[Colorado-Valley]

I've been here a couple of years now, and peak oil used to be so simple: Ghawar would go into depletion, and then we'd all die.

Or something like that ...

Now I feel like I have to be an expert not only oil depletion, but I must have a background in geopolitical strategies, macro-economics, how the hedge funds and derivatives markets work (or don't), a history of imperialism, tactics of the Bolivarian Revolution, the M3 money supply, the neoconservative cabal, an understanding of hurricane dynamics, ecological collapse, the price of nitrogen fertilizer, etc., etc., etc.

It seems like I've learned more here in two years than I did in 12 years of formal education.

I guess this is good ... but sometimes I feel like I really need to take the summer off from trying to monitor all this. And I would take the summer off, but now I'm afraid I'll miss the classic "tipping point" that we've spent countless hours discussing and watching for.

On the other hand, I do need some time to tend to my survival garden ...

Do you guys ever feel this way? How do you deal with it?

[OilsNotWell]

I know what you mean.

But, like Mr. Miyagi said: "Balance, Daniel-san, balance."

To maintain harmony takes balance. Balance with yourself, others, and the world.

It's precisely because of a lack of balance that we are in the predicament we are in right now. Unsustainable population growth based upon depleting input sources. A lack of balance.

Do whatever you need to do to maintain that balance within yourself. I've taken a few breaks. Like you, I consider this additional advanced study courses and what is almost never taught in college or other schools.

Take time to garden, check in a bit less. Take time to think, prepare, plan, and live. If I knew an ICBM was heeded my way, I wouldn't spend my remaining time under a desk. I might stare at a beautiful flower, or call up a loved one, if that was possible.

Certainly things are not that extreme (yet!). If and when things REALLY start to pick up, one web site or two will not be needed to notice, as it will be everywhere in every media you look.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'I')f and when things REALLY start to pick up, one web site or two will not be needed to notice, as it will be everywhere in every media you look.

[pea-jay]

At first I thought things would go *poof* and we would be in a world of hurt. Now I am inclined to think we could slide for a few years, meaning decreasing expectations, increased misery but otherwise functional economies as oil/gas production bounces around and slides abit. Barring a catestrophic cut-off, I think the world could destroy quite abit of superfoulus demand before it would begin to bite.

I think a crash is still out there. I don't think its guarenteed to occur right away. (said hopefully)

[Gazzatrone]

I tried simplifying things but that ended up going down the complicated route. And maybe that is the point about Peak Oil......it simply can't be simplified for the simple reason Oil affects everything we do in our lives.

But I'm with you every step of the way in thinking you need a Phd in advanced geology, geo-political history, economics etc. No wonder people get turned off by the idea that their World is heading for catastrophic implosion. to much information is muddying the waters.

I've come to the conclusion that 99.9% of the population are Lab mice content to eat the bit of cheese for servicing the state and corporation, conditioned into a mindset of pressing the button to be fed, and lacking the basic ability to question

A: Where the cheese comes from
B: Will it run out.

Only when it finally runs out will people start to panic. It won't be Peak Oil people will be talking about but "Point Oil" (i'm claiming this as new terminology hehe) the moment where the reality hits home.
or in your case, the moment where all statistics, data and analysis become historical and not theoretical.

Yes Peak Oil used to be simple, and in the very near future will be simple againbut for all the wrong reasons.

[Gazzatrone]

edited for double posting

New Message

THE END IS NIGH!

[brentcrude]

I used to think Peak Oil would arrive with a bang - $300 oil, leading to a crippling depression, blackouts, riots and the breakdown of society - the Mad Max scenario - albeit played out over a number of years.

I still think this might happen, but initially not in the rich countries of the world.

As we start to peak I think rather than $300 oil spikes, oil prices will just slowly spiral upwards - first $80, then $90 then the scary $100. And to most peoples surprise, prices will then keep on-going upwards as we start to slide down the far side of the Hubberts curve.

In the early stages, its the poor countries of the world that will really suffer. I think we can already see this starting to happen in Africa with oil at $70. As the oil price climbs inexorably, more poor countries will be thrown overboard from the energy lifeboat. The richer countries will simply be able to outbid them.

For the rest of us, there will be recession, inflation will catch hold, people will start to lose their jobs and homes. Our way of life will start to change, end of cheap air travel, more car sharing, food grown locally instead of being flown from the other side of the world.

And as the rich countries powerdown, they can start to tackle the huge amount of energy wasted. Cutting out waste could easily save 10/20% and new technologies could help save more. The Mad Max scenario will at least be delayed.

Of course in time, we will run out of poor countries to outbid and the rich countries will start trying to outbid each other. Maybe its 10 years after the peak, maybe longer - but inevitably we will share the same fate.

[azreal60]

For a second post Brentcrude that's suprisingly well informed. You sure you haven't posted here before? =)

I totally agree, I think the slide will be longer, that doesn't mean it won't hurt anyless. It's just a matter of what locality is getting the hurt. That's why I'm worried, because the people who are going to end up hurting the most are going to be the one's who take the longest to change. And they will likely be where I live.. *Sigh*

[ohanian]

peak oil is simple.


By 2040 the global annual production of oil will be less than what it is today. Simple. It's only the fine details that are complicated.

[frankthetank]

I just keep going about my regular life, with a few steps added in to assure that i'm on top of current events. Its tough trying to lead a double life of sorts (most people, when PO is brought up, start giving me odd looks!). I still think PO starts with economic crash (the dollar?the market?).

I have always been a more forward looking thinker. I'm constantly trying to vision what 2020 will look like or even 2040, considering i might be alive through those years. Its scary! PO is simple, its the events that unfold before and after that aren't. I think waking up and reading the "PO is here, we're doomed" headline in major newspaper is probably never going to happen. The powers that be, i would think, will use coverups until we're far beyond the peak.

[Ancien_Opus]

Richard Heinberg says. "Peak oil isn't a hypothesis. It's an observation. We're writing history, not predictions."

The effects on the economy, society and political stability are the things which are confounding. Currently it looks as though the decision to ration by price adjustment is the path of least resistance. Notice the
subsidized prices drying up and some countries dropping out competely (Niceragua, Thailand, Indonesia). The suffering and crumbling at the edges is very real.

The resistance to change in direction is almost Newtonian. Our
society would rather stage a gold rush to unconventional sources than
mitigate through conservation. James Kunstler had good reason
to call it, "The Long Emergency".

[SoothSayer]

I still think this might happen, but initially not in the rich countries of the world.

Thta model works fine - as long as nothing happens to disrupt it.

Throw in a very cold winter, or a big storm, or political conflict then almsot ANY area can sufer a Peak Oil event, for a few weeks at least.

With so little free supply capacity, the whole system is VERY, VERY susceptible to disturbances.

[Zardoz]

Peak Oil is not simple.

It is diabolically, fiendishly, unfathomably complex. There are what amounts to an infinite number of factors, all inter-related, and they'll work together in ways that we can't possibly understand.

"Planning for the future" seems a bit pointless because nobody has the first clue as to how all this is going to play out. Nobody knows when anything will start, or what the magnitude of the effects will really be, or how we will react and respond to the changes.

We're not about to "slam into a wall". That's a dense, thick fogbank just ahead of us. We don't know what awaits us in the fog, and once we're in it, we'll be groping around, feeling our way, desperately trying to orient ourselves in a world we won't understand.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow I feel like I have to be an expert not only oil depletion, but I must have a background in geopolitical strategies, macro-economics, how the hedge funds and derivatives markets work (or don't), a history of imperialism, tactics of the Bolivarian Revolution, the M3 money supply, the neoconservative cabal, an understanding of hurricane dynamics, ecological collapse, the price of nitrogen fertilizer, etc., etc., etc.

[SoothSayer]

We don't know what awaits us in the fog,

Perhaps not - but don't expect it to be red wine & chocolate.

More likely some sharp stones and then some sort of wall.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', '
')It seems like I've learned more here in two years than I did in 12 years of formal education.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')After 2 years I usually wind up posting one long, opinionated, rambling rant (like this) per day and along with a snide comment or two to PMS or spec

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'b')ut why, Pops, why?

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'b')ut why, Pops, why?

[Pops]

Naw!

Cause my wife smacks me and tells me to shut up when I do that to her.