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what if the downfall of modern society doesn't happen?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.
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Re: what if the downfall of modern society doesn't happen?

Unread postby Hermes » Tue 11 Jul 2006, 09:50:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', 'N')o destruction of habitat or hunting to extinction.


Several primitive cultures have been known to do that. In fact, it looks like every culture that learned how not to do that, learned it the hard way.


Hey Doly:

Can you give me examples of this?

Also to be clear: I admit I am challenging you to come up with examples of this...! But I'm also very interested to see if you do, in fact, come up with examples of a 'primitive' culture either destroying their habitat or hunting any animal to extinction. It would help me learn more about things.

And by a primitive culture I'm talking about a hunter/gatherer culture... we're both talking about the same thing, right? (because if you bring up an ancient but FARMING community then I'm going to tell you that's not the kind of culture I'm talking about)
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Re: what if the downfall of modern society doesn't happen?

Unread postby Fergus » Tue 11 Jul 2006, 10:36:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', 'N')o destruction of habitat or hunting to extinction.


Several primitive cultures have been known to do that. In fact, it looks like every culture that learned how not to do that, learned it the hard way.


Hey Doly:

Can you give me examples of this?

Also to be clear: I admit I am challenging you to come up with examples of this...! But I'm also very interested to see if you do, in fact, come up with examples of a 'primitive' culture either destroying their habitat or hunting any animal to extinction. It would help me learn more about things.

And by a primitive culture I'm talking about a hunter/gatherer culture... we're both talking about the same thing, right? (because if you bring up an ancient but FARMING community then I'm going to tell you that's not the kind of culture I'm talking about)


Well the American Indians before the white man came here was a perfect example of living within nature. they would not over hunt the buffalo cause they knew that was there bread and butter. White man exterminated the buffalo population as a means to curve the indians enthusiasm. They were Hunter/gatherers. Though to be true, real h/g stopped in the late BC's, rarely will you find a group of H/Gers past the year 0. Trace maybe, and we dont know what really happened to the thracians. We assume they were assimilated by the local regional pples.

I mentioned in another thread, the Emperor after Hadrian fixed the Roman borders as they were in the 1st century and proclaimed Rome could not grow and continue to support herself. Even the ancient romans knew there was a limit to what a civilization could become.

I feel this is totally a different picture then anything Rome or the aztecs or American Indians faced. We are looking at a total collapse of society by our own hands. Never before was a civilization killed by its own hands other then the unknown pples of Mexico that just vanished leaving standing cities deserted between 1000-1400AD. (and we dont know if they just walked off or were killed by disease or a maurading tribe).

This situation we face here is us killing ourselves. We have treated the earth as a full service buffet, pigging out, making a mess and leaving it for someone else to clean up. We almost deserve what we get based on our actions. When I first learned of the mess called PO, I was incensed that this is all I have to offer my children and their children. Surely we could have been better stewards of this earth. But we blew it big time. This is like nothing else any man or civilization has ever experienced. We exposed the flaw in human nature. Greed, Avarice, Jealousy, Intollerance and bigotry. Free will indeed was the cruelest gift God ever gave us.
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Re: what if the downfall of modern society doesn't happen?

Unread postby thuja » Tue 11 Jul 2006, 11:58:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mjpete', 'P')eople look at the amount of waste in our society and see this as all bad. However, what it may end of being is our cushion as peak oil occurs. People cling to the fact that demand for oil is inelsatic, when in fact it is not. Partly because we have exceess in our use, we will be able to mitigate, in the short term, the effects of peak oil. If society was using oil efficiencently and then you have a peak, this would be a more serious crisis. The best case for getting action is to have a short term spike in oil/energy prices, which forces people to really evaluate their use. The spike would also have to be long enough to change peoples planning. I think a 1 - 2 year spike in oil up to maybe $200/bl would do it.


Elastic for whom? Third World denizens who can't afford the price of 8 $ a gallon gas or the skyrocketing cost of food because much of the crops are being converted to ethanol? First World poor people who rely on social programs that are likely to be slashed when the economy goes into a tailspin? Elastic for the poor who can't afford to heat their homes? Elastic for the middle class family that lives in the suburbs and can't afford to sell their drastcially devalued home and move to the city?

Yes- oil consumption is elastic for the wealthy and for the upper midlle class who can hold onto their job. Otherwise, elasticity is another word for fear, deprivation, hunger and sickness.
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Re: what if the downfall of modern society doesn't happen?

Unread postby SeasonOfPain » Wed 12 Jul 2006, 22:53:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fergus', 'I') feel this is totally a different picture then anything Rome or the aztecs or American Indians faced. We are looking at a total collapse of society by our own hands. Never before was a civilization killed by its own hands other then the unknown pples of Mexico that just vanished leaving standing cities deserted between 1000-1400AD. (and we dont know if they just walked off or were killed by disease or a maurading tribe).

I posit that the culture of the original Native Americans (not sure which exactly you are referring to here, as there were many tribes with different beliefs and practices) are the exception to the rule. And, perhaps more importantly, most such cultures were wiped out by a "stronger" culture that was (a) more numerous and more aggressive. This was well before oil was discovered, much less the development of our current culture. The traits you listed, greed, avarice, etc., have been dominant since the caveman smashed in a rival tribe member's skull in order to take over their puddle of water.

It has always been this way; the stronger, more assertive cultures overpower and weed out the less aggressive, peaceful, harmonious ones. This is self-evident; if it were otherwise, we would not be in the predicament we're in now.

A collapse of a civilization due to its own unchecked consumption is nothing unique to our species, let alone our culture. I'm curious: what do you make of Jared Diamond's Collapse? It covers some of the civilizations you mentioned above, and suggests that their collapses were, in fact, self-inflicted due to the exhaustion of their resources.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fergus', 'T')his situation we face here is us killing ourselves. We have treated the earth as a full service buffet, pigging out, making a mess and leaving it for someone else to clean up. We almost deserve what we get based on our actions. When I first learned of the mess called PO, I was incensed that this is all I have to offer my children and their children. Surely we could have been better stewards of this earth. But we blew it big time.

That I can agree with. Regardless of what happened in past civilizations, this one has done its damage. The current global civilization has doomed itself.

I just don't think that the next civilization, if there is one, will be any different in its desires or methodologies. Only the raw materials they have available will be different (i.e. gone).
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Re: what if the downfall of modern society doesn't happen?

Unread postby Doly » Thu 13 Jul 2006, 05:06:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeasonOfPain', '
')It has always been this way; the stronger, more assertive cultures overpower and weed out the less aggressive, peaceful, harmonious ones. This is self-evident; if it were otherwise, we would not be in the predicament we're in now.


Overpower, yes. Weed out? Not always. There are examples where the more agressive culture invaded a more peaceful but also more advanced culture in some respects, and the second converted the first to their ways after being invaded. The Romans invaded the Greeks, but the result was that the Romans adopted a lot of the Greek culture. The Mongols invaded China, and then adopted Chinese culture.

It's perfectly possible that when we get ourselves out of this mess, we will develop a civilization that doesn't harm the environment beyond its ability to repair itself. In fact, I would say it's the most likely outcome.
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