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PeakOil is You

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Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby pea-jay » Sat 24 Jun 2006, 02:41:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', 'A')mericans have been voting with their dollars.....and they have voted themselves 80 million SUVs and a yearly production of 1,500,000 McMansions.


Let's not be disingenuous here. The people have voted their government's will of cheap houses and free roads for all, and they received every economic advantage to do so. Yes, people ultimately bought into it and may even describe it as their "preference", but the free market it ain't. If we can safely say that the government has had a hand in creating the problem, simply removing that heavy hand would only have a positive effect in remediating the situation. Get the government out of the highway and secondary mortgage business and then you'll see people making more rational decisions about where and how to live.



IF WE LEFT IT TO THE "FREE MARKET"

Yes, if we "left it to the market" things would be a lot different.

NO INTERSTATE PROGRAM
We would have but a few superhighways connecting some but not all of the major urban areas to each other. Some would be privately built and operated and others built by wealthier states or regions. None of the "freeways" would be free. Nor would these toll roads will serve commuters well as interchanges on toll roads are expensive to maintain (compare I-80 to the Penn Turnpike) so commuters would be left to driving the arterials or stuck with a still viable public transport system. As a consequence, passenger rail traffic would likely remained strong, esp intra-city, though airline travel still would have ended up poaching some travelers off of the longer distance rail runs. Freight traffic would likewise have remained up, with no real interstate options. And you could be assured that few of these non-federal government tollways and none of the private turnpikes would have cut through the central portion of any city due to the sheer expense of land condemnation. Tollways, where constructed would skirt the urban areas or terminate at their edges.

NO FEDERAL HOME LOAN PROGRAMS
With no loan programs, cities would have remained cities. With no guarentees, only the wealthy would have qualified and the rest would probably continued to rent. After the war, the baby boom probably would have been muted, though increased birth rates from the depression era would have forced some population growth as would limited immigration. With limited road systems and a still present transit system, any urban incremental growth would likely have been dense and walkable in nature.

So then what...what would have been the intervening 60 years been like for the US in general. We probably would be a poorer, smaller nation, living in closer quarters, more dependent on public transit. More than likely, more of us would be engaged in manufacturing activities and our overall level of education would be lower, owing to a lack of collegiate funding opportunities for the masses.

Due to the relatively high numbers of lower skill, lower paid workforce, fewer immigrants would have arrived at our shores. Those who did immigrate probably would have originated from the rubble strewn remains of Western Europe (especially if the MacArthur program never existed) as always had been historically the case, with only a limited numbers of Mexican migrants moving back and forth in the Southwest. Few if any others would have moved here due to a lack of opportunities and few immigrant connections between the US and originating states.

Technologically we would have likely progressed as a country, though innovations would be far more limited with fewer educated folks and smaller amounts of service and technological firms in existance. The US government, no doubt fearing the Soviets would still have dumped some funds into science and technology, the results of which, probably would have trickled down to everyday use regardless. Without a massive program, it would have been slow and tedious.

Finally, we would be a nation of great contrasts. Parts of the US would advance with wealth and progress while other regions would have remained mired in deep poverty. The south and the desert west would have remained relative backwaters (the West especially, due to a lack of Federal water projects being constructed) while the Northeast and Midwest the veritable powerhouse running the country. Undoubtly some parts of the old dixie would still be lynching blacks.

With that in mind, we would probably be facing peak oil maybe 75 years from now. Though few would be planning for that.

In this case, the market could have done better. Or at least less damage.
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Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Sat 24 Jun 2006, 15:54:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'I')n this case, the market could have done better. Or at least less damage.


Good synopsis, pea-jay. I read on another thread that you are a planner by profession - that's great! I'm an architecture undergrad and heading into a M.Arch/Urban Design program this fall at UT, so hopefully you and I will have a hand at reversing this country's current course...

Here's hoping. :)
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby TheTurtle » Sat 24 Jun 2006, 16:08:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', 'T')his thread = typical doomer horsesh*t. :roll:


Thanks for your meaningful contribution.
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
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Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 24 Jun 2006, 22:00:56

.

DigitalCubano said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his thread = typical doomer horsesh*t.


Which of the following don’t you agree with:

1. Our present civilization is totally based on oil.
2. 55 of 65 of the world’s largest oil fields are presently in decline.
3. We use 10 calories from petroleum to produce one calorie of food
4. The world’s present population of 6.5 billion is not sustainable
without the benefit of oil
5. The logistic curve introduced by Marion Hubert in 1956 has
accurately projected the production and decline of at least five
major world oil fields.
6. Hubbert’s logistic curve is now projecting, for the near furture, a decline
in world oil production.
7. World grain production has fallen for 5 of the last 6 years and inventories
are presently at a 57 day level, down from 13 months five years ago and
the lowest in history.
8. Surplus oil production as a percentage of total production is now
the lowest in the history of the oil industry.
9. If you jump in front of a high speed bus you are going to have a very bad day.

WELCOME TO REALITY!

.
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Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 09:50:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'I')'m an architecture undergrad and heading into a M.Arch/Urban Design program this fall at UT


Very cool! I was at UT Thursday and Friday. A guy told me the School of Architecture only accepts 85 students per year. Very competitive when you considier UT Austin has a student population of 49,000.

Two-bedroom wooden shacks within 5 miles of campus are selling for $300,000. The old hippie-wannabe elites who run Austin are refusing to let developers build high-rise downtown housing because it would ruin the "asthetics" of the area.
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Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 10:17:18

We should learn to live with less instead more, no doubt about that. Consuming ourselves to death, like superbrain Spinoza and the like....ate himself to death......very stupid.

If we had 40 years....maybe we could arrange resources, set a limit to wealth, only a car when you need to transport heavy stuff, walk or cycle to work, public transport like trains to get to other cities, take the boat intercontinental like we used to do....
No washing machines, vacuum cleaners, just the needed.

We are way to late to stop this Titanic from hitting the ice, I used to think it might strand or that there would be plenty other ships around next morning....

I think no such luck for us, we'll have to do effort ourselves, erase your self pity or die, very simple.
Nature will teach us.

Now my best guess is that economy will flip with few years to go, then increasing trouble, some nuking, conventional wars and the civil world war be a fact. No city will be uneffected, no coastal area will be clear from waves when the storm hits full force.

Cities are lost, including the culture and land around it.
Leaves only few places on earth where we stand a chance.
From 7 Billion to hundreds of millions of humans in a decade of doom, hell on earth before we see the light again and are forced to change our lifestyle and ourselves.
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Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 17:22:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'I')'m an architecture undergrad and heading into a M.Arch/Urban Design program this fall at UT


Very cool! I was at UT Thursday and Friday. A guy told me the School of Architecture only accepts 85 students per year. Very competitive when you considier UT Austin has a student population of 49,000.

Two-bedroom wooden shacks within 5 miles of campus are selling for $300,000. The old hippie-wannabe elites who run Austin are refusing to let developers build high-rise downtown housing because it would ruin the "asthetics" of the area.


First things first - thanks! I was told that there are only 5 in my urban design program, and from your comment, it looks as if the rest of grad school is kept quite small as well. Good thing (I think...)

About the housing market in ATX: tell me about it. I didn't think twice about buying into this market; saving my money for a city that's more serious about light rail - Dallas. Austin is pathetically behind the times on this issue, and it contends itself to be a very "green" city. Case-in-point: an elementary school one of my coworkers is designing is being built per "green" building standards. Where is it being built, you might ask? Right OVER the Barton Springs aquifer, replete with asphalt parking, in the middle of suburbia. Insane :roll:
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby mmasters » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 18:43:31

Here's what I believe.

The markets wont be changing their ways. Within 5 years the beginning of the great collapse will be triggered in advance. Until then the elites of the world will continue to drive globalization as far as possible further marginalizing everything - thus making it easier to globally manage. And when the global financial system is fully integrated we will see the great global market crash or a series of crashes. The worlds stock exchanges are in the process of merging and being consolidated right now.

This is survival of the fittest with the global financial system and inside knowledge of peak oil as a medium to that goal. Put it this way, give another 30-50 years moving ahead like we are now and the human race will extinct itself through mass depletion. So better to wipe out the vast majority in advance, structure it so only the strongest, smartest and most adaptable survive. This will be the new work force.

In the process the elites take large scale control and ownership of all that's needed to survive nicely in the future and provide for future generations of them -- this is the supreme agenda. Whether it will work out that way remains to be seen but that is what I believe is "the grand plan".
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Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby pea-jay » Sat 08 Jul 2006, 04:22:06

Great schemes usually wind up grand disasters, if they are attempted at all. My money is still on an unplanned series of crashes, in part triggered/exacerbated by human involvment. We stumbled into globalized civilization, we'll stumble out as well.
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Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby rogerhb » Sat 08 Jul 2006, 04:44:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I') know such a guy, who feeds himself for last 6 months well and in sustainable fashion despite of being only 6 months old.


Ironic, we start life out as parasites....
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Re: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Mon 10 Jul 2006, 14:36:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'I')F WE LEFT IT TO THE "FREE MARKET"


well said Pea-Jay.
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