable, but we don't know in which direction (society has always changed in the past and will do so in the future).

Then you may get some other answer, go and close the conversation, such as ask if he/she knows some good books about it (write them down).

So the first conversation should do this:

- Be a short conversation
- Create a common but incomplete ground/understanding on energy

This gives you the ability to bring the topic up later, while putting in other things you have read (which can be more pessimistic, or refer to real life events you have read about --> oil prices going way high)


Some tips:

- if you are talking to someone (especially "authorities" --> don't mention peak oil at first hand.
- If it is someone who knows a lot about energy act as if you are a little bit ignorant about it and if she/he knows more
- If it is someone who doesn't know shit, act as if you know just as much, or just a little bit more, don't overwhelm people with info.
- Always try to reach a common ground
- Act curiously towards the other person,
- Act positively

[Comp_Lex]

I'm 20,but I was 19 when I became awake. So, does that count as < 20?

BTW, I'm doing Computer Science. (I hope there will be enough energy in the future to run some computers )

BTW2, I'm writing a program that generates Hubbert Curves. I will release a concept version (pre-alpha) really soon (first freeware, when docs are ready then I'll release it under GPL) The program will be expanded with other stuff, like NG, coal, food production, economy, population......etc. The power of my program is that you can interact with all the stuff. You can eventually make "choices" (like, when will we start with a crash course in biofuels and how will everything then turn out.....)

I don't care if there is software that already does this....

[Olle]

Hi ajwald!

I also have this strange energy interest and my wife think I'm a bit of a nut... Anyway I'm 37 years old. I guess the people you are trying to talk to just is not intrersted in the topic, but as you might know many gouvernments are strating to address it now which is good.

However, please do NOT belive everything this peak oil doomers try to fill your brain with. Read things from "all sides" and make up your own mind:

Just to give you somethings to chew on:
1. Europeans (like myself, I'm a Swede) buy gasoline at 6-7$/gallon and consume about half the amout of oil then you Americans do, but we do not suffer at all from that.
2. You can make oil out of Coal
3. Heat from natural gas can be changed into heat from electricity made with Coal or Nuclear
4. Biofuels can not mitigate the whole problem, but is usefull in some conutries and VERY useful in others (like Brasil and Sweden)
5. Improving fuel efficacy in vehicles is VERY easy.

I found this side rather well balanced on the topic of peak oil:
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/

[SoothSayer]

Hi,

I'm around 50 (gosh, the years zoomed by!)

At your age I got heavily involved with a technical problem similar to Peak Oil.

I became a full time activist and knew EVERYTHING about the topic.

I could have won the Olympics Most Boring person championship!

Having spent months/years of my life worrying about the problem ... it simply went away! The disaster never happened!

I now look back and think that whilst I hadn't really wasted my time, I certainly could have had a more balanced life!

Peak Oil may fall into that class ... you can get sucked into the topic ... but maybe in real life you can't actually make any difference at the end of the day.

So don't focus too much on Peak Oil.

Stay informed ... but make the most of the pub and social life too!

Enjoy your freedom whilst young ... once you have a job, and possibly a family and a mortgage, most of your spare time & budget simply disappear!

[ajwald]

Taskforce_Unity, et al:

Thank you for your reply !

Unfortunately, I have not only studied the alternatives (both renewable and unsustainable) already, but I have also studied the numbers. That is, the watts and joules. I think studying physics makes the issue seem more urgent to me than it would others, because I've reached my own conclusion that we truly are screwed.

Let's look at food as one example. It's purely an infrastructure issue. The amount of BTU's that go into producing our food - even discluding transportation - are ridiculous. For example, look at how fertilizer is made:

N2(g) + 3H2(g) <--> 2NH3(g) [aka fertilizer]

This is the Haber process. Most people don't realize how much energy is required to obtain natural hydrogen. It requires methane (aka natural gas), or enough energy to perform electrolysis. It can also be done with carbon monoxide and water, but there's no natural source of CO. Without fertilizer, a lot of us starve to death. Without natural gas, no fertilizer - because there is no infrastructure right now to produce hydrogen gas from electricity in the quantities we need. If we were to use electricity, we'd need to burn 3x more natural gas than if we were to produce the hydrogen from natural gas alone, due to heat loss and inefficiency in the electricy generation process. So then let's try to replace it with wind turbines. The heat required to produce the materials in a wind turbine itself is more than what the wind turbine will provide in its first x years (the number is variable, but its on the order of magnitude of years). So in a crash scenario, there's simply no time. And with prices on natural gas (the only resource that provides instant heat) skyrocketing in a panic, there is no affordability for a crash program at all.

There are no immediate substitutes for something as simple as food production. An analogy is building a house in 5 hours. So, when oil peaks, natural gas will also dwindle with it, and non-organic food will have a huge premium on it.

The only way we wouldn't starve is if we all grow our own organic food. But... again, none of my friends listen to me. So, they won't actually start building a mini greenhouse and growing gardens until they are starving.

My point is .. it's great that we have books like that available. But, a lot of the people that count (our generation) are not reading that book, and moreover should not be told that "it's not as bad as it seems", because it truly is! There are solutions, and then there are implementable solutions.

I think I have read a lot of pessimistic crap by people who probably have their own pet peeves and want to see society crash and burn. But I've stopped reading non-technical papers. I only go after the stuff that counts: the numbers, the joules. I don't listen to the preachers that say "we're doomed", I listen to the guy that says "look, a fuel cell requires material A to withstand the pressure of X, but material A requires Y moles of material B which requires Z moles of natural gas to extract, and so it can't be done." Punch some numbers yourself, and eventually you learn to not trust anyone. I know I only trust the facts - not the doomsayers.

So unfortunately I am not open to "don't worry, its not that bad." Nor am I open to "here are some energy solutions." I would just feel a little better if some more physics students like myself would smarten up and research some numbers themselves. This way, they'd know what's coming and feel more motivated to ease the upcoming pain with some innovation.

edit for the other poster: I'd like to add the use of coal to the example. Firstly, my own calculations put the US at having ~30 yearsworth of recoverable coal with growth in energy usage accounted for. That number "250 years" that keeps getting thrown around is total crap. A lot of that supply is an energy sink if you analyze the geology of it. And they keep saying "at present rates of use"...well, if we substitute natural gas and oil with coal....!@#$%^

and the avenue of nuclear --> electrolysis ... I'm all for that if fast breeder reactors get approved. Otherwise, Peak Uranium. I should go buy a peak uranium domain name.

The truth is, if you don't do your own research, you're either at the mercy of the optimists or the pessimists.

[jato]

Whatever you do, watch this video!

[Olle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ajwald', 'T')askforce_Unity, et al:

Thank you for your reply !

Unfortunately, I have not only studied the alternatives (both renewable and unsustainable) already, but I have also studied the numbers. That is, the watts and joules. I think studying physics makes the issue seem more urgent to me than it would others, because I've reached my own conclusion that we truly are screwed.

Let's look at food as one example. It's purely an infrastructure issue. The amount of BTU's that go into producing our food - even discluding transportation - are ridiculous. For example, look at how fertilizer is made:

N2(g) + 3H2(g) <--> 2NH3(g) [aka fertilizer]

This is the Haber process. Most people don't realize how much energy is required to obtain natural hydrogen. It requires methane (aka natural gas), or enough energy to perform electrolysis. It can also be done with carbon monoxide and water, but there's no natural source of CO. Without fertilizer, a lot of us starve to death. Without natural gas, no fertilizer - because there is no infrastructure right now to produce hydrogen gas from electricity in the quantities we need. If we were to use electricity, we'd need to burn 3x more natural gas than if we were to produce the hydrogen from natural gas alone, due to heat loss and inefficiency in the electricy generation process. So then let's try to replace it with wind turbines. The heat required to produce the materials in a wind turbine itself is more than what the wind turbine will provide in its first x years (the number is variable, but its on the order of magnitude of years). So in a crash scenario, there's simply no time. And with prices on natural gas (the only resource that provides instant heat) skyrocketing in a panic, there is no affordability for a crash program at all.

There are no immediate substitutes for something as simple as food production. An analogy is building a house in 5 hours. So, when oil peaks, natural gas will also dwindle with it, and non-organic food will have a huge premium on it.

The only way we wouldn't starve is if we all grow our own organic food. But... again, none of my friends listen to me. So, they won't actually start building a mini greenhouse and growing gardens until they are starving.

My point is .. it's great that we have books like that available. But, a lot of the people that count (our generation) are not reading that book, and moreover should not be told that "it's not as bad as it seems", because it truly is! There are solutions, and then there are implementable solutions.

I think I have read a lot of pessimistic crap by people who probably have their own pet peeves and want to see society crash and burn. But I've stopped reading non-technical papers. I only go after the stuff that counts: the numbers, the joules. I don't listen to the preachers that say "we're doomed", I listen to the guy that says "look, a fuel cell requires material A to withstand the pressure of X, but material A requires Y moles of material B which requires Z moles of natural gas to extract, and so it can't be done." Punch some numbers yourself, and eventually you learn to not trust anyone. I know I only trust the facts - not the doomsayers.

So unfortunately I am not open to "don't worry, its not that bad." Nor am I open to "here are some energy solutions." I would just feel a little better if some more physics students like myself would smarten up and research some numbers themselves. This way, they'd know what's coming and feel more motivated to ease the upcoming pain with some innovation.

edit for the other poster: I'd like to add the use of coal to the example. Firstly, my own calculations put the US at having ~30 yearsworth of recoverable coal with growth in energy usage accounted for. That number "250 years" that keeps getting thrown around is total crap. A lot of that supply is an energy sink if you analyze the geology of it. And they keep saying "at present rates of use"...well, if we substitute natural gas and oil with coal....!@#$%^

and the avenue of nuclear --> electrolysis ... I'm all for that if fast breeder reactors get approved. Otherwise, Peak Uranium. I should go buy a peak uranium domain name.

The truth is, if you don't do your own research, you're either at the mercy of the optimists or the pessimists.

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ajwald', '
')Let's look at food as one example. It's purely an infrastructure issue. The amount of BTU's that go into producing our food - even discluding transportation - are ridiculous. For example, look at how fertilizer is made:

N2(g) + 3H2(g) <--> 2NH3(g) [aka fertilizer]

This is the Haber process. Most people don't realize how much energy is required to obtain natural hydrogen. It requires methane (aka natural gas), or enough energy to perform electrolysis. It can also be done with carbon monoxide and water, but there's no natural source of CO. Without fertilizer, a lot of us starve to death.

[mekrob]

ajwald,

Hi, I'm 19 and have known about the oil situation for about a year. Right around this time last year, I picked up "Twilight in the Desert", read it (although I initially skipped all of the highly tech stuff) and then subsequently found LATOC and a few weeks later, PO.com and ASPO.

Technically, I'm a physcis major as well, although I will most likely switch to geophysics so that I can study reservoir engineering in grad school to become a petroleum engineer so I will have a steady job in the future (a pretty damn good paying one too). I currently go to UNC (yeah, not very good for engineering). What's your U?

Anyway, I was intially very doomerish, mainly because I got everything from LATOC which is a pretty bad site. Then the corns started to get to me and voila, I was a optimist (or at least as close as I could ever come). Lately with much more knowledge and reading and learning the truth about alternatives, I realized just how fucked we are, especially when you factor in geopolitics (Iran, Russia, China, SA, etc). I'm a very hard doomer and actually hope for a very high depletion rate and a mass turning against the US. I figure this is the best way to avoid nuclear destruction.

It's good to have a tech like you aboard.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')atural gas isn't running out on a global basis until 2030 (peak in 2030). Afterwards there is still a lot of natural gas around. It will get more expensive though, but that stimulates innovation, efficiency and so on.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ajwald', '.')..I have also studied the numbers. That is, the watts and joules. I think studying physics makes the issue seem more urgent to me than it would others, because I've reached my own conclusion that we truly are screwed...

[Fergus]

Not to be picky here, but the title is wrong. You asked in the title is anyone older then (greater) 20. remember the alligator always eats the bigger number. < is greater then - > is less then.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

And then I get shocked + appalled, and give up on discussing the topic for another week or two.

Welcome to the club, peoples' denile of the facts is one of the most difficult issues of the whole problem. How can you find a solution if people won't even recognize the scale of the problem. Four centuries of solar energy in one year.. can't continue, no way.

You are certainly very observant for 18, keep up the research and don't get too down. It will be a big challenge.

[Fergus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ajwald', '.')..I have also studied the numbers. That is, the watts and joules. I think studying physics makes the issue seem more urgent to me than it would others, because I've reached my own conclusion that we truly are screwed...

[NEOPO]

I like the kid.
I am 35 in this existence yet I am forever young in my mind:-)

Come o'er here dear boy have a cigar yer gonna go far....
yer gonna fly high
yer never gonna die
yer gonna make it if you try
their gonna love you........
pink floyd - have a cigar

You know what is up or down.
Nothing is going to save this overgrown pitri dish from mass starvation and die off.

Einstein died full of regret.

Chances are that whatever the next generation comes up with will be used by TPTB against the masses to control and subdue.

Good luck.

[hippiegunlover]

Welcome ajwald

I'm just curious why you think you need to talk to other people your age about PO. Not that you shouldn't try, but if they aren't listening then give us <ahem> slightly older folks a chance. Save the young friends for fun, soon they will remember your nutty oil ideas and bring it up themselves.

Do any of you "older than 20" crowd feel really protective of the young people finding out and understanding PO? I don't know if I feel guilty about ruining their lives, or if it's a "mom thing" that I want to protect them.

[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
As for other people your age, get in touch with any green organizations in your area. You may get some surprises (many "greenies" are still unaware of peak oil, or think it isn't a big issue!) but chances are that you will also meet some young people like you.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '.').."greenie" is just another name for Communists/Socialist slavery.

[Comp_Lex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '.').. but maybe in real life you can't actually make any difference at the end of the day.