[weirdo27]

arg i made this topic to make me feel better but after i think about it i only feel worse. Especially after thinking i read this fact somewhere im not sure how accurate it is but for every calorie of food you eat it consumes 10 calories of oil. then just seeing building and all our stuff i just picture it as a oil building oil bags oil food items oil shelves oil everything. Oil clothing. Everything is made of oil and that is what makes out entire economy is oil. Were doomed. I almost want to cry to even think about the future cause i know this lifestyle is going to start to go downhill pretty soon.

[crapattack]

weirdo27, when you first start grasping the full impacts of PO it can be pretty damn devestating. Most of us here have gone through some form of depression thinking about the ramifications of all this and it makes it worse that no one really knows the timing. What I can tell you is making some plans and putting in place some preparations seems to help me feel a bit better, but nothing really takes away the fact that between PO, Climate Change and population growth we are facing a "Perfect Storm" scenario. I say assume that we have a couple years and try to build the best damn storm shelter you can think of.

[rsch20]

if the downfall doesn't happen, then 'omega point' is my bet.

I'm very aware of PO and all the other threats looming over us, my guess is the odds for a bad outcome vs a good one are something like 10 to 1. this thread is asking about the hypothetical 'what if' though and i'm going to address just that.

exponential growth applies to more than just resources and population, it's happening in technology as well. if society doesn't collapse, then 'curve' of technology will go vertical somewhere around 2040.

a common argument against this, is that the pace of advancements becomes far too fast for humans to keep pace with. and this is true.

however, AI or enhanced-human intelligence (uploads, brain-computer interfaces etc), will be able to keep pace, so it is still entirely possible.

consider the fact that just being connected to the internet increases your IQ, you have greater access to information.

if society doesn't crash, then shortly we will likely create non-biological intelligence, that can improve it's own design. if such a thing happens we will quickly become obsolete (as we currently exist).

it will be nothing like star trek.

you may now commence the scoffing

[IslandCrow]

I seem to have missed this thread when it was active

Well, like Pops I seem to be affected by the good weather - sun shining and the fields (but not mine) bright green. If the downfall did not happen I would enjoy the changes to my life style that I have made already...moving out of town to a small village, a garden that I can suppliment my diet with, as well as flowers to enjoy, walks to the lake or in the woods. Soon after moving my income was cut by 40% .... while this has slowed the preparations that I would like to make for PO, I have realised that the change of life style is worth far more to me than the loss of income (although I know the lost of more income will be much harder to manage). So if the downfall does not happen then I will have gained so much by the change of lifestyle [One small bonus, was when I was cycling to bring my bike out here a Sea Eagle broke cover only about 20 metres / yards from where I was,and I could watch it lazily flap to the top of the tree, watch it sit in the top of the tree for all the world like a prize nature photo, then glide to the next tree, before flying off - although I have worked in finance all my life there is no way I could put a cash value of what that meant to me].

Where I am is suitable (IMO) for the slide down, it would NOT be suitable for an oil-free lifestyle - for that I would need more land (fields and timber), and a much smaller house (say a two roomed cottage that would be wood heated). I dream (and in a way am betting) that the economy might hold a bit longer so I can make this further move, but finances forces it to be just a dream for now (and also I guess it would be more of a nightmare for my spouse)

[Omnitir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')what if the downfall of society never happens for like a 125 years or a 100 years or 70 years.

[rsch20]

you make good points omnitir, though as it has also been pointed out there are differences between our situation and any of the previous ones in history. our use of hydrocarbons itself is a unique occurrence. things are happening on a much larger scale now than at any time before, things like positive feedback effects in global warming make me tend to think that we have less than a hundred years this time around, decades at best is my opinion.

which means it should be a close race, I'm starting to think its going to be extremely close, as in we go pretty far down the slide and encounter a lot of hardship before the singularity comes. (if it comes at all, which I recognize the possibility that it won't, it's something to hope for though).

the next 20-40 years will tell the tale one way or the other, soon we will either be gone (hard crash/nukes/global warming etc), reverted to pre-industrial levels (soft crash), or radically different than we are now (singularity/omega point).

I stand corrected on the star trek issue, yes since we cannot predict what things will be like after omega point there is a miniscule chance that things could become exactly like star trek after the singularity. but i think it's a pretty small chance though =p (with the exception of creating a star trek based virtual reality, that's feasible and probably even likely with the number of fans that would get a kick out of it, myself included, that doesn't count as what the singularity would be though, just a fraction of it)

[Chaparral]

I'm hoping it doesn't happen for many many years if at all. Heck, even 100 more years before TSHTF and I could get that Lamborghini Diablo, babysit my real estate and live to a ripe old age before the world catches fire and burns. My hedge against the downfall NOT happening is that I am keeping a couple of income properties in the event that fusion-powered nano-hamsters keep the status quo while enriching topsoil at the same time.

[mjpete]

People look at the amount of waste in our society and see this as all bad. However, what it may end of being is our cushion as peak oil occurs. People cling to the fact that demand for oil is inelsatic, when in fact it is not. Partly because we have exceess in our use, we will be able to mitigate, in the short term, the effects of peak oil. If society was using oil efficiencently and then you have a peak, this would be a more serious crisis. The best case for getting action is to have a short term spike in oil/energy prices, which forces people to really evaluate their use. The spike would also have to be long enough to change peoples planning. I think a 1 - 2 year spike in oil up to maybe $200/bl would do it.

[newhunter-gatherer]

"People look at the amount of waste in our society and see this as all bad. However, what it may end of being is our cushion as peak oil occurs. People cling to the fact that demand for oil is inelsatic, when in fact it is not. Partly because we have exceess in our use, we will be able to mitigate, in the short term, the effects of peak oil. If society was using oil efficiencently and then you have a peak, this would be a more serious crisis. The best case for getting action is to have a short term spike in oil/energy prices, which forces people to really evaluate their use. The spike would also have to be long enough to change peoples planning. I think a 1 - 2 year spike in oil up to maybe $200/bl would do it."


Demand for oil is not inelastic, and I am not seeing any evidence of demand destruction at $75+ pb, it is a critical resource needed to sustain our civilisation, economies and life as we know it, just like water or oxygen or soil is. If any significant shortfalls of supply occur of just one of the above, it will pose a serious risk to the health and safety of millions of people. And you are saying this is not a serious crisis?

[Hermes]

There is a type of person who will look at the rising oil price and look around and see a functioning society around them... and will conclude that the rising price of oil will not destroy our society.

I think that's mainly because no one here has really seen a human civilization die before. (and I'm not talking history books: I mean witnessed it firsthand).

It's like being in a little rubber raft for the first time when we're 4 years old, watching water slowly seep into it. Eventually the raft sinks. We didn't know that it'd sink until we SAW it sink. Or until we experienced it sink.

All around us are clear indicators that our society is currently sinking. Most people will understand this only in hindsight.

[antspice]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', ' ')This is a completely inhumane option so I chose the preservation of the one country that has stood as a beacon of freedom for the last 200 years and thats us.

[elocs]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('weirdo27', 'I')m just saying what if the downfall of society never happens for like a 125 years or a 100 years or 70 years. Maybe a few big recessions but nothing killer. I know oil peaking is a fact but what if after that we switch to coal gasification and exhaust every bit of resources we have on this planet even more to keep our society going the way it is now?

[Hermes]

I am one of the people who would be bummed out.

Not just because something I believed in turned out to be false (though I admit I'd feel pretty stupid, probably, for having tried to save my friends and family from something that didn't materialize), but rather I'd be bummed out because this destructive society was kept alive.

My process of learning about PO has been a smaller part of learning about the bigger picture that's currently going on. That bigger picture is: we're killing ourselves and everything around us. The only thing that will apparently stop us from doing this is halting and hopefully destroying this civilization.

Now that said the chances of modern society NOT falling apart seem to be nil. I will therefore not have to be bummed out about that, but rather will be bummed out by the other unfortunate effects of our civilization falling apart: widespread death and misery.

Frying pan... fire. But at least one of the two offers life for some humans and a halt to our destruction of this planet's other species.

[SeasonOfPain]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', 'F')rying pan... fire. But at least one of the two offers life for some humans and a halt to our destruction of this planet's other species.

[Hermes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')But what do you think the ultimate "good" of mankind's continued survival will be?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', 'N')o destruction of habitat or hunting to extinction.

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')I believe that humans have an ESSENTIAL role in life on earth. We are very necessary to keeping things running... when we are living our true nature.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', 'I') believe that humans have an ESSENTIAL role in life on earth. We are very necessary to keeping things running... when we are living our true nature.

[elocs]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', 'I') believe that humans have an ESSENTIAL role in life on earth. We are very necessary to keeping things running... when we are living our true nature.

[Hermes]

I also used to view the human race as a plague and inessential to life on earth... until I became educated on the matter.

Humans, when NOT part of our current culture, tend to bring forth biological diversity and abundance rather than the destruction I've mentioned above. I'm talking about cultures that existed before the agricultural revolution, when things started going sour.

I urge each of you to also attempt to extricate our species from our culture when considering questions like these. I know it's hard! When we talk about how horrible people are for the earth... we're really talking about how horrible people are IN THIS CURRENT SOCIETY for the earth.

Making that distinction is key, I think, in understanding some of the solutions presented to us now that we're post-peak. As long as we view the human race as a problem we won't be able to formulate a coherent solution to this mess.

If, however we begin to see our civilization as the problem, and humans as a key PART OF THE SOLUTION then things get very exciting.

Again I know people are going to respond saying that they just don't see how people can be part of any solution with the destruction they've wrought. I urge you all again to start, if you haven't already, unsaddling yourself with this culture in your mind.

Imagine a world where subjugation of our surrounding nature isn't right. Imagine a world where our 'purpose' isn't to be above all other species but to live along side them. Imagine a world where humans have chosen to live with the ebb and flow of the natural current of things, deeply connected to the natural world with its dangers and beauties.

If you're looking for examples of what I'm talking about: I am not talking any civilization that has begun within the last 10,000 years.