[Graeme]

Peak Oil = Urban Ruin

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hich brings us to the debate about peak oil. Let's just assume that world oil production peaks in about 15 years. What will that mean to us, in concrete terms? It won't mean we'll run out of oil right away. It only means that net oil availability will decline at an annual rate of about 2 percent thereafter, and we should expect that supply will be down by 20 percent by about 2035, when world population will be doubled, along with fuel consumption. This is still speculative and things might turn out differently, including development of new technologies that would make life a little easier, but it's going to a huge problem. It's safe to say that the general progression of events points to a scary future.

First, it implies that even if policy makers could replace all of the embargoed oil, major economic disruptions could still result from an embargo or just from limited supply. Secondly, policies designed to minimize demand disruptions can achieve significant benefits at low cost, and should have a high priority in policy matters pertaining to embargoes. That's a powerful argument for early planning.

[Leanan]

That is an excerpt from a book called Black Gold. You can read a longer excerpt at Energy Bulletin.

The interesting thing about it is the author, George Orwell, is an oil analyst and writer for both the Oil Daily and Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. So he knows what he's talking about. And he's pretty worried about peak oil.

[lotrfan55345]

World population will be doubled in 2035?!

[Atlantean_Relic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lotrfan55345', 'W')orld population will be doubled in 2035?!

[pea-jay]

Geologically there is no reason why a 2 or 4 or even a 10% decline in oil could still be put to good use. Just because the world could theoretically produce only 60MBD of oil in ten or 15 years isnt the end of the world. Thats still a lot of fucking oil.

The problem with a declining resource is OUR REACTION to it. Theren lies the problem. At the moment we have no way for our financial, economic or political system to reallocate the remaining supply and put it to effective use even as it shrinks. When we leave this issue to the markets or fight over it, it precludes some form of smooth transition and fuels the fear of many Peak Oilers that we are indeed, screwed. The real danger, (and it is indeed real) is that we will pass a point where we could transition civilization to have it run off of a more sustainable fuel supply and just cascade off into a full blown collapse, which benefits almost nobody.

[shortonoil]

pea-jay

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem with a declining resource is OUR REACTION to it.

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'A')t the moment we have no way for our financial, economic or political system to reallocate the remaining supply and put it to effective use even as it shrinks. When we leave this issue to the markets or fight over it, it precludes some form of smooth transition and fuels the fear of many Peak Oilers that we are indeed, screwed. The real danger, (and it is indeed real) is that we will pass a point where we could transition civilization to have it run off of a more sustainable fuel supply and just cascade off into a full blown collapse, which benefits almost nobody.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'T')he problem with a declining resource is OUR REACTION to it. Theren lies the problem. At the moment we have no way for our financial, economic or political system to reallocate the remaining supply and put it to effective use even as it shrinks.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'A')mtrack [sic]

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')he problem is that in a world of fiat currency based on debt and reliant on growth to continue, the declining resource of oil will result in the implosion of the worlds’ monetary financial systems. Without a dependable monetary system that is recognized by everyone, a complex technological global economy is impossible. Trinket and bead trading schemes are not going to work with the Chinese and I doubt that your power company is going to accept two dozen eggs for the last 235 KWh that you used.

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou have a lot more faith in George W. Bush and Hillary Clinton than I do.

Instead of millions of people voting with their dollars for innovative alternative technologies, you propose The State "do something".

[DesertBear2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '
')Instead of millions of people voting with their dollars for innovative alternative technologies, you propose The State "do something".

[TITAN]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lotrfan55345', 'W')orld population will be doubled in 2035?!

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', 'A')mericans have been voting with their dollars.....and they have voted themselves 80 million SUVs and a yearly production of 1,500,000 McMansions.

[shortonoil]

TITAN said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, the dieoff will occur long before that...

[JoeCoal]

Agreed. 2 out of 3 people alive today are unsustainable in the face of declining oil production.
I ate a huge plate of beans from my garden for dinner tonight. That's one day. I can't do it again tomorrow, but I'm going to figure out how, or die trying.

How many people can't even feed themselves ONCE?

[DigitalCubano]

This thread = typical doomer horsesh*t.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeCoal', 'A')greed. 2 out of 3 people alive today are unsustainable in the face of declining oil production.
I ate a huge plate of beans from my garden for dinner tonight. That's one day. I can't do it again tomorrow, but I'm going to figure out how, or die trying.

How many people can't even feed themselves ONCE?

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')Here we have a solution:
We will milk our women for life!
If you carry on milking, new and new milk is always produced...for ever!!!
Simple, healthy, sustainable...

Any better idea?

[jupiters_release]