[Jack]

The discussion of Peak Oil mitigation often assumes that other technologies will offset the flow of energy from oil. Unfortunately, inexpensive energy has masked trends that may create a multiplier effect for peak oil problems.

Earth’s expanding population of 6.5 billion seems headed to 9 billion, and the existing population does not enjoy a universally pleasant life. The rise of China and India, and the resultant impact of 2.3 billion aspiring consumers, has caused commodity prices of every sort to increase with energy prices. The demand for resources of every sort is increasing, and shows every sign of continuing to do so.

So far, we’ve used energy cover the shortages. If food is scarce, we can build pipelines that carry water hundreds of miles uphill, dig boreholes half a mile deep, and move riverbeds. We can build desalinization plants. If metals are in short supply, we can gather and process scrap or dig for poorer ores. Should an area lack supplies, we can move supplies in from other areas. Within this great dance, the common factor is convenient, plentiful, inexpensive energy.

What happens when the peak hits?

We will no longer have the energy to keep the mechanism going. We cannot grow enough food – not just because of a lack of fertilizer and pesticide, but because we cannot transport the seed to the farm, cannot bring water to the fields, and cannot move the crops to consumers. A decline of energy availability means more than not going out for pizza – it means death for a growing number of people. In addition, as people fight for life, they will also fight for energy; first in the figurative sense, with money. Later, they will fight for life in a literal sense.

Some will argue that shared sacrifice could prevent a mass die-off. Large societies don’t embrace such behavior for long. Expectations for the world to unite in sacrifice are baseless and absurd.

We must recognize the broad implications of peak oil. We may well need to conduct triage, deciding who survives and who does not. It is significant that energy availability will decline each year. Therefore, each year, we must conduct a new round of triage.

Eventually, energy income will match energy expenditure. We must prepare ourselves, as individuals and as nations, for the dangerous transition period between that future time and today. We will battle for survival, with no reward for second place.

[paoniapbud]

Good analysis Mod. We need to look at PO from the most fundamental level. I wouldn't even call this doomish. We continue to overestimate our ability to get through this unscathed.

Sorry techno-optimists, obfuscators, and ignorant; this is for real.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', ' ')
Some will argue that shared sacrifice could prevent a mass die-off. Large societies don’t embrace such behavior for long. Expectations for the world to unite in sacrifice are baseless and absurd.

[eric_b]

Excellent post. I agree.

While I'd like to be optimistic about Peak Oil an
unvarnished look at human nature and history tells
me it will be ugly.

[Cobra_Strike]

I started a doomer, because I grasped this concept from the beggining. I could see all the seperate issues that stand lockstep with oil production, it makes to much sense that there are just to many people.

[Ludi]

I know I'm a weirdo, but I'll stick to my guns - I'm not convinced there are "too many people." Certainly there are "too many people" living the way we currently live and alternate ways of living are not in place.

Solutions are possible but not likely.

Especially since so few are interested in the possible solutions that even those who are aware of the issues don't bother to learn about the solutions or promote them.

*shrug*

Whatever.

[Zardoz]

I keep re-visiting the "fast-forward button" analogy, but events continue to develop far faster than anyone expected. I have a terrible feeling that the die-offs we've been dooming about will begin much sooner than any of us anticipated.

There are just too many rapidly-worsening factors converging. We can't deal with them all at once.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Especially since so few are interested in the possible solutions that even those who are aware of the issues don't bother to learn about the solutions or promote them.

[SoothSayer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'I') keep re-visiting the "fast-forward button" analogy, but events continue to develop far faster than anyone expected. I have a terrible feeling that the die-offs we've been dooming about will begin much sooner than any of us anticipated.

There are just too many rapidly-worsening factors converging. We can't deal with them all at once.

[killJOY]

Jack, I was having such a nice day.

Now I'm going to be sick....

Not that I didn't intuit what you've just said, and so succinctly.

[SoothSayer]

As you say, oil (& natural gas) are connected to all sorts of activities.

Crops need transport & pesticide which in turn need oil.
Crops need water
Crops need fertiliser.
Fertiliser needs natural gas.
Water needs electricity.
Electricity needs gas or oil or coal or nukes.
Nukes need water.
People need food and water and electricity and transport.

The connections are endless ... we live in a House of Cards.



It will probably be something really odd that triggers a collapse ... for example, a lack of a special high tech axle grease which is needed by trucks, and which is made in very low volumes. Or a lack of special zirconium fuses needed by power stations. Or lack of a special chemical used to keep drinking water pumping stations bug free. Something small which has a large leverage effect.

[grabby]

It is virtual certainty that all these little factors will meet at once. interact at once and multiply.
Like the two old biddies at the K-mart Blue light special table fighting ofver the last hat, more than two people are going to get injured.

Peak oil and economy will squeek and groan slowly tipping with sit-ins, protesteors, arguments, but one day a dominoe effect will take out the whole western grid or brown out all the eastcoast or some such, and the pumps will QUICKLLY go dry within days.
once the hoards want to save and get their 5 gallon containers out, we will be suddenly out of oil for days at a time.this is about the time a war will begin that will leave us glowing for hundreds of years.

Peak oil is just the fuse.

it will be as sudden as a mushroom on the horizon.
You know the mushrooms will hit important oil ports... ever think of that?

Twilight, and back to basics, and most all solar panels except those in antarctica will be non functional.

And it won't matter at all what part of hubbards curve we are still located on. The lynchpin is not peak oil per see, but people.
We just don't get along.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'E')ventually, energy income will match energy expenditure.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'E')ventually, energy income will match energy expenditure.

[vision-master]

Peak Oil will only effect those without the means to purchase the stuff.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'P')eak Oil will only effect those without the means to purchase the stuff.

[vision-master]

They’d be on their own plane. Only the Lepers would be packed into one of those third world buses.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'P')eak Oil will only effect those without the means to purchase the stuff.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'T')hank you for pointing that out. I did not write clearly.

I had intended to bring out that energy income from the Sun will, ultimately, be all that we have to work with. Perhaps some novel technology will be developed - perhaps not. In a relatively short time (centuries, at most), fossil fuels will no longer be available.

[DefiledEngine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I had intended to bring out that energy income from the Sun will, ultimately, be all that we have to work with. Perhaps some novel technology will be developed - perhaps not. In a relatively short time (centuries, at most), fossil fuels will no longer be available.