[Spideykid]

But it's the American consumer who makes the world economy spin fast, with out them it slows way down.

[mekrob]

Damn, I wish I had money to buy some USO and metals...I need a job.

[chakra]

I own 60 ounces of silver that I purchased at a higher price then it currently is but I am almost hopeful that commodities continue to drop.

Just a few years ago you could purchase silver at 5 dollars an ounce. It would be good for many people who are just learning about peak oil and the current state of the world for it to return there for even just a little while.

I was going to purchase silver once it dropped, but I'm not sure if a meltdown will bring silver way down to its base for so many years or somewhere in between. Once silver goes under 10 dollars an ounce I might pick a little bit up, but I'm saving my large purchases for a possible return to the 5 to 7 dollar an ounce range.

I'd gladly take a loss on 60 ounces for the opportunity to buy 500 ounces for only 2500 dollars.

[strider3700]

500 ounces for $2500, god I'd love that.

Bernanke won't shut up all week with 3 speaches scheduled. He's on his anti inflation kick at the moment and was talking about how the us consumer is doing a great job of managing their household budgets. Basically he is implying that he's going to keep on raising rates for a bit.

This is causing the meltdown in the markets/commodities and since the bond holders think he's nuts the yield curve is inverted again.

My gold is still up but only a little bit now. I'd like to see silver hit the 9's before I pick more up.

[EnergyHog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukat_Reloaded', 'W')hen I first started this thread I said that copper that week would fall close to $3, I was wrong, it would take 1 month instead.



Right on gold, right on copper and wrong on oil. I believe high oil prices are pushing copper down now. So I mean it's complex but it's definatly interesting, everyone assumed high oil means high copper because they are both commodities, but high oil prices are scaring people from copper due to fears of slower future world growth. This has played on gold somewhat as well. I didn't have this view in my orginal analysis of copper before, I believed all commodites would tank, I didn't think all but one commodity would tank being oil, and then that oils high price would then put further price pressures on the other commodities, you need a brain the size of the moon to calculate everything and how they will play out together. No matter how smart you think you are, it's not match for the probabilites of the universe so allways invest conservativly because if you don't you run the risk of being wiped out instead of just a 10% loss which you can easily recover from.

Right now, play it safe, play it conservativly and over the long run you'll be a winner.

[Chaparral]

The grains are actually up from their overnight lows. Nat gas is also up slightly. I think a few long only funds had to liquidate their holdings in energy to meet the margin calls in the metals. We could see crude and unleaded rise as fast as they fell by tomorrow.

There is talk that the funds are nearly out of their long positons in the precious metals now. If that is the case, we could see things slowly start rising.

[greenworm]

Yeah, Buffet forecast the demise(there is a thread devoted to this lying around somewhere, give her a search), the bumbling fedspeak did the rest.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

EnergyHog, it was market sediment, everyone became overly bullish. You can see the responses of people right at the start of this thread. I read an artical saying that 18 out of 23 traders recommended to buy gold (at over $700), remarks that trading in commodites highly fassionable and traders are all jumping in. All the market analyists quickly dropped their constant stance that the average price of gold would be $525-$550 for 2006 and said gold $1000. Where we go from here I don't know, alot of people probably got burn't and still the analyists are still staying higher prices, alot of the burn't people won't touch gold again, we may not reach the bottom until these guys say gold is going down, I mean these tv/celebrity analyists are almost allways dead wrong and it's almost a sure bet to do the opposite.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

[/quote]There is talk that the funds are nearly out of their long positons[quote]

I would still be very careful, I don't know how less longs in the market means rising prices, infact it is bearish, today we are already over $40 down in gold, don't rule out below $500 either.

[grabby]

Um China is still sucking up metals!
try and buy metals themselves!
you cant without spending a lot more money this years.
Your getting the stock prices of the metals company mixed up with metals themselves.
The stock price of a metlals company could go to zero today and they could go bankrupt while the metals themselves would go up stocks is not equivalent to the product!

What is happening is Ruska adn Chiners is selling their stocks and taking their money to buy more metals while their prices are OVERINFLATED and BOGUS in the market.
yes the market will crash big big time, baybe not this year but as they sell off their overseas money implants in the market and taking the cash to buy REAL THINGS (copper iron gold silver wood frito bags etx.


If you have too much money, just pay off your house loan.
Stilll too much? Pay off all debts.
Still too much? give it to charity.
money will be paper pretty soon.
Dont buy houses till they get cheap..

[smiley]

This reminds me of another thread one week back about NYMEX eliminating price fluctuation limits on their metal contracts per june 5th.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cynus', ' ')This is one of those announcements, like the M3 reporting announcment, that only makes sense if something very, very funny is going on. If I had a little more tin foil in my hat, I would say that this means that the PTB are going to crash the market for PMs in order to eliminate their shorts, then scoop up all remaining gold and silver in storage.

[mefistofeles]

Commodities are alot like women. If you deeply involved they can either make your lives marginally better or truely miserable.

Oil has been doing quite now and has only recently dipped below $70.00 and LNG has been very stable. In fact if I were a commodities trader the stable trading range of LNG makes that the hot play.

Short at $6.30 and go long below $6.00 . Playing the LNG market seems to be the best play in town

You also have to remember that volatility is a two way street. If prices can go up fast they also have the potential to go down fast.

Sometimes we only become fixated on one aspect of volatility: the price drop or the increase. But we have to remember the two are interlinked.

You can also take bets on the way down too via short funds,even down markets represent a tremendous oppurtunity if played properly. Just make sure you're on the right side of the trade when all is said and done.

However in the long run I think Mr. Helicopter Money Bernake won't disappoint us. He's merely looking for a reason to stop the rate increases.

[Chaparral]

Well, the grains finally edged a bit lower but the move was not that dramatic. WRT the funds getting out, we may see physical buying take up some slack but like Ducat, I have visions of $490 gold in my head right now. Sure wished I had shorted it today!

[chrispi]

I sense a buying opportunity here...

[airstrip1]

As Keynes said - " The market can be irrational for a lot longer than you can remain solvent". Anyone who speculated in commodities with borrowed money is now at risk of getting seriously burnt. At least those who bought with their own cash can ride it out and wait for the tide to turn.

[Monk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukat_Reloaded', 'I') don't know how less longs in the market means rising prices, infact it is bearish, today we are already over $40 down in gold, don't rule out below $500 either.

[Heineken]

What I want to know is why gold is going down when inflation is clearly heating up---Bernanke's quacking about interest rates aside.

[EnergyHog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukat_Reloaded', 'E')nergyHog, it was market sediment, everyone became overly bullish. You can see the responses of people right at the start of this thread. I read an artical saying that 18 out of 23 traders recommended to buy gold (at over $700), remarks that trading in commodites highly fassionable and traders are all jumping in. All the market analyists quickly dropped their constant stance that the average price of gold would be $525-$550 for 2006 and said gold $1000. Where we go from here I don't know, alot of people probably got burn't and still the analyists are still staying higher prices, alot of the burn't people won't touch gold again, we may not reach the bottom until these guys say gold is going down, I mean these tv/celebrity analyists are almost allways dead wrong and it's almost a sure bet to do the opposite.

[grabby]

Because there are an incresing amount of people who want to sell and a decreasing amount of people who want to buy

For reasons all differenet to each person, I am sure.
That is what stocks are about, (and Gold prices)

If there are people who think it is worth 700 today, they buy it, Another day they read an article on something else and decide they rather sell the gold.

[Backtosteam]

But where is the money going? Are people just sitting out for a while holding paper currency? It doesn't seem to be going into the stock market and I'm pretty sure it's not going into real estate. What's left? That's why I'm still bullish on metals. Especially with inflation creeping up. The FED is stuck too...they really can't raise rates any significant amount with causing havoc with half of American consumers.