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Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby smiley » Sat 24 Jun 2006, 18:36:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Monte', 'C')an we afford cost-saving energy efficiency?
This is the question posed by the ecological economists Mathias Wackernagel and William Rees. They write (1997):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he answer is 'yes' only if efficiency gains are taxed away or otherwise removed from further economic circulation. Preferably they should be captured for reinvestment in natural capital rehabilitation.


Many economists of all persuasions seem to agree that improving energy efficiency through technological means will, by lowering the implicit price, result in increased, not decreased, energy use. Energy efficiency gains can increase energy consumption by two means: by making energy appear effectively cheaper than other inputs; and by increasing economic growth, which increases energy use. This certitude is the result of almost 150 years - since Jevons in the 1860s - of theoretical discussion on resource use, and empirical evidence from historic analysis of energy use in economies.


I don't understand your interpretation Monte. The quote clearly states that Jevons paradox can be bypassed if you prevent the price from dropping.

That is possible by taxation.

Take my natural gas bill for instance. We have two tariffs. The lowest tariff is for an average efficient household. When you surpass that tariff (you have a energy inefficient household) you pay the higher tariff.

The money that is collected by these taxes is redistributed in the form of subsidies. For instance when you buy a efficient heater, floor insulation or double glazing for your house you get a subsidy.

The program has been evaluated early this year and it shows that since the program was launched 10 years ago it has led to a 22% decrease in household consumption. As electric heating and oil heating is absent here that is entirely caused by increased efficiency, not by people switching.

And as far as I'm aware off it has not led to a negative economic impact. Al the money that has been extracted is returned to the economy.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 24 Jun 2006, 21:36:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', ' ')I don't understand your interpretation Monte. The quote clearly states that Jevons paradox can be bypassed if you prevent the price from dropping.

That is possible by taxation.


Or by raising the price as efficiency increases. I don't know why you are confused. I have been quite consistent in my position on this.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd as far as I'm aware off it has not led to a negative economic impact. Al the money that has been extracted is returned to the economy.


And therein lies the rub. This money cannot be returned to the economy if it provides an increased ability to consume elsewhere. The money has to be spent to further reduce consumption, not allow for more.

You have to think the subsidy flow through.

Is there a net reduction in overall household energy use, or just gas consumption? Does the money and energy spent on insulation or other efficiency measures negate the gas savings or actually increase energy use?

Even if it shows a gain, what happens to the money that is spent on insulation and other efficiency measures? When the contractor is paid, does it he spend it on futher conservation measures, or does he buy a new Hummer?

If he spends it on a Hummer, then you are back to square one.

Conservation tax subsidies must only be spent to further reduce consumption forever to be effective. Otherwise, you have just shifted the sector of consumption from natural gas to Hummer purchases.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 01:22:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Since I make physical objects for a living, I don't understand the "service economy." I don't understand how there can be an entire economy based on not actually doing or making anything.

The entire economy can't be service-based; service industries are by and large totally dependent upon manufacturing. Without manufacturing, few service industries could exist. Someone has to make the computers which IT services rely on, and we can't all massage our neighbours for a living.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby smiley » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 12:30:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven if it shows a gain, what happens to the money that is spent on insulation and other efficiency measures? When the contractor is paid, does it he spend it on further conservation measures, or does he buy a new Hummer?

If he spends it on a Hummer, then you are back to square one.


LOL ..... Vehicles are taxed on a weight basis. The vehicle tax for a Hummer H1 is $320 per month. For comparison a light hatchback like a Peugeot 205 costs you about $12 per month. So your contractor (i)needs to make a lot of money and (ii) must be very desperate to own a big car.

By implementing progressive taxing on all major components of the energy use you can prevent the spillover effect you describe.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s there a net reduction in overall household energy use, or just gas consumption?


Gas is a such a big component of our energy use, so I would say that overall energy consumption is dropping.

However electricity use is increasing despite a similar program. This is mainly due to the increased market penetration of dishwashers, flat screen TV's and computers. I guess the gas program is more effective since everybody already had a heating system.

On the bright side the generation by alternative means (solar, wind) is also growing due to subsidies. It is now at 13% of the total electricity generation.


These programs are not far-reaching enough to do anything about Peakoil, and I wonder whether you will ever get the political backup for a program that does. But I think they prove the principle of using taxes to steer public behavior.

IMO a solution to PO must contain three elements.

1) Population reduction
2) Eliminating unnecessary consumption
3) Increasing the efficiency of those things we need to do.

Now you can appeal to the public and corporate conscience, to do something about it, but I think we both agree that is not a viable option.

You have to understand what people do listen to. I am of the opinion that the quickest way to get the peoples attention is via their wallet.

What you do is you make some kind of benchmark. That is how you want people to behave. Then via selective taxing you punish those who fail to reach the benchmark, reward those who are doing better than the benchmark, and help those who want to improve their behavior.


Taxation does not equal to killing the economy, that is a corporate fairytale. A fairytale that has been told so many times and with so much persuasion that unfortunately those who actually strive for sustainability are starting to believe it.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 12:46:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', ' ')
Taxation does not equal to killing the economy, that is a corporate fairytale. A fairytale that has been told so many times and with so much persuasion that unfortunately those who actually strive for sustainability are starting to believe it.


But, we must kill the economy as we know it. That is the goal.

From Dr. Albert Bartlett:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst Law

Population growth and/or growth in the rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained.


A) A population growth rate less than or equal to zero and declining rates of consumption of resources are necessary conditions for a sustainable society.


B) Unsustainability will be the certain result of any program of "development," whether or not it is said to be "sustainable," that ignores the problem of population growth and that does not plan the achievement of zero or a period of negative growth of populations and of rates of consumption of resources.


C) The research and regulation programs of governmental agencies that are charged with protecting the environment and promoting sustainability" are, in the long run, irrelevant unless these programs address vigorously and quantitatively the determination of optimal population sizes that can be carried indefinitely and unless the programs study in depth the demographic causes and consequences of environmental problems.


D) Societies, or sectors of a society, that depend on population growth or growth in their rates of consumption of resources, are unsustainable.


E) Persons who advocate population growth and/or growth in the rates of consumption of resources are advocating unsustainability.


F) Persons whose actions directly or indirectly cause increases in population or in the rates of consumption of resources are moving society away from sustainability. (Advertising your city or state as an ideal site in which to locate new factories indicates a desire to increase the population of your city or state.)


G) The term "sustainable growth" is an oxymoron.


There are 16 more here:

http://www.design-site.net/bart1mag.htm
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 12:52:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven if it shows a gain, what happens to the money that is spent on insulation and other efficiency measures? When the contractor is paid, does it he spend it on further conservation measures, or does he buy a new Hummer?

If he spends it on a Hummer, then you are back to square one.


LOL ..... Vehicles are taxed on a weight basis. The vehicle tax for a Hummer H1 is $320 per month. For comparison a light hatchback like a Peugeot 205 costs you about $12 per month. So your contractor (i)needs to make a lot of money and (ii) must be very desperate to own a big car.


You miss the point. The effect is the same whether it is a Hummer or a Peugeot. We are talking about using the energy savings to consume more stuff that took energy to make. You just shifted the consumption of energy from one sector to another; insulation to automobiles. One becomes more efficient, (gas use) freeing up money that is now spent elsewhere. Depending upon what it is spent on, these tax subsidies could, and most likely will, increase energy consumption.

Which is what Jevon's Paradox says will happen.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby smiley » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 15:41:52

Monte,

- What you cal a solution (powerdown) I call the problem
- What you call our goal (destroying the economy) I call my greatest fear.

The difference between you and me is that you want to solve humans problems altogether, I don't. Let me be frank with you.

The point for me is the following. Within now and say 5 years the oil production will start its inevitable slide downhill. That is a problem for me. I've worked very hard to get where I'm now. I am happily married, have a nice bunch of friends, have an interesting job, have a good place to call home. I have a lot to loose.

I don't mind giving up a lot of things. Most of my friends say I have a Spartan lifestyle already. I certainly have an energy and environmentally conscious lifestyle. But what I do not and will not compromise on is happiness.

Now some say you can be happy when you're poor (I tried it and it didn't work), some say that you even can find happiness in a war (but that's baloney). Happiness is easiest found in a period of stability, not during a recession, depression or worse.

A solution for me is something which is able to bring relative stability for the next 50 years. After that I'm dead and it is someone else's problem.

Call it selfish, I don't care. All I want, a quiet life and maybe leave this world a little better place than when I started off.

Bioethanol, hydrogen and all that Cornucopian crap will not make it that long. We will hit the wall just as hard, maybe even harder a few years from now. Conservation and efficiency increases can make the distance. From my perspective these are thus perfectly viable solutions.

In the long term they are probably not. But then again. If you want to solve all the worlds problems we should probably commit mass suicide anyway.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby Concerned » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 16:08:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'M')onte,

- What you cal a solution (powerdown) I call the problem


Powerdown is NOT poweroff. It's essentially using less energy. Being poor is a material comparison game, designed to keep you working so you are comparitavely richer than others you are aware of.

Take a small tribal village similar to when Columbus landed on the islands on the way to the new world. The natives who by todays standards were poor, greeted Columbus with smiles and gifts.

The reason you or I for that matter don't like poor is because we compare our situation with those who are not poor.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')- What you call our goal (destroying the economy) I call my greatest fear.


There is a difference between destroying the economy and reforming how it operates.

There are two ways we can do it. 1. Manage it in our own imperfect ways so that the disequlibrium can be softened on the population. 2. continue with business as usual and run the train off the cliff.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Bioethanol, hydrogen and all that Cornucopian crap will not make it that long. We will hit the wall just as hard, maybe even harder a few years from now. Conservation and efficiency increases can make the distance. From my perspective these are thus perfectly viable solutions.


Sounds like you are resigned to hitting the wall as you put it. You're just hoping to get as much out of the system before it goes *poof*

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')In the long term they are probably not. But then again. If you want to solve all the worlds problems we should probably commit mass suicide anyway.


We are well on the road to that end with our endless growth based paradigm, disregard the natural environment as having any value and hyper consumptive lifestyles.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 16:14:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', ' ')A solution for me is something which is able to bring relative stability for the next 50 years. After that I'm dead and it is someone else's problem.

Call it selfish, I don't care. All I want, a quiet life and maybe leave this world a little better place than when I started off.


And therein lies the problem. Everything you have to lose was unsustainable in the first place. Ill-gotten goods.

Of course, our culture didn't tell us that. We had to do the math ourselves as we got older.

So, yes, I will call it a selfish attitude. So what else is new? We have been oriented to quarter profits for decades with little regard to future generations.

You cannot have your cake and eat it too. In your pursuit of a quiet life, you leave the world worse than when you started off.

You will not see a relatively stable next fifty years under any circumstances.

We will fight over the remaining energy.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby smiley » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 17:06:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('concerend', 'P')owerdown is NOT poweroff. It's essentially using less energy. Being poor is a material comparison game, designed to keep you working so you are comparitavely richer than others you are aware of.


That is easy said from the comfort of your fluffy chair. I have travelled enough ends of the world to be able to say that there is nothing to romanticize about poverty.

Living in some shithole on a bowl of rice a day, hoping that you will not die of some terribly painful disease before 40 is no fun at all.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('concerned', 'T')here is a difference between destroying the economy and reforming how it operates.


I thought Monte's remark was pretty clear.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('monte', 'B')ut, we must kill the economy as we know it. That is the goal.


Or do you mean reformation in some phoenix type of way?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('monte', 'Y')ou cannot have your cake and eat it too. In your pursuit of a quiet life, you leave the world worse than when you started off.


I chose not to reproduce, so I did my part

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('monte', 'Y')ou will not see a relatively stable next fifty years under any circumstances.

We will fight over the remaining energy.

That is highly likely. But that doesn't stop a man from trying to prevent it. Fatalism has never been my thing. :-)
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 17:06:49

I've been powering down for a couple years now. I'm reducing my need to earn by living frugally, using less power, eating homegrown food. I don't see it as suffering or a problem. I know I have a long way to go, but if given a long enough period of transition ( a few more years), suffering should be reduced. The main drawback I see for myself personally is a shorter life expectancy. My grandmother lived to 102. I don't expect to live that long, due to health problems that may not be treatable in a powerdown scenario.

Sudden forced powerdown would cause suffering. Merely powering down need not cause suffering. But if most folks see any kind of powerdown as "the problem" we're far more likely to end up with a sudden forced powerdown ("power off"). There's no way to avoid an eventual powerdown. Flailing around looking to avoid it will just makes things much worse. Like Monte's living beyond one's means analogy. One can choose to live within one's means and phase out one's debts, or one can just keep spending money one doesn't have and then get thrown onto the street or in debtors' prison. Personally, I'd rather live within my means, to the best of my ability.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby smiley » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 17:28:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve been powering down for a couple years now. I'm reducing my need to earn by living frugally, using less power, eating homegrown food. I don't see it as suffering or a problem. I know I have a long way to go, but if given a long enough period of transition ( a few more years), suffering should be reduced. The main drawback I see for myself personally is a shorter life expectancy. My grandmother lived to 102. I don't expect to live that long, due to health problems that may not be treatable in a powerdown scenario.


That is also not what I see as suffering. I'm also living quite consciously. I don't mind growing my own food, I'm already doing that.

But imagine that when you go to the hospital and find out that the only tools available are a hacksaw and a bottle of rum.

This is the kind of powerdown some are suggesting. It all looks nice and romantic, living in your shack catching fish in the creek. But there are some serious repercussions.

My grandmother died when she was about 35 due to lack of medical care. That is when my grandfather decided to take his chances and to seek asylum in the west.

I am not going back.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 03:47:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('concerned', 'T')here is a difference between destroying the economy and reforming how it operates.


I thought Monte's remark was pretty clear.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('monte', 'B')ut, we must kill the economy as we know it. That is the goal.


Or do you mean reformation in some phoenix type of way?



Definately in the phoenix type of way. Reform as in STOP the current infinte growth based madness and start with a new world view.

Specifically what that is I don't know. Stable to slowly reducing numbers of humans, less industrialisation for the sake of cars, aircraft, iPods. More clever use of resources so people are healthier and perhaps live to their mid to late 70's on average.

Our current system if uncheckes WILL end in disaster.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('monte', 'Y')ou cannot have your cake and eat it too. In your pursuit of a quiet life, you leave the world worse than when you started off.


I chose not to reproduce, so I did my part.


Me either oh well, sometimes I think it would be nice to have a child.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('monte', 'Y')ou will not see a relatively stable next fifty years under any circumstances.

We will fight over the remaining energy.

That is highly likely. But that doesn't stop a man from trying to prevent it. Fatalism has never been my thing. :-)

Fatalism and defeatism these were also terms used in the dying days of WWII Germany. Sometimes a realistic assesment no matter how sober is the best tonic.

I freely admit Im a hypocrite, I burn plenty of fossil fuel juice both at home and work. I agree wholeheartedly living in a mud hut with no power is not what we are conditioned to as being acceptable living let alone fun.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 22:05:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '
')But imagine that when you go to the hospital and find out that the only tools available are a hacksaw and a bottle of rum.

This is the kind of powerdown some are suggesting.


What in the world are you reading? Whatever it is, I would stop.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 08:10:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '
')But imagine that when you go to the hospital and find out that the only tools available are a hacksaw and a bottle of rum.

This is the kind of powerdown some are suggesting.


What in the world are you reading? Whatever it is, I would stop.


I don't see why reducing the need for energy would require we unlearn all we have learned in the field of medicine for the past hundred years or so. That doesn't make a lick o' sense to me. :roll:
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby Doly » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 08:42:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '
')But imagine that when you go to the hospital and find out that the only tools available are a hacksaw and a bottle of rum.


Even in the most desperate scenario I can imagine, doctors could do a lot better than that.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby Jenab6 » Wed 05 Jul 2006, 02:08:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')n our current world, lowering the amount we consume will put someone out of work. Much of our consumption, while wanton and unecessary, employs millions.
That's only true if we only consume material goods. Human services are part of consumption too, and other than the energy requirements of the person executing the service, does not require any material inputs.

Maybe your hunger cravings can be satisfied if someone else combs your hair for a sufficiently long period of time.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby Jenab6 » Wed 05 Jul 2006, 03:12:59

Here's an appropriate quote that I found in The Lightning and the Sun

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Savitri Devi', 'T')hat resigned submission to the terrible law of decay—that acceptance of the bondage of time by creatures who dimly feel that they could be free from it, but who find it hard to try to free themselves; who know beforehand that they would never succeed, even if they did try—is at the bottom of that incurable unhappiness of man, deplored again and again in the Greek tragedies, and long before these were written. Man is unhappy because he knows, because he feels, in general, that the world in which he lives and of which he is a part, is not what it should be, what it could be. He cannot wholeheartedly accept that world as his—specially not accept the fact that it is going from bad to worse—and be glad. However much he may try to be a "realist" and snatch from destiny whatever he can, when he can, still an invincible yearning for the better remains at the bottom of his heart. He cannot, in general, will the world as it is.

But a few people, as rare as the liberated ones, for whom time does not exist, and perhaps rarer, can and do. These are the most thorough, the most mercilessly effective agents of the death forces on earth: supremely intelligent, and sometimes extraordinarily farsighted; always unscrupulous to the utmost; working without hesitation and without remorse in the sense of the downward process of history and, whether they can see or not as far as that, for its logical conclusion: the annihilation of man and of all life.

Naturally, they do not always see as far as that. But when they do, still they do not care. Since the law of time is what it is, and since the end must come, it is just as well that they should draw all the profit they possibly can from the process that is, anyhow, sooner or later, to bring about the end.

Since no one can re-create the primeval, lost paradise—no one but the wheel of time itself, after it has rolled its full course—then it is just as well that they, who can completely forget the distant vision, or who never had a glimpse of its dying glow; they, who can stifle in themselves the age old yearning for perfection, or rather, who never experienced it; it is just as well that they, I say, should squeeze out of the fleeing moment (whether minutes or years, it matters little) all the intense, immediate enjoyment they can, until the hour comes when they must die. It is just as well that they should leave their stamp upon the world, force generations to remember them, until the hour comes for the world to die. So they feel.

It makes little difference what suffering they might cause to men or other living creatures, by acting as they do. Both men and creatures are bound to suffer, anyhow. Just as well through them as through others, if that can forward the aims of these people. The aims of these people—of men within time, par excellence—are always selfish aims, even when, owing to their material magnitude and historical importance, they transcend immeasurably any one man's life, as they actually do, sometimes. For selfishness—the claim of the part to more place and to more meaning than is naturally allotted to it within the whole—is the very root of disintegration.

Now back to eBay, where somebody's selling wool blankets on the cheap...

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the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away

Unread postby weirdo27 » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 02:14:42

{merged by MQ}


I was reading some articles that the effects of declining oil production wont be devistating right away mostly due to the reason we have so much room to cut waste. This might cost jobs but atleast we will still have a lifestyle, and food and all that fun stuff. Than as we head farther down than things begin to get worse and worse.
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Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Tue 19 Sep 2006, 02:26:31

You should do a search for threads on this very topic - they're numerous. Basically, cutting the waste out of the economy is akin to cutting the economy out altogether. One man's waste: florists, stylists, hoteliers, real estate agents, insurance salesmen, all add up to jobs lost in the larger economy. Sure, it's waste and, sure, it should be cut before we all starve, but there's no real core to pare the economy back to - we've shipped that to China on a few thousand barges and traded it for the awesome service™ (read: waste) economy.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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