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The "planet running out of crude" straw man

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The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Sun 18 Jun 2006, 10:26:16

That's what the WSJ thinks, that proponents of the Peak Oil theory believe that the planet is "running out of crude," so to speak. Well, here's the exact words of one of their latest articles, recently run in a local daily:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t doesn't appear that the planet is running out of crude, as proponents of the "peak oil" theory have argued. But some oil experts foresee the big Western oil companies running out of easy-to-tap oil, and most of them are already turning to harder-to-recover reserves.


Well, what better way to build a straw man and marginalize the beliefs of a few than to entirely misrepresent the views of that group? And note that the second sentence better captures (and offers a measure of solace, to boot!) the PO theory than anything the first had to say. :lol: Just part and parcel of mainstream media, I suppose. I just hope the few Americans that are reassured by these types of comments realize how and by whom they've been lied to one day.

:roll:

*edit* last one, I swear!
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby Novus » Sun 18 Jun 2006, 10:48:20

I have seen this strawman used against Peak Oil for a long time. Many people have no idea of the concept of peak. They use the glass of water analogy in that they can drink the second half as easily as they drank the first half and they don't have to worry about anything until it all gone. Little do they know about Hubbert curves or declining EROEI.
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby mekrob » Sun 18 Jun 2006, 10:56:09

They aren't completely horrible. If you have a password for the Journal check out this.

If not, I hope I don't break any laws by posting this...:

Yup... you're breaking US law when you do that... subscription content deleted.

They actually cite that it's a net energy loser and quote Pimental. I woulda thought they'd be begging for more subsidies and grants for ADM. They have a little sense, but pretty bad liars.
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby Aaron » Sun 18 Jun 2006, 11:27:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t doesn't appear that the planet is running out of crude, as proponents of the "peak oil" theory have argued. But some oil experts foresee the big Western oil companies running out of easy-to-tap oil, and most of them are already turning to harder-to-recover reserves.


This is essentially the peak oil argument.

They have correctly stated peak theory... just a wrong attribution.

PO is indeed about declining amounts of "easy" (read "conventional") oil production, and the transition to unconventional resources.

As Campbell et al have published many times.
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby MadMarcus » Sun 18 Jun 2006, 11:45:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')They have correctly stated peak theory... just a wrong attribution.

PO is indeed about declining amounts of "easy" (read "conventional") oil production, and the transition to unconventional resources.


Part of the confusion comes because peak oilers also talk about exponential growth and the dangers that it can hold. If you look at doubling times we are "running out of oil" if we keep growing.
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby EndOfSewers » Sun 18 Jun 2006, 11:49:27

Everything comes down to exponential growth. Peak Oil is just the first wall we'll run up against.

Of course, by the very nature of exponential growth, by the time there's any hint of a problem, it's far too late.
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sun 18 Jun 2006, 11:55:07

I read it mekrob before it was deleted (I think you have to pull out and post a few relevant lines but you can't post the whole thing). It went to show that WSJ may have some heated internal debate about PO going on. Next year, maybe the year after, the debate will eventually be over.
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Sun 18 Jun 2006, 11:57:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t doesn't appear that the planet is running out of crude, as proponents of the "peak oil" theory have argued. But some oil experts foresee the big Western oil companies running out of easy-to-tap oil, and most of them are already turning to harder-to-recover reserves.


This is essentially the peak oil argument.

They have correctly stated peak theory... just a wrong attribution.

PO is indeed about declining amounts of "easy" (read "conventional") oil production, and the transition to unconventional resources.

As Campbell et al have published many times.


Well, in that case, we've been "running out of oil" since the first drops came out of the ground in Pennsylvania. But, somehow, I don't think that the WSJ staff meant it in that sense, but more as a negative connotation for the PO crowd.
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Mon 19 Jun 2006, 06:08:29

Plus they TOTALLY ignore demand growth, and what would happen if their rediculous water analogy were true. The oil would vanish literally overnight and there would be absolutley none left after a further 20 or so years of growth.

Yer that sounds like a far better option. Its' a good job the laws of physics don't allow for it.
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 19 Jun 2006, 12:27:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')'ll let you in on a big secret of the Peak Oil Community. We are running out of crude. After several hundred million years the petroleum is about to be used up


Yes, again, in one sense we are "running out crude," but we've always been running out of crude, haven't we? Even when North Sea and Prudhoe came online and the world cheered for $10 oil, we were still "running out". "Running out" in this sense is not what a few editors at the WSJ are talking about. Hell, there's half of all the oil we have ever burned left in the ground! That's not "running out" is it? Not to these pricks, who can't see past the next 20-30 years (in other words, when they're dead and gone). Dare to mention demand growth or Jevon's Paradox and you'll get glazed-over eyes in return - after all, the market will take care of it...it always has, right?

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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby Falconoffury » Mon 19 Jun 2006, 15:42:31

The world will never run out of oil because we will never have the means to find and capture it all.

Oil will decline, which is different from running out. We will see a year on year decline of oil over a very long period of time.
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Re: The "planet running out of crude" straw man

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 04:55:30

Oil will decline, which is different from running out. We will see a year on year decline of oil over a very long period of time.

If we see declines of 10%+ it might not be that long falcon. The North sea are not the only wells to have been pumped to the limit.
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