by ubercynicmeister » Fri 30 Jun 2006, 21:47:11
NO MATTER HOW OFTEN I CHECK THIS THING FER SPELLING, TYPOES ALWAYS GET PAST....
I note a disturbing trend appearing amongst the boards here: the desire to give the Baby Boomers a thorough kicking, deserved or undeserved about such things as Peak Oil. I must reply - if you place the blame for things like Peak Oil at the feet of the Baby Boomers, you place the blame too late.
The Baby Boomers were not responsible for things like Peak Oil. The decisions to replace steam with diesel for (say) rail travel was made in the 1930's. The huge replacement trend was delayed because of the Great Depression and the Second World War, and so started in earnest in 1945. Perfectly good steam locomotives, modern, efficient and easy to maintain were scrapped in favour of then-unreliable diesels, simply because diesel fuel cost a whole lot less than coal: US$0.08 per US gallon for diesel fuel in the 1940's as versus US$4.75 per tonne for coal. That's about a 3-to-1 advantage.
The middle of the 1950's marks the last time steam was as numerous as diesel on US rail travel and by the end of the 1950's / beginning of the 1960's steam was almost entirely gone in the US. Indeed, one of the things that marked the steam-to-diesel / rail-to-road transition is how obscenely hastily it was done. The process was repeated, with the same obscene haste, in the Britain, Europe, Australia, and all countries a little later on. But those decision-makers who decided against steam and rail, in favour of diesels and roads, would have been born around the turn of the Century (1900's) and educated in the New Ways in the 1920's and 1930's, when tradition was being slowly strangled. The Second World War marks the real end of Traditional Times, when Tradition, especially Traditional Ethics, was finally murdered. This is the point that C.S. Lewis was trying to make in his book "The Abolition Of Man" (something that all Peak Oilers should read if they want to understand the real spirit behind what's driving us inexorably past the Peak). No, the decisions to use Oil and only Oil were made when The Baby Boomers were still infants or even unborn. Another example if this is Winston Churchill, then First Lord Of The British Admiralty, who made the decision to switch the British Navy entirely to Oil in 1913, long before the Baby Boomers' parents had even married. Peak Oil can be directly traced back to Winston Churchill's decision in 1913. As a historical side-note, the British Admiralty was persuaded to adopt Oil simply because Oil from Iran (!!!) was then cheaper than anything else they could buy.
The Baby Boomers were offered a massive energy subsidy that appeared to have a mid-point further off than most people can think about - if Peak Oil happened in 2005, then in 1955, that event was still 50 years away. And if it took 50 years to get half-way...heck....the run-out point must be even FURTHER off, right?
Think about it: if you are born into a world where everyone still has memories fresh from the Great Depression and the most destructive conflict the world has ever seen, the Second World War, and you are suddenly offered a massive economic boost in terms of what seems to be almost free energy. This energy source will give you every form of "push button" convenience and new modes of fast transport which are personalised to the point of being offered in the colour you want, and the supply of the stuff keeping all this New Ideal going (ie: Oil) was predicted to run out long after you are dead (by which time obviously someone would have developed an alternative)...could anyone refuse to use it? And how the heck would the average Politician - assuming they did not wish to go down that road (pun intended) - how could they explain such a difficult-to-understand decision to their entire electorate? Would not such a decision have been labelled "obscurantist"? "Luddite"? To put such a decision into modern context: imagine some political leader someplace deciding to opt out of the Internet. Everyone would automatically issue howls of derision about such, but Peak Oil could be delayed a little if we all did not have this desire (I include myself) for computers & internetting.
I know *I* would have a difficult time saying "no" to such an offering as Cheap Oil. I know I would have an almost impossible time trying to justify not having (say) the Internet access, in spite of the fact that it consumes irreplaceable resources. This is the very situation the Baby Boomers had in the 1950's. The then-unquestionable "Progress is automatic and always good" mantra , and it's converse "Old Is Bad", was in unquestioned operation at the time. The Traditional conservative (in the sense that Conservationists use it) lifestyle was "Old", all right. It was millenia old. Hence it must be "bad", right? In any case, of COURSE someone would have gotten around to discovering a Non Oil Energy Source 50 years after the 1950's...absurd not to think otherwise.
So spend, spend spend the Oil, and now (2006)...we discover that progress is not always good, and not always automatic. As someone said in the late 1960's :
"Progress??? We have made so much 'progress' we can no longer speak with confidence of human survival..."
The first, cold hint of the later Peak Oil ice-storm had already chilled humanity, but lightly. The first Shadow of the later Oil Crisis had appeared, but on the edges of vision. However, the Oil-Based Economic Sun of the 1950's, 60's, and 70's still shone, and other breezes were warmer. Why think of the cold, when you can have Oil-fuelled Fun in the Sun?
So let's not be harsh towards the Baby Boomers. I am not one - I was born in 1969, but I can say this: given the same set of circumstances and the same blandishments of modernity offered, my generation, indeed, ALL generations would have given in to the deadly embrace accompanying the siren call of the Oil Well.
To repeat: The Baby Boomers were not responsible for things like Peak Oil. To place the blame there is to place the blame too late, time-wise. Peak Oil was made inevitable in 1913 by Winston Chiurchill's decision to convert the British Navy to Oil, a decision at the time that had massive unintended consequences. Winston Churchill was not a Baby Boomer.
.
"To Get Rich you have to:
*Get up early;
*Work Hard;
*Strike Oil"
J Paul Getty