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A question - a question that needs answering

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:11:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jacksoncage', 'H')ow many pyschology courses did you take in high school? College?

Matt, I've read your site. I've read thousands of sites related to peak oil, global warming and alternative energy. Some are blogs, some are activist sites, and others are the sites of AE/PO/GW-related companies.

I've spent the last four years reading up on all of these different topics. I read your book, Simmons' book, Yergin's book, even Jimmy Kunstler's, and as many others as I could. I even read Al Gore's latest.

I've come to a conclusion. There is jack-shit that I can do about any of this on a global scale. I am condemned to wait, and watch events unfold. I watch the news, I check the settled price of oil, and on my daily walks I see gas prices. I walk around town and see what folks are doing about them.

Every now and then I go the nearest major city and see what people are doing about them there.

And I must say, I walk away impressed. It isn't one singular thing that causes me to be optimistic, it's a constant flow of information and knowledge of my surroundings that tells me that people will adapt. There will be no singular, overnight, cataclysmic switch from oil. These things take time, money and ingenuity. It is often argued that humanity doesn't have much of the first. We shall see. It's fact that many don't personally have much of the second. Whether this becomes a pandemic in America also remains to be seen. It's a given that the third is abundant. We wouldn't have gotten where we are today without it. I remain optimistic, but cautious, having read all of the books I can on these topics which concern our future. Deletion and denial do not enter into my thought process.


How would you know if you were deleting or deny information? If you were deleting it, you would not even know.

As far as ingenuity, compare the amount of money being spent to develop weapons used to fight/defend oil and gas to the amount being spent to develop alternatives to oil and gas.

Then compare the rate at which those numbers have increased in the last 5 years. Even with massive growth in alternative energy, the growth in oil, gas, and weapons has been far greater.

That is one fact you may have deleted/denied from your conscious existence.

If you look over human history, most of the most ingenius developments gained their power/potency from their military applications. This includes everything from antibiotics to atom bombs.

Best,

Matt
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:14:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jacksoncage', ' ')These things take time, money and ingenuity. It is often argued that humanity doesn't have much of the first. We shall see. It's fact that many don't personally have much of the second. Whether this becomes a pandemic in America also remains to be seen. It's a given that the third is abundant. .


The third is abundant, but useless unless you have the energy to bring it to fruition. Read my Energy and the Mother of Invention thread.


Exactly. Hitler had far, far superior technology to the U.S. The Thrid Reich had the prototypes for stealth fighters, jet fighters, and some other truly amazing weapons. But they ran out of resources, primarily oil, to build and distribute them.

Meanwhile, the Allies used 6 billion barrels of oil, which 5 billion came from U.S. soil to outproduce hitler and tojo. We didn't have the tech they had but we had enough oil to build enough tanks, planes, etc. we ending up winning.

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Matt
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Let's extrapolate then

Postby Jacksoncage » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:17:20

Following that logic, a source of energy can be ramped up and implemented to feed a war effort, not unlike the the movement to build the bomb and the development of chemical weapons. First developed for its military application, it could then be distributed to the public.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:22:43

Not quite. The high EROEI (read: practically free) energy was just sitting there in East Texas in a convenient, dense form waiting to be used.The same cannot be said for what we have today be it in the way of oil, or the alternatives.

If you're thinking was indeed logical, Hitler or Tojo's scientist would have been able to come up with an alternative to the oil they did not possess. The best they could come up with coal-to-oil and that barely kept them functional.

The Germans and the Japanese industries were both known for their efficiency and their industriousness. They were certainly as natively intelligent as AMericans were. And they were just as motivated, if not more so, to beat us then we were to beat them.

What made the difference? Well, we had the oil and they didn't. (And thank God that was the case.)

Best,

Matt
Last edited by MattSavinar on Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:25:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby Graeme » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:23:32

Matt, Great to correspond with you. Your fame to me is related to the lifeaftertheoilcrash web site, which has dramatically increased the awareness of Peak Oil. For that, you'll be remembered. However, this is really only one possible future. There are an infinite number of them depending on how we all collectively react to changes around us, and who has the greatest influence. I think that a capitalistic society tempered with a socialistic government is the best one to live in, though even this is not perfect. There is always injustice in any society. I've lived in the Philippines for 3 years and experienced poverty there first hand. Images that are still particularly vivid in my mind are a blind man (with empty eye sockets and a flap of skin over a hole in the centre of his face) who played a guitar every day in a public square to earn a living; a legless beggar who pushed himself around on a trolley and asked for food in restaurants; and families of boat people (including elderly women) who dived into the water to catch coins thrown from ferries. Filipinos have strong family ties; that gives them purpose. I have been deeply affected by these experiences. I also read recently an excellent book called Hidden Agendas by John Pilger. He describes beautifully the strong will of people in places like Burma and East Timor to fight back against the enormous injustices thrown at them. That gives them purpose. You, as a lawyer, should understand injustice, and I expect you are assisting those who have been hard done by. The difficulties that people in third-world countries faced are not due to problems associated with energy. The future of the world very much depends on what happens in the United States. We are looking to you for leadership. There are encouraging signs of change and hope. I don't accept that there will be an energy deficit in your country or in mine in future. There is admittedly a potential for a disastrous future but we must try our best to prevent that happening. Consquently, I will never subscribe to your negative views. Why don't you try to paint a more positive future for your country and humanity? That's what would give people purpose to try and strive toward that future.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:31:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '.') However, this is really only one possible future. There are an infinite number of them depending on how we all collectively react to changes around us, and who has the greatest influence. .


Look at the events of the past 5 years, at people's collective reactions, at who has the influence in society today. I don't think you need to look much further than that to see the most probable future for society at large.

As far as what will happen to you or me as individuals, that is a bit more up to us.

Best,

Matt
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:36:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'W')hy don't you try to paint a more positive future for your country and humanity? That's what would give people purpose to try and strive toward that future.


That's like asking me to paint a more positive view of the oil war in Iraq. You're basically asking me to lie or make stuff up. "Sure, the oil war in Iraq looks really bad right now but with more technology, ingenuity, and some good ole fashion community building we still have hope for a positive outcome!"

Come on, get real.

As far as a purpose, I give it at the bottom of the main page:

1. relocate if you can
2. get your fat ass into shape
3. pay off your debt
4. have people around you who have your back
5. learn a skill you think will have value
6. get your finances into shape

There you have it. Start attacking goals 1-6 listed above for your source of hope.

Best,

Matt
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:55:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')
As far as a purpose, I give it at the bottom of the main page:

1. relocate if you can
2. get your fat ass into shape
3. pay off your debt
4. have people around you who have your back
5. learn a skill you think will have value
6. get your finances into shape



On Sept 8, 2004, my third or fourth post here was:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')ere are my priorities:

1. Get out of debt.
2. Get out of the city. ( I just moved from San Diego)
3. Put your money in precious metals.
4. Sell your house and get someplace smaller and cheaper while you have the equity. Housing prices are going to collapse big time.
5. Upgrade your disaster preparedness kit.
6. Try to find work where you don't need a car to commute.
7. Make capital investments to improve your energy efficiency.
8. Stay away from "leisure activities" jobs. Luxury fuel use vehicles, boats, RV's, although RV's may be the home for a lot of people.
9. Surround yourself with people who you can count on. Not just trust, but who have abilities..MacGyver types.
10. Join peak oil.com


I might change that precious metals to precious land.

Matt's #4 and my # 9 are the top priorities.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:57:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby untothislast » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 03:56:24

Suicide and depression are the self-indulgent hallmarks of a society with too much time on its hands. There are people living in countries who have so many real problems ranged against them, that they spend all their waking time just trying to hang on. Yet, they're not trying to kill themselves; gunning down their classmates; or generally feeling life isn't worth living - just because they haven't got SUVs - or have a 'lifestyle' like Paris Hilton.

We're entering a period of re-alignment. It's necessary, and it's been a long time coming.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby aflatoxin » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 04:08:57

I would like to submit this addition to Matt's List:

0. Attitude is everything.

I like to look at my day like this: I woke up. That means I still have a pulse. Things could be worse. Let's see what today's challenges will be like.

There are some pretty happy people out there who have no excuse to be upbeat. There are also some some real miserable folk, who by most metrics have the world at their feet.

I also like to think that each person is responsible for their own life. If someone is unhappy, it is not my fault.

Items 2-6 assume the individual has taken responsibility for their own life. Item 1 is really the only random factor.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby Graeme » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 04:15:21

Matt, Let's look at this from a slightly different angle. What I'm thinking is something like political or human rights activism. That's where it's possible to initiate change for others not for yourself. Look at the enormous influence people like Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King, Jr have had on human rights. Don't you think that these people had a positive influence on society? As far as PO is concerned, then I would look to people like Amory Lovins in your country. He has influenced government energy policies not only in your country but many others as well.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby Vexed » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 04:19:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). relocate if you can


Super-safe secure location in a small town within 40 miles of one semi-big metropolitan city. Downtown has shipping/boat access, as well as major rail access. Tons of organic farming. Tons of connected neighbors. Tons of forward thinking.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). get your fat ass into shape


5:48 mile and 250 bench press.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3'). pay off your debt


Funny you should mention it. My fear of credit cards has managed to leave me with no credit at all. Literally. I walk into a car dealership and they can't even find me when they search for credit ratings. Therefore, I pay for everything in cash. Retailers hate it. Most of their money these days is made on financing. Money? What's money they ask?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'). have people around you who have your back


I would kill for my family. I know they would do the same.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '5'). learn a skill you think will have value

I play 4 instruments. one really good.

I have worked in multiple situations as a construction worker. I feel like I can build something safe and dependable if tshtf.

I have a keen knowledge of herbal medicine and I may perhaps be useful if current medicines become unavailable.

I am prepared for a shtf event. People will need me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '6'). get your finances into shape

Done.





That was fun!

See how simple it is to survive an apocalypse!
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby rsch20 » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 04:58:50

responding to the original post, havent read the rest yet, or whatever got cut out =p

It's an interesting question, the most basic answer is 'because I want to live'. which is true for nearly everyone, things have to get pretty bad before voluntarily choosing to end your existence. which is the only other option from 'carrying on'. if you aren't ready to kill yourself yet then 'carrying on' is the only option whether you are rich or poor.

that said, I've had some rough times in my life and I can't say I've never thought about it, perhaps irrationally, PO is one of the reasons I do 'carry on'. I'm curious enough to see whats going to happen that I'm willing to accept some pretty miserable circumstances in my life to get there.

thats not the only thing though, PO isn't the only threat hanging over us, theres a thread listing some of them, but Omega Point is the most interesting one to me, and I'm very very curious to see if we will go through a technological singularity or not, even if there is only a 1% chance that the singularity happens instead of collapse it's worth sticking around to find out. unless a bus hits me first.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby RonMN » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 08:34:06

I call myself a doomer...so why do I continue on?

Simple...

Life might be a bitch...but the alternative is unacceptable!
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 10:43:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'M')att, Let's look at this from a slightly different angle. What I'm thinking is something like political or human rights activism. That's where it's possible to initiate change for others not for yourself. Look at the enormous influence people like Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King, Jr have had on human rights. Don't you think that these people had a positive influence on society? As far as PO is concerned, then I would look to people like Amory Lovins in your country. He has influenced government energy policies not only in your country but many others as well.


Follow the money. Lovins is funded by the Pentagon and several Fortune 500 companies. The former CEO of Bechtel wrote the forward for his book, "Winning the Oil Endgame."

Lovins' is a tool for the military industrial complex and, as he has with many others, he's duped you.

Best,

Matt
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 10:44:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'M')att, Let's look at this from a slightly different angle. What I'm thinking is something like political or human rights activism. That's where it's possible to initiate change for others not for yourself. Look at the enormous influence people like Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King, Jr have had on human rights. Don't you think that these people had a positive influence on society? .


Not in the absence of an increasing availability of energy.

Take MLK as an example. Would the civil rights movement have been successfull had the economy not been growing at an unprecedented rate during the 1950s and 1960s, fueled by an unprecedented rise in energy availability?

Not likely.

Is it any coincidence that the progress in racial equality as measured by most any economic data has largely plateaued and in some cases actually receeded since U.S. domestic peak in 1971. I can't prove a connection, but I strongly suspect there is one.

As far as MLK's motivation for what he did, it had nothing to do with having a positive influence on society. He did what he did cause it got him laid. From Ralph Abernathy's biography:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')uch has been written in recent years about my friend's weakness for women. Had others not dealt with the matter in such detail, I might have avoided any commentary. Unfortunately, some of these commentators have told only the bare facts without suggesting the reasons why Martin might have indulged in such behavior. They have also left a false impression about the range of his activities.

Martin and I were away more often than we were at home; and while this was no excuse for extramarital relations, it was a reason. Some men are better able to bear such deprivations than others, though all of us in SCLC headquarters had our weak moments. We all understood and believed in the biblical prohibition against sex outside of marriage. It was just that he had a particularly difficult time with that temptation.

In addition to his personal vulnerability, he was also a man who attracted women, even when he didn't intend to, and attracted them in droves. Part of his appeal was his predominant role in the black community and part of it was personal. During the last ten years of his life, Martin Luther King was the most important black man in America. That fact alone endowed him with an aura of power and greatness that women found very appealing. He was a hero — the greatest hero of his age — and women are always attracted to a hero.

But he also had a personal charm that ingratiated him with members of the opposite sex. He was always gracious and courteous to women, whether they were attractive to him or not. He had perfect manners. He was well educated. He was warm and friendly. He could make them laugh. He was good company, something that cannot always be said of heroes. These qualities made him even more attractive in close proximity than he was at a distance.

Then, too, Martin's own love of women was apparent in ways that could not be easily pinpointed — but which women clearly sensed, even from afar. I remember on more than one occasion sitting on a stage and having Martin turn to me to say, "Do you see that woman giving me the eye, the one in the red dress?" I wouldn't be able to pick her out at such a distance, but already she had somehow conveyed to him her attraction and he in turn had responded to it. Later I would see them talking together, as if they had known one another forever. I was always a little bewildered at how strongly and unerringly this mutual attraction operated.

A recent biography has suggested without quite saying so that Martin had affairs with white women as well as black. Such a suggestion is without foundation. I can say with the greatest confidence that he was never attracted to white women and had nothing to do with them, despite the opportunities that may have presented themselves.
http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/outrage/mlking.asp

How old are you? My guess is you're on the young side and are still buying into our cultural myths including cultural myths regarding the social progress of the 20th century. Most of it only occurred because we had an energy pie that was growing, not because "people wanted to make a positive difference."

Best,

Matt
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby SoothSayer » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 11:14:20

can't prove a connection, but I strongly suspect there is one.

Interesting post.

The corollary is probably true:

decreasing energy supply -> social unrest -> racial & class conflict

So if a duality exists, your observation is probably correct:

energy availability allows ... and may even encourage ... improved social cohesion.
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 11:58:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '[')b] can't prove a connection, but I strongly suspect there is one.

Interesting post.

The corollary is probably true:

decreasing energy supply -> social unrest -> racial & class conflict

So if a duality exists, your observation is probably correct:

energy availability allows ... and may even encourage ... improved social cohesion.


It could also explain the rise of radical militant Christianity, which didn't really get going until the mid 1970s:

decreasing net energy / decreasing EROEI -> less energy to invest in things like the stock market, business, education -> people having to work harder to stay ahead of the curve -> people start looking for scapegoats/explanations for why things seem so much harder -> mind open to radical and militant ideologies.

It's not unlike what happened in the Weimar Republic except instead of occurring over the course of about 15-to-20 years, it's occuring over the course of 35-to-50.

I doubt it to be a conincidence the oil war in Iraq was promoted with very religious overtones to Bush's base. This is something people outside the evangelical community largely missed since the bible based buzzwords and catchphrases Bush would use when talking about the war were largely lost on non-evangelical ears. A lot of evangelicals supported the war because, among other reasons, they were told it would either:

A. bring on Armageddon

B. give them a new base of converts (from which money would eventually flow)

Since a lot of pastors are on Bush's payroll or hope to be on Bush's payroll via the office of faith based initiatives, they obviously had incentive to either actively promote the war or at least not to passively just be silent about it.

Best,

Matt
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 12:07:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '[')b] can't prove a connection, but I strongly suspect there is one.

Interesting post.

The corollary is probably true:

decreasing energy supply -> social unrest -> racial & class conflict

So if a duality exists, your observation is probably correct:

energy availability allows ... and may even encourage ... improved social cohesion.



I don't think it's a matter of absolute energy availability so much as whether the availability is moving up or down. If it is moving up, people perceive things are getting better. When they perceive that they tend to be angry a lot less.

If energy availability is high from an absolute standpoint but still decreasing, people percieve things are getting worse and then they get more hostile, particularly to people outside the tribe.

Put it this way:

Neighborhood A is a mixed race neighborhood with an average household income of $20,000/year that is increasing on average by 5% per year.

Neighborhoold B is a mixed race neighborhood with an average household income of $60,000/year that is decreasing on average by 5% per yedar.

My guess is that even though Neighborhood B has an income that is higher from an absolute standpoint, it will be the neighborhood with increasing levels of social unrest since people will percieve things are moving in the wrong direction.

When people percieve things are moving in the wrong direction, they naturally start looking for explanations. Being the tribalistic species we are, blaming the other tribes is almost a natural way to explain our problems. It may not be logical or true but what it does do is open the mind to the possibility of simply taking what the blameworthy tribe has and making it our own.

As an example, see the war in Iraq. People largely went along with it because they don't feel they're getting what's rightfully theirs. The war was sold as "we're gonna go kick some ass and it'll make us strong again like we were after WW II." If people percieved things were already getting better, I doubt they would have been so eager to buy the bullshit they were sold.

Best,

Matt
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Re: A question - a question that needs answering

Postby SoothSayer » Sun 09 Jul 2006, 12:18:44

Matt, you are talking too much sense here! It's certainly too high brow!

Image

Stop it immediately - we need to get back to talking about 9/11 conspiracies and how to defend our homes with 50-cal machine guns!
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