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THE US Fossil Fuel Stockpiles Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Bioenergy stocks rule

Unread postby teemu » Wed 19 Apr 2006, 08:32:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '
')NTOIF.PK > Neste Oil Bioenergy > 100% up YoY
Impressive, isn't it?


This one at least is not bioenergy company, but oil refining company that refines cheap russian oil (which is currently much cheaper than WTI or Brent). The company has some biodiesel production but as far as I know it is really small part of their revenue.
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Re: Bioenergy stocks rule

Unread postby ThunderChunky » Sat 22 Apr 2006, 03:03:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') always knew you were pumping. Trick is knowing when to dump :twisted:


Don't you have anything better to do then follow lorenzo around and troll?
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Re: Bioenergy stocks rule

Unread postby shakespear1 » Sat 22 Apr 2006, 04:25:17

I have built a model portfolio of Lorenzo's stocks and will follow their adventure from a starting point of 18/4/06 with the assumption that I bought $1000 of each.

So far half did well and the other went in just the opposite direction. Overall performance so far is -0.1 %.

I did a similar thing with someones suggestions of coal stock and did well. I chose those strrongest horse after watching it and understanding its driver. That was JOYG, check it out.
Men argue, nature acts !
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"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

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Re: Bioenergy stocks rule

Unread postby lorenzo » Sat 22 Apr 2006, 09:31:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'I') have built a model portfolio of Lorenzo's stocks and will follow their adventure from a starting point of 18/4/06 with the assumption that I bought $1000 of each.

So far half did well and the other went in just the opposite direction. Overall performance so far is -0.1 %.

I did a similar thing with someones suggestions of coal stock and did well. I chose those strrongest horse after watching it and understanding its driver. That was JOYG, check it out.


It's probably too late to buy them now, unless you want to keep them for a very long period of time.
You should have bought 6 months ago. They're not going to rise the coming months (as the American driving season begins soon, and the rises in the stocks were in part due to anticipating this event); so don't buy them now; but please do track them for the coming two years.
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Re: Bioenergy stocks rule

Unread postby shakespear1 » Sat 22 Apr 2006, 09:41:46

I agree. The long run is the way to go with this. :)
Men argue, nature acts !
Voltaire

"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

Alan Greenspan
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Re: Bioenergy stocks rule

Unread postby Cynus » Mon 24 Apr 2006, 09:39:28

With the switch from MTBE to ethanol, don't you expect the ethanol companies to report much higher earnings in the near future? And won't this initiate a new wave of ethanol investments driving the stock prices higher?
One of these now am I too, a fugitive from the gods and a wanderer, at the mercy of raging Strife.
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Re: Bioenergy stocks rule

Unread postby RonMN » Mon 24 Apr 2006, 22:42:22

I've been screaming...YOU HAVE ALL THE PATENTS LOCKED TIGHT...YOU DON'T HAVE TO 'PRODUCE' THE BIODIESEL YOURSELF...

Well, here comes the investors to save the day...

Green Star USA dot COM

Friggin' Finally! (i've been holding this stock for FAR too long & it's still gonna take a couple more years...

QUOTE:
Green Star Products will provide plant engineering and consulting services during construction, on-going expansion support, and long-term oversight management on a contract basis. Green Star Products will also receive 2 1/2 % gross royalties on sales.

Initial Phase I of construction will provide for infrastructure expansion up to 60 million gallons capacity per year. Expansion will proceed from 10 million gallon capacity to the maximum infrastructure capacity by adding 5 million gallon per year capacity reaction modules in stages.

This facility could generate up to $4 million in royalties each year to GSPI at full capacity.

Phase II of the RRI program incorporates much larger production on a worldwide basis. Contractually, GSPI will participate in Phase II of RRI expansion with similar management and royalty arrangements.

GSPI is also in final negotiations with other companies to establish facilities worldwide.


This means that it is NOT an "exclusive" contract :)
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
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Oil Prices are High so why are energy stocks getting hammerd

Unread postby mefistofeles » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 15:19:47

I guess the question itself is pretty self explanatory. Why are energy stocks getting hammered while oil prices remain high?

Personally I think its the global equities sell off, although in this sort of energy environment you would think energy equities would be considered a "hot ticket".

But with various central banks increasing rates I guess its making investors nervous: flight to quality.
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Re: Oil Prices are High so why are energy stocks getting ham

Unread postby Cynus » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 15:50:07

I also suppose they see an economic slowdown ahead which will reduce demand for energy.
One of these now am I too, a fugitive from the gods and a wanderer, at the mercy of raging Strife.
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Re: Oil Prices are High so why are energy stocks getting ham

Unread postby nth » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 18:16:50

Oil demand will drop during economic recession.
Most of these oil companies are not increasing output by much. That means they have to have oil prices keep going up to justify higher stock prices.
Oil prices are kind of high. No one is going to wager ever higher prices without economic recession.
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Re: Oil Prices are High so why are energy stocks getting ham

Unread postby Mechler » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 18:53:16

Bill Sarubbi, who's an investment advisor and studies cyclic phenomena, says it's because energy stock perform best between January and May. He also has some comments on oil prices.

Here's a link to the interview
"It is certain that free societies would have no easy time in a future dark age. The rapid return to universal penury will be accomplished by violence and cruelties of a kind now forgotten." - Roberto Vacca, The Coming Dark Age
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Energy stocks getting hammered with high oil prices?

Unread postby mefistofeles » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 21:31:05

This is a repost of a topic that I put up in the peak oil discussion but was wondering why are energy stocks getting hammered with current $70.00/barrel oil prices?
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Re: Energy stocks getting hammered with high oil prices?

Unread postby Alnitaka » Tue 13 Jun 2006, 16:16:39

One would think that rises in oil prices and fuel prices would create huge profits for oil companies (and the media have documented this) and hence to rises in oil stocks. What I see instead is that high oil prices cause high gasoline and other fuel prices, which cause people to cut back on expenditures, which cause companies to have less profits, which cause their stocks to go down; it also causes inflation to go up, and then all stocks go down, including energy stocks. The threat of inflation seems to trump the higher profits for oil companies. So are energy stocks worth buying and holding?

What I also don't get is that with the threat of inflation (caused by high fuel prices), one would think that gold (an inflation hedge) would go up, but instead it is going down. Why is that?

It makes me want to pull out of ALL stocks altogether. But then inflation will outrun the interest rates on money market funds, making them not good investments to hold.

I have read Stephen Leeb's books, but I don't see what he describes happening.
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Re: Energy stocks getting hammered with high oil prices?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 13 Jun 2006, 16:40:29

The high cost of energy is likely to slow growth in the economy, this could result in less future demand for the products of the various energy companies.

It's possible that a slowing economy (a reduction of demand) would result in lower energy costs.

I know, it sounds strange, but that is the belief among the commodity brokers on Wall Street.

Gold has gotten too expensive, too fast. One major market for gold is the jewelry/investment market in third world nations. Many women in those countries use gold jewelry in the same way that Americans and Europeans use savings accounts. If gold gets too expensive, they can no longer afford to purchase these gold items and in many cases, start selling them.

This increases the supply of gold and reduces the price. I read an article about it on Slate Magazine a while back.

I suggest staying out of the market for the time being. I don't believe the correction is over yet. We might even test Dow 10,000.
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Re: Energy stocks getting hammered with high oil prices?

Unread postby dbarberic » Tue 13 Jun 2006, 16:43:33

The prices of energy stocks (e.g. Exxon) are currently based on pricing models of oil per barrel at much lower prices. Most professional investors have not caught onto the idea that oil prices will be sustained at much higher prices and have not figured that into the revenue targets and stock price targets of the major oil companies. In addition, the companies internally use much lower oil prices per barrel to estimate their future revenue forecasts that are used as guidence for Wall Street Analysts. If I remember correctly, the price was $24/bbl. I think there is some talk of moving it up to $32/bbl.

If you believe that the price of oil will be sustained much higher, then the stocks of these companies are quite undervalued and represent a great buying opportunity as their current share price does not reflect higher earnings from a higher oil prices.
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Re: Energy stocks getting hammered with high oil prices?

Unread postby oilfreeandhappy » Wed 14 Jun 2006, 10:26:17

The effect of higher oil prices on our economy is devastating. The difference now is that there doesn't seem to be any end to it. There has been no considerable decrease in oil prices to correct for all the large recent increases for almost 2 years.

I think it's overdue, but long term investors are starting to see the looming darkness.
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Re: Energy stocks getting hammered with high oil prices?

Unread postby Cynus » Thu 13 Jul 2006, 10:04:59

Don't you all think this has gotten a little out of hand? The price of oil is soaring, but the oil companies stocks are still going down. I wish I had bought the oil ETF instead of the companies themselves. Do you think everyone will jump in towards the end of the year when the promise of huge dividends becomes evident?
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Re: Energy stocks getting hammered with high oil prices?

Unread postby teemu » Thu 13 Jul 2006, 16:11:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mefistofeles', 'T')his is a repost of a topic that I put up in the peak oil discussion but was wondering why are energy stocks getting hammered with current $70.00/barrel oil prices?


A good lesson that oil prices and oil company stocks don't necessarily correlate. If you want to bet on higher oil, you should buy oil (futures/etf) and not oil companies.

Anothey way to look at this is P/E-valuations. Rising inflation will raise interest rates, so bond yields will be higher and so P/E-values of stocks will have to go lower also. I think Stephen Leeb explained this in his book.
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Re: Energy stocks getting hammered with high oil prices?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 14 Jul 2006, 00:03:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nothey way to look at this is P/E-valuations. Rising inflation will raise interest rates, so bond yields will be higher and so P/E-values of stocks will have to go lower also. I think Stephen Leeb explained this in his book.


this would apply to the multinationals but definitely not the independants where the investment community mainly looks at cash flow per share. For companies heavily involved in exploration their cash flow is reinvested with a goal toward company growth. Currently most of the independants are trading at a cash flow per share multiple about 75% of what they were last year. As someone pointed out earlier it means the investment community is expecting oil to be at $45/bbl which would generate the 6 - 7 times cash flow per share multiple.
It is very, very simple. The investment community is looking at the oil stock build and saying this makes no sense...we have more oil in storage than we did in '99 when oil was at $20. They completely ignore the fact that the demand/supply picture has changed completely.
Do any of you know any investment banker types? I do.....not the sharpest knives in the drawer but they do know how to follow the herd.
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Stock Broker Awareness of Petrocollapse

Unread postby directinfo » Wed 20 Sep 2006, 12:11:41

This post is about the coming social quake about to transform the entire world like nothing ever before.

I have often said that Peak Oil will go down as the biggest event in human history since Noah's Flood. And I have said that it is a paradox that hardly anybody noticed either one before it was too late. And I said that the big shift downwards will happen on the pin prick of public opinion because the fundamentals and the trends are already beyond the pale.

People have asked me when will that pin prick take place.

My answer, before today, was less clear. But today I say - "Very soon now, my evidence is in the newsletters of Stock Brokers!"

Thesis -

Stock Brokers get their money by watching trends. They capitalize on trends for a profit. The most profitable trends to watch are the big ones that are relatively not known.

So when popular investment newsletters from mainstream brokers like Martin Weiss started talking about Peak Oil last year, I understood that we are one step closer to awakening of Peak Oil in society. When they finish artificially depressing energy prices pre-mid-term elections, then we will see a continuation of that awakening as stock brokers give more advice, spreading their successful investment ideas and winning big in energy and commodity futures (all commodities are made with oil and gas energy). So this awareness will spread more quickly with the stock broker class involved and that's good news.

More good news - Stock brokers are talking about the obvious false flag 911 black op given to us by our terrorist government. Well, OK they aren't using that terminology yet but the newsletter I saw brought relevant issues into a sensible questioning process. Click here for the newsletter, scroll second story down...

And as most of you know by now, when you start questioning 911 authentically, you will start finding out who are the real terrorists. So this trend has been initiated and stock brokers can make a lot of money shorting the US currency and energy-intensive markets as this whole economic curtain of OZ... this wizardry of derivatives and baseless paper fascade goes bust at the seams.

What to watch next: As popular opinion begins to accept the possibility of Peak Oil and 911 false flag, then attention will go to economic fundamentals. But there are none. Zero. It is a cardboard box being propped up by paper and customer confidence and the plunge protection team and fractional reserve banking. All of these frauds are doomed to fail and fail they will on the pin prick of popular opinion. And I think the stock brokers will push popular opinion over the edge.

More good news for lovers of the truth... another VIDEO, yeah!

Alex Jones on INN discussing the new populist movement that has the elites running scared because their traditional divisions of left-right are being shattered by the truth movement. Good stuff.



Image
"The Man" is shocked!

And now this... from the unstoppable Michael Chussudovsky of the respected "Global Research" in Canada.

Hide your children, lock up your gold bars, load your guns, run for the hills... the corporations and government are planning a prison economy in North America.

Don't believe me, just think about it.

Surely, our leaders won't just roll over and let a predictable situation cause them to lose their grip on power.

Don't read this if you want to think that Peak Oil crash is just about using less electricity and driving less miles.

My prediction is out there for everyone to see regarding commodities and society especially. Petrocollapse will include a massive effort towards consolidation power even as energy deficits categorically include a wipeout of what we call the middle class in the US, leading logically from our current surveilence state to the next stage: Police State and then finally to and a new slavery economy in the US, possibly spreading throughout much of the world.

Lesson: We didn't become civilized because of our enlightened state of mind. We just found out that taxing the use of energy-slaves was more profitable than having people-slaves. That trend will reverse. And I dearly hope I am wrong about this. But I regret to say that the trends are obvious, ominous and obnoxiously onwardly progressing.

Modern slavery in North America. A prison economy. Michael Chussudovsky helps lift the curtain on that rising beast.

This is not good news. But it is a fact that North America is trending towards a fascist plutocracy. Gauging the trends is step one. Implementing strategy is the goal. Developing a sound strategy is what you might want to do very soon.

Best wishes and God Bless -Tate

=========================


Secret Banff Meeting of CEOs and the Defense Establishment: Militarization and the Deconstruction of North America

by Michel Chossudovsky
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