[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

Luther, while I agree the US should get out of the ME, how on Earth could there be peace there with Isreal still about.

[IslandCrow]

Half-life decay???? I would say not at first. Despite all the problems in the system, I think that there is enough strength in it to prevent the sudden death.........at least at first.

My best guess is that the economic path down will be a bit like the down side of a 'bell-curve'* with a slow decline at first, but one that gathers pace and falls sharply, followed by a curving out at the bottom. I think we will see an initial 'gradual' decline in economic activity - you know like GM laying off workers, or the housing market spluttering along for a while. This will increase the downward pressure on the economy. The economy will be able to withstand the pressure for a while (and may be more robust than most of us think). Some of the pressure would be let off by people conserving etc**, but I am sure that this will not be enough and the overall pressure will grow. Then BANG. At this point then we might see a very steep slide---possibly the half-life secenario will be a good case, OR then we will see the cliff/fall/collapse that many predict.

I am clueless as to how much pressure the economy can stand, but where I am I am doing as much as I can to conserve/promote effeciency, so letting off some of the pressure. This translates to: any money I save by not spending it on energy (where most of the money goes outside the country) can be spent on other things that might provide more local jobs. If enough of us do that we might delay the point of explosion by a little bit...and the longer we work on conservation and more efficient systems the greater the chance we have of coming out of a crash damaged and bruised but still alive. [At least give me time to get the money together to replace the oil heating I have in the property I have just bought...and to pay off more of the mortgage ]


* Note: the down side is not likely to be a mirror image of the up side, but the image does depict the shape I want to describe. My guess is the down side will be more compressed than the up side.
** Note: One paper I read from an oil company, stated that energy efficency has been increasing by about 1% a year. This will "let off some of the steam", but with a world population increase of over that rate, it is clear that technological improvements have not let off enough steam, so pressure on energy resources is still building up.

[MicroHydro]

I am amazed at how many people on this board think US economic decline is recent or even in the future. The absolute peak of US prosperity was circa 1970 - 1973 before the first oil embargo. Average worker wage has been declining ever since. At that time Chrysler auto workers on the assembly line made $17/hr. With overtime, many auto workers earned over $50,000 per year. In buying power, this exceeds $200,000 per year today. Average middle class folks bought new cars every 3 years (with cash) just to stay in style and took long vacations. You could even live alone in a nice apartment in a good neighborhood on minimum wage - I did it. If you couldn't be bothered to work, a hour of creative panhandling would be enough to buy food, gas, and dope to go to the next concert or whatever.

The exponential decay of the US economy has been going on for over 32 years. Yet people have been brainwashed into thinking the dotcom bubble was the height of prosperity! I suspect the future will be similar. Prices ever higher, wages not keeping up, more people homeless or in prisons - yet those still working will think things are fine because the TV says so.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'T')he absolute peak of US prosperity was circa 1970 - 1973 before the first oil embargo.

[crapattack]

MicroHydro I agree with you on this one.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The exponential decay of the US economy has been going on for over 32 years. Yet people have been brainwashed into thinking the dotcom bubble was the height of prosperity! I suspect the future will be similar. Prices ever higher, wages not keeping up, more people homeless or in prisons - yet those still working will think things are fine because the TV says so.

[IslandCrow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'I') am amazed at how many people on this board think US economic decline is recent or even in the future. .... Average middle class folks bought new cars every 3 years (with cash) just to stay in style and took long vacations. You could even live alone in a nice apartment in a good neighborhood on minimum wage ...

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he absolute peak of US prosperity was circa 1970 - 1973 before the first oil embargo.

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lutherquick', 'l')inlithgowoil

Honestly, once peakoil makes the American militatry industrail complex back off, back into her corner, yup there will be peace... it will not be peace as American knows it (cheap energy, suv, big homes in US), it will be peace in the ME... Hamas is democracy, more than 75% of Iraqis hate America, that's DEMOCRACY...

As long as America has a little oil to keep eyeing all that OIL in the ME, yup, it will be war... But once America can't project her miltary, then the world will be peaceful...

So linlithgowoil, don't miss understand me, I don't see doom, I see prosperity and peace, just NOT in the US.

Everything the US has been doing is double standard, hypocritical and completey distored with fairy tales, delsuions, and hallucinations...

There are no wmd, it's not about war on Terror, Saddam didn't do 9/11, Enron ain't profitable, Tyco was only doing the same as Yukos, the dollar ins't wealth, and Bush is a nut job that only got my first vote but not my second. I as a republican was aloyal, and have no give up on this jig, it's over... The market will will because the market overcomes the human factor or planning... the market is nature...

And ME will have peace when you cut out the cancer called America. Remove this American factor in the equation and the ME would be a great place.

PO is a global issue and if America fell into a depression PO will be put to sleep for a short 15 years... but America has proven how desperate a nation can get.

[firestarter]

Article

[lutherquick]

It isn't just oil profits leaving the US/$

Now since Russia has finally started her own oil Bourse, and couple that with the shift of foreign reserves. There is coming even a greater drop in the US dollar. What will happen next is that many trans national companies will find it nearly impossible to make anything in America. Energy prices will double and triple once again because those American companies must buy energy while the dollar tanks.

To play it safe, big companies will move to places like Russia because energy will be cheaper there. Many of those companies will also sell some of their products and services in Ruble in order to pay for their energy. Over time, they will realize, they might as well stick with Rubles long term.

But if you think about it, the standard joke is that the typical Russian makes $100 per month, right? So how is America so competitive? Well, America simply isn't competitive, it appears competitive but it's a delusion driven by hegemony. Why bother using workers in America for $2000-$5000 per month, when you can have in Russia cheap energy, free health care (for your employees), free university, no need for automobiles, lower taxes and competitive wages.

In parallel to the multi-nationals (like GM and VW announcing factories in Russia) you will also see small and medium sized companies shifting INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY assets towards places like Russia. Reason is, why should any US software company sell in dollars ? Why not just move the property rights to Russia, and market from there as the dollar tanks harder and harder.

Some may say if the dollar crashes, then the US will be competative again, I say BS... There will be no energy to drivre that recovery... how will it be paid for?

You think the president of Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was able to suck $28 billion dollars out of Russia so fast? Wait as peak oil fills Russian coffers, you will see wealth move faster than "Eel shit". This time, wealth returns to Russia driven by market forces and good business sense, not like it left by corruption.

To be fair, Russia will have a problem with Dutch disease, however, many lessons were learned and much can be done to mitigate that problem. To that end, a little capital flight will be welcomed by the Russian federation. The removal of some capital will control inflation, keep the Ruble appreciation slower, and so forth. I think the Russian government will entice the Russian population to go and visit cheap tourist destinations like the US, and maybe help the poor Americans by buying up US property (thus supporting US real-estate)...

All in all, if you have energy you will rule. Like nature, there will be more life and economic activity nearest energy.

Now I ask, how is Nato going to expand?

[Spideykid]

LOL

Ask yourself why is it only now that it seams Russia might be on the road to successful economic economy?

The same things that hampered Russia before are still in place.

[Lighthouse]

The USA are a big bubble.

But she is a big bubble with a very thick and solid skin.

Everyone including Russia and China is still supporting the thick skin of the bubble, because everyone is afraid that if it burst it will burst with a big bang!

[lutherquick]

Lighthouse,

You live in a fairy tale....

Each 5 years China makes 300 million middle class people to consume her own goods... a market sort of say...

And guess what? The Chinese haved 1 trillion, the US, only 150 billion...

Nobosy gives a flying fvck if the US crashes... in fact, right after, oil will be cheap for a short while...

America will be missed like a case of gagarine...

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lutherquick', 'L')ighthouse,

You live in a fairy tale....

[pea-jay]

Russia also has another advantage, not mentioned here. That is it has an actual shrinking population base. While from an economic standpoint, this is not good, from a resource base, this is excellent. Less people, less impact. Their close and tightly arranged settlement patterns are navicable without a vehicle. Contrast that to the US which is rapidly growing with few transportaion options.

[lutherquick]

pea-jay,

Well, so many break my ass because Russia doesn't grow like cancer... But relative to cancer, growth is a good thing...

Demographics are a problem in Russia, but as long as they have a strong leader, like Putin or the next Putin, then if they simple stop the decline, yet avoid growth, just hold the population, then YES, you are right, it's a major big time advantage for Russia...

What the Russian gov realy must do is slow down on exports of energy and comodities, as the rest of the world "enjoys" it's exponential growth it can choke on it's self while Russia profits from western exponential growth... it's the Russian nukes that will keep America on the other side of the fence.

[Carlhole]

Davos Forum Confirms Powershift Away from US

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HuffPo', 'T')his year's theme at the World Economic Forum annual meeting -- "the shifting power equation"-- confirms the view of the global elite gathering in Davos, Switzerland that power is draining away from the United States to multiple centers as countries from Brazil to China moved beyond "emerging" markets to establish themselves as major players on the world scene...

[Graeme]

Why the Economy Needs Tax Reform

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ver the next four years, tax reform, done right, could be a cure for much of what ails the economy. Higher taxes, raised progressively, could encourage growth by helping to pay for long-neglected public investment in education, infrastructure and basic research. More revenue would also reduce budget deficits, helping to put the nation’s finances on a stable path. Greater progressivity would reduce rising income inequality, and with it, inequality of opportunity that is both an economic and social scourge.

The big obstacle to comprehensive tax reform is the persistent Republican myth that spending cuts alone can achieve economic and budget goals. That notion was soundly rejected by voters during the election. Yet it still has adherents among many Republicans, which will make it that much harder for Congress to grapple with the bigger and more complex issue at the heart of tax reform: how to pay for government in the 21st century.



With that in mind, Mr. Obama would be wise to instruct the Treasury Department to start work on tax reform now, exploring carbon taxes, both to raise revenue and to protect the environment; a value-added tax, coupled with provisions to protect lower-income taxpayers from higher prices, to tax consumption and encourage saving; and a financial transactions tax, to ensure that the financial sector, whose profits have substantially outpaced those of nonfinancial corporations, pay a fair share.

[Revi]

The US economy is in trouble, and this little Kabuki theater of the sequester last week didn't help out us middle class people at all. I am amazed at how they can cut all that money and have almost nobody freaking out. We got a payroll tax hike and now the sequester. Funny how those at the top took no pay cut, but all of us have to suck it up. I almost think that Obama and Beynor had this in mind and worked out a deal, then pointed fingers at the other side. Funny how the tax increases and furlough days seem to affect only us working people.