[virgincrude]

For a few weeks now I’ve been trying to make sense of all the information I’ve been gleaning, trying to figure out if it’s going to be ten years from now, 30 years, or maybe last November, and I just want to share this with you. See what you think. Like everybody on this site, I need to look in to my future, if only to feel a little bit prepared. At first, I thought, nah, it’s a while a way yet, but definitely soon. Then I gradually saw what I didn’t want to and I join those who say we are at Peak now. It’s not news anymore, it’s not a prediction we’re waiting to have confirmed, it’s now. I haven’t read Kunstler, but I can see and feel a long emergency starting. Officially it will never be announced, what would be the point in that anyway? and unfortunately nothing serious will be done about it. We are all in denial, and suspended like Wylie Coyote in mid air before beginning the plunge to the bottom of the crater.

Here’s what I’ve gathered and what has convinced me:
Cantarell, Mexico’s biggest oil field is officially in decline, a decline rate of approx 2% per year in production will naturally affect prices and supplies, its principal consumer market being the USA.

Burghan, Kuwait’s largest oil field, officially began decline in November 2005. A 2% decline rate seems to be the norm.

Saudi Arabia also officially announced it’s largest fields are in decline, a rate of 8% which is offset by various technological tweaks to result in, once again, a steady 2% decline rate.

Opec itself has not increased production in the past two years, despite much talk of an increase in reserves. The Opec countries are in all practical terms, now in decline.

Russia is expected to begin decline soon, if not already now.
Russia has enough gas to supply the area of Europe it already supplies, and remain buoyant in this market, providing demand does not increase, through the next 50 years or so. In geo political terms, we’ll all be paying more attention to Russia and the ex-Soviet block, just like in the good old Cold War days.

World oil production has been stuck at 85-86 billion barrels a day for the past two years, which means that despite the much talked about growing economies of Asia and their thirst for crude, the world can produce no more than this. We are at Peak production.

These days, reports speak of ‘hopes’ and ‘plans’ for other oil sources to offset the decline by ‘boosting rates’ at other oil fields which have not yet begun their decline. None of this will support expected demand growth, but will simply offset the decline, making it last longer, and increasing our period of denial. Projected demand growth simply can not be supported, hyped reports of big oil finds, non-conventional sources, deep water sources, untapped reserves in Africa and Iraq, can not replace or make up for what the world’s oil producing countries are running out of.

Officially, the price of a barrel of oil is expected to be at or very near $100 by the end of 2006/start of 2007. In the UK, according to the dti,
oil production was down 11% in 2004 as old fields continued their decline, yet transport, and domestic consumption rose by nearly 2%, gas production was down 8.5%.

Coal is increasing, both in use and demand, we are not at peak coal yet, however, burning coal is the biggest CO2 contributor, something we can’t afford to allow to continue as the planet shows signs of severe and probably irreversible damage.

The way I interpret it (I like to think of myself as a ‘well informed optimist’, i.e. a pessimist) the ‘world economy’ is showing faint signs of improvement before beginning the bumpy and painful demise into inflation, recession and chaotic collapse. Everything, everywhere is going to get more expensive, all consumer goods, including all food and water, and nobody’s salary is going to keep up with it. Air travel prices will rise accordingly, but we’ll keep on going until the airlines fold.

For me personally, it means having the rug pulled out from under my feet, with a four year old daughter who’s future is entirely unpredictable. What about education, what for and where? No school curriculum in the world is preparing kids for a life with no employment as we know it, with no use for university degrees. I don’t have skills in basket weaving or food preserving to pass on to her. I can see an old age filled with learning such things, as what are considered common goods today, become scarce and too expensive. And what’s the big deal about being in debt? Does anybody seriously believe the USA will ever actually pay off its debts? Of course not. So why should anybody else worry? We’re all waiting with baited breath for America’s currency to collapse but this won’t be a bang, but a whimper that some may not even notice. The after effects are all going to be uncomfy, depressing, and difficult to deal with emotionally. For all of us over the age of say, 18, it’s going to be a very strange time as we have to make the transition from feeling secure about our future, let alone daily life, to improvising. Unless, of course, you just go into denial and close the doors both behind and in front of you. Wish I could.

The way I see it, there’s no point stocking up on tins of food or bottles of water because the decline is going to be rather long. I feel that by the time reserves become necessary, they’ll be passed their sell by date. And by the time I need to stock up, so will everybody else, and money will be tight and inflated. But it’s really pressing now to spend my money on solar and wind power rather than home decoration.

It’s just odd, things are going to continue as though no emergency were at hand, I’ll still buy stuff off the internet, still use the car uneccesarily for errands like recycling the newspaper. I’ll still buy the newspaper and the news will still be the same … so what are we all waiting for? Peak is now, it’s happened/happening and we’re all still alive and driving off a cliff ….

[Jack]

Nice analysis, Virgincrude. I came to the same conclusions, hence the same vision of the future.

Welcome to Peak Oil.

[Doly]

I agree with you 100%.

My move has been getting in touch with local people that are peak oil aware, and I think it has been the best thing to do. But I can see how even most of us peakoilers have so much inertia from our previous life, that we keep doing things we know don't make a lot of sense.

I guess all one can do is keep trying to waste as little as we can manage, keep learning, and be ready. The future will tell if it was enough.

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I') agree with you 100%.

My move has been getting in touch with local people that are peak oil aware, and I think it has been the best thing to do. But I can see how even most of us peakoilers have so much inertia from our previous life, that we keep doing things we know don't make a lot of sense.

I guess all one can do is keep trying to waste as little as we can manage, keep learning, and be ready. The future will tell if it was enough.

[jeezlouise]

I am in the same "this-civilization-is-screwed" camp as you and a lot of others... those declines are the biggest problem, and IMHO your 2% figures are a little conservative, (I've heard up to 10% for Cantarell (which Pemex managed to pull 64% of its URR before it peaked, indicating a sharp decline ahead) and 5 to 10% for Burgan)... the projects coming online in Saudi Arabia are, according to an Aramco employee, "hopefully" going to slow that 8% to 2%... it's time to stop wishing and hoping that somehow this will all work itself out. Hope for the best, plan for the worst, I always say.

What you have on your side, Virgincrude, is knowledge of these facts and a still relatively stable society from which to plan a course of action out of said society once it becomes unlivable. It seems like, based on your post, you A) Just found out about PO maybe a couple of months ago, and B) the problem is so overwhelming you are on the verge of giving up and letting this whole thing just wash over you.

Steel yourself!! You weren't born to die in a crumbling empire, and neither was your daughter. Stocking up on food and water is a good idea, but not because of PO. Bird flu or any other immediate natural disaster will demand it. Keep a one-month supply of everything you can think of (within reason and budget). PO preparedness is more about long-term survival skills. Got a backyard that gets any decent sun? Pick up some heirloom seeds and get diggin'! I don't know if you have access to any land in a remote location but I would look into it, or maybe join up with an existing farm collective (part-time even) that has the same knowledge you do. Find out about the Biointensive method of growing.

As far as skills, I HIGHLY reccomend When Technology Fails by Matthew Stein. It's a virtual encyclopedia of low-tech living and has outside reading suggestions for every subject brought up in the book. It's a great jumping-off point.

I don't think of the post-peak slide coming up as the end of humanity (hopefully not) but as a sort of very difficult maturation period of human society, in the physical as well as spiritual sense. It's no reason to throw your hands up and say "well there's nothing I can do"... it's true that there is nothing we as individuals can do to stop the effects of PO but we CAN change ourselves in response to it. It all starts in your head, with your attitude. I have a 2-year old daughter myself and I don't necessarily expect her to be able to go to school by the time she's old enough. I will teach her through my own actions and I am absolutely bound and determined to protect her from all this as much as I can.

Don't despair. We are the first generation to begin building the new world, hopefully a sane and just one this time around. Personally, I find that very exciting.

[Heineken]

I see the "analysis" as flawed. Virgincrude seems to have come to the conclusion that, although "it" (PO) is at hand, it will be possible for him (or her) to avoid any actual, personal pain. Life will go on as usual, a little more crimped and costly perhaps, but pretty much the same ol' routine. It's basically the "what me worry" attitude to which the human mind naturally clings.

Do read "The Long Emergency," Virgincrude---and the many, many other books on the subject now available. Perhaps as you learn more you'll decide there is the potential for an emergency both real and now. As someone who sat in the gas lines in the 1970s and saw the price of canned peaches marked up another dime every time I went to the grocery store, I can tell you that the pain can affect you personally.

[SHiFTY]

We won't know until 5-10 years after the event IMHO. Too much geopolitics and financial 'dark matter' driving up prices, and not enough info on reserves/depletion rates/discovery rates.

Don't panic just yet. In fact I would suggest a world trip, flying to some exotic places while it is still dirt cheap. Also stocking up on useful items, like quality tools, bicycles and things like that.

I think it will be a long emergency that won't start for another 5-10 years or so, and even then it might not be that bad initially. Unless of course the Mideast explodes into war (again).

However, peak oil combined with climate change, ecocide, and human overpopulation may make this a pretty bad century later on.

[SoothSayer]

The 10 years, 20 years, 30 years arguments are crap.

Several countries are in trouble and more will soon be.

The UK may have big problems in as soon as 3 or 4 years.

The sudden loss of North Sea oil and gas converts the UK from an exporter of (cheap) fuel to an importer of (expensive) fuel.

We no longer actually MAKE anything, so our future exports will be limted to services.

However our service exports (insurance etc) are dropping 2% a year.

Just before we found oil & gas the UK was plummetting towards being a 3rd world country.

The North Sea oil & gas finds have simply postponed the evil day.

How will we pay for the expensive imports without anything to sell?

Country by country will fall off the economic radar over the next years.

[Madpaddy]

I used to feel like the guy on Easter Island (there must have been one) who kept telling his peers - "For f..ks sake, don't keep cutting down the trees".

Now, my attitude is that society won't and actually can't save itself due to the autodestruct mechanism built into an economic system based on infinite growth using finite resources. In maths I learned that a positive number multiplied by a negative number gave a negative number every time.

I'm going to France for a 2 week holiday in July and a skiing holiday in Bulgaria for Christmas. I've never been skiing before and I never will again unless the worst predictions about the gulf stream slowdown come to pass in Ireland. I had to do a lot of soul searching before agreeing to this - but the entire extended family is going so I'm viewing it as kind of a last supper. I won't be suprised if global events overtake these plans and this Christmas holiday is scrapped anyway.

I strongly believe that the whole collapse thing is going to me more a house of cards event than a long drawn out decline. The efforts being made towards renewable energy and sustainability in my country are pathetic at best and criminal misleading of the masses at worst.

Take the holiday, the hot air balloon flight or whatever it is you want to do and can afford while you are able.

[julianj]

Hard to shake that "Party on the Titanic" feeling, isn't it MadPaddy?

I've been meaning to do one of those Drive a Racing Car for a day things......(I don't have a car, and rarely drive nowadays) so I think I can be forgiven being a petrolhead for one day.

But my spare money has been channeled into other things....ie preparations.

[Madpaddy]

Catch 22 for me, I have done what I can with spare money. Installed the solar hot water, double glazing etc. To do the solar pV and wind will involve borrowing. The meagre €3,000 that my holidays are costing the family won't go far for a PV system especially with no grants.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'T')he 10 years, 20 years, 30 years arguments are crap.

Several countries are in trouble and more will soon be.

The UK may have big problems in as soon as 3 or 4 years.

The sudden loss of North Sea oil and gas converts the UK from an exporter of (cheap) fuel to an importer of (expensive) fuel.

We no longer actually MAKE anything, so our future exports will be limted to services.

However our service exports (insurance etc) are dropping 2% a year.

Just before we found oil & gas the UK was plummetting towards being a 3rd world country.

The North Sea oil & gas finds have simply postponed the evil day.

How will we pay for the expensive imports without anything to sell?

Country by country will fall off the economic radar over the next years.

[brentcrude]

I posted a comment on TOD today pretty much saying the same thing - that the peak is here or imminent - listing the same reasons.

For the record I added a probable Iraq break-up, signs that Venezuela can't meet production quotas and the Iranian situation as additional reasons as to why we are about to hit the perfect peak oil storm.

I discovered PO last October after Katrina. After being persuaded it is inevitable, I've slowly dropped the horizon from within a decade to within a few years, to within a few months.

For some the timing doesn't matter, but for me it does. 10 years is enough time to prepare, 10 months isn't. All I hope is that the initial powerdown unwinds sufficiently slowly to give me a chance. Our awareness at least gives us the ability to react more quickly than the masses who will be in a state of denial.

Is it worth trying to prepare - will the house of cards collapse - I have no idea. But I feel I have to try for my family's sake - otherwise it would have been better to remain in blissful ignorance.

[Gazzatrone]

Virgincrude, though commendable your optimism is about Peak Oil, you seem to be ignorant of how much Oil affects every part of your life.

At present the World is going about its daily business as usual. My guess is that probably 3% of the World's population is truely aware of the ramifications of a Global Energy Crisis will be.

Think of how oil affects every part of your life and then ask yourself whether or not we'll be OK.

Here is a simple scenario for you.

Remember that 90% of Global transportation is powered by Oil

Ask yourself at what point in the process of delivering food does the system breakdown when you consider how food gets from Farm to Factory to Store to Customer.

Also remeber the other uses Oil services at the starting point of Farm.

i.e Fertilisers and Pesticides.

Remember that if it not for Fertilisers the ability to grow crops on already over farmed ground would not be possible.

When you've figured this out you'll realise how "painful" it is going to be when the crap really starts flying. Thank God I live in a country where guns are illegal. Walmart's will be the next shooting galleries when there's only one packet of Oreo's left on the shelf.

[SoothSayer]

In the very short term just make sure you have a few litres of fuel stashed away, so that you don't feel totally cut off if fuel panics return.

Stash a bit of food from Tesco's budget shelves and have some water containers ready.

Some candles and battery lamps and you are ready for any silly panics buying caused by a fuss with Iran etc.

You'll be 10 time more prepared than most!

Once you have that sorted out it makes you feel a lot better!

Now you can long term plan house moves / career plans etc ... no wasted because PO and/or energy shortages/economic slump WILL hit the UK in a few years.

It's the medium term that is the tricky part ... will the wheels come off? Will the government become very bossy? Who knows ... just keep track of what's going on in the big wide world.

[perdition79]

Welcome to the Peak Oil mindset, virgincrude. It's a great feeling knowing that everything you've been taught, and every hope of future prosperity is bullcrap, isn't it? I find it kind of liberating. Nothing seems to worry me anymore, because I know it's all coming to an end soon enough. When I'm doing all the things that I enjoy, I now think to myself "I'm going to miss this when it's gone."

[virgincrude]

Jeezlouise, thanks for your words of support, actually I found out about Peak Oil last August and have been in a state of shock ever since. Large doses of scepticism and cynicism have crumbled in the face of the facts I wrote in my post. I started digging in the yard last September and now have lettuce, aubergines, toms, and cucumbers planted. I bought myself a bike. Most of my neighbours have well established kitchen gardens, I drink rainwater and MUST get solar hot water installed this year.

I share your attitude about our daughters’ futures and sometimes feel stimulated by the challenges before us. But there’s a lot to worry about!

Heineken, I’m saying Peak Oil is here, and we ARE continuing with life as usual! I read Heinberg’s Party’s Over and most of Powerdown, the rest I’ve gathered from these on line forums and places like Energybulletin. I am fully expecting to feel the pinching pain. Madpaddy and Shifty seem to be like me, fully aware of the shit hitting the fan, but unnable to stop ourselves from partying all the while … trips abroad while we still can, don’t panic. My husband’s family live in Pakistan, I can see a day when we are about to board our homeward flight after a family visit and are told only those with an extra 200€ can board the flight due to a sudden spike in the cost of fuel, or the sudden absence of fuel available. What happens when we don’t have that cash in hand and end up not being able to come home …?

I agree with Brentcrude in that it is going to be a slow unwinding, but shit happens. And it happens even though you may think you’re mentally prepared.

Gazzatrone, I didn’t mean to portray myself as optimistic about Peak Oil, and thanks for the advice about just how deep is our dependence on oil, from livestock feed to supermarket shelf. This is clearly told in Heinberg’s books and it freaked me so much I sat down to write letters to every member of my family. As it turned out, I got cold feet about telling anybody apart from my husband, and ended up sending one letter to a friend. She was so freaked she thought I’d lost my mind. I haven’t mentioned it to her again.

I am hopeful we’ll trade fresh goods by sail boat (we’re on the Spanish coast) maybe distribute by bike. I worry most about Big Medicine. What happens when the ambulances get no gas, when the drugs are not there, when the vaccines run out? I just hope this all happens in slow motion so we can mitigate the effects. I too feel the biggest problems in society will come from those who have nothing to lose. Crime is going to get a lot worse, and what happened in Sao Paulo recently, can happen anywhere else as our rich First World gets downgraded …

And Lighthouse, what’s wrong with hugging trees and heading for the hills? At this stage, it could be a pretty sane thing to do!

[PO_TimeCr0ss]

VirginCrude, you hit the nail on the head.

I felt exactly like you do when I first came across the reality that is PO. I can't even really put it into words. (http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic6785.html)

I started out by pushing PO, and even our plateu some 10+ years into the future. However, as I kept reading, this began to change. I haven't read The Party's Over yet, but being technically savy, I hit Simmons "Twilight in the Desert" first. After finishing this book, I strongly feel as you do now that we are in trouble NOW. PO caused me to step back and look at the Global situation (economies, etc.) in a different light; and I don't like what I see.

Welcome aboard. It's going to be one heck of a ride.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('virgincrude', '.')..Peak Oil is here, and we ARE continuing with life as usual!

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('virgincrude', ' ')Cantarell, Mexico’s biggest oil field is officially in decline, a decline rate of approx 2% per year in production will naturally affect prices and supplies, its principal consumer market being the USA.