[galacticsurfer]

I just had a week off and used it to read The Fourth Turning which I got by Amazon just before I left.

The book was a bit repetitive and not quite up to date on GW or PO but as it deals with long term historical phenomenons it does not really matter.

I was impressed to get a big picture of how we are the cause of our own problems due to the interaction of various generations and how the situation changes in a predictable manner over time. In other words history does not just happen to us, we make it happen and basically this has pretty much happened in a similar way before very many times and in lots of cultures and civilizations.

They introduce what they call a "saecular" which is roughly 80-100 years or a maximum human lifetime also equal to 4 generations. A saecular starts when a big world changing(for the culture concerned) event occurs. How the people experience this event depending on their age at the time and their role in the event determines the future history. They analyze concretely then back to about 1435 in English history going over to the American colonies and then to the US. Each of the first several Saeculars was over 100 years but since the revolution they have been always about 80 years. Since US Civil War for example

1865-1945
a) Gilded Age-1865-1886(end of civil war to Haymarket riots)
b) Muckrakers,etc.-1886-1908(haymarket to ??)
c) roaring twenties,technology era-1908-1929(??-Black Friday)
d) depression and war-1929-1945(Brlack Friday to V-J day)

1945-2025
a) American High-1945-1963(V-J day to Kennedy assassination)
b) Consciousness Revolution-1963-1983 (Kennedy death to "morning in Amerca" speech)
c) Unraveling- 1984-2001 (Morning in America to 9/11??
d) New crisis-2001-2021(PO +GW+ debt bomb??)

Each of 4 phases starts with an event which changes everything in public mood like Black Friday 1929 or Kennedy Assassination or 11th September. Kids born 2-3 years before belong to a generation who then experience this change and belong to a generation until the next great event occurs ca. 20 years later.

They then define the current living generations as follows:

GI-fought in WWII -1905-1925
Silent generation-1905-1943
Baby Boomers-1943-1961
Gen-X-1961-1981
Milennials-1982-1998??
New silents-1999??-2021??

They call the generations generally
1)Prophets(like baby boomers)
2)Nomads(Gen-X)
3)Heroes(GI)
4)Artists(Silent generation)

A war or new crisis always occurs when the prophets(boomers) become over 60 and control the reins of power with Nomads(Gen-X) in middle age, Heroes(milennials) in young adulthood and artists(silent) as children. A war happens because the prophets grew up in a very secure environment(1950s, etc.)and developed self confidence with no personal experience of the crisis allowing them to force a new crisis(Bush, Ahmadinedschad) without considering compromise. The nomads got screwed up by an upheaval(1960s) when divorce and crime, drug abuse messed and spiritual revivalism destroyed any sense of security making them rootless, amoral and without scrupel allowing them to execute war effectively (think of Jack Bauer in "24"). The Heroes(milennials) grew up as children of idealistic boomers or of Nomads when conservatism was again on the rise and with a focus on making the external world better physically so that they make good foot soldiers believing they can make happen what their parents (Boomers) say is necessary(young soldiers in Iraq who believe in Bush). The artists are the kids in the crisis who learn that children are meant to be seen and not heard and are facilitators after the war to help pick up the pieces and keep things going by being good compromisers, technicians without particular idealism (think of Greenspan or colin Powell from last silent gernation).

I think if Bush pushes it too much we could have WWIII(a quick preemptive crisis much too early in phase as with US civil war) or it could be more like with 1929-1932 with Herbert Hoover where they relied on old tacticsfrom previous era which worked before(gilded age tactics for Hoover). Bush and Greenspan have just been using all the old coping mechnisms which worked to get us out of the depression(Greenspan) and brought us through the cold war uncluding keynsian monetary expasionism, deficit spending, US global hegemony and the expansion of Suburbia nd the use of the car together with free trade and the expansion of the use of oil. Obviously the old tactics which worked in one "Saecular" cannot work to get us to the other one as this is the whole problem. Our whole paradigm has to change each time. Salvery was ok in theold south as a compromise between north and south in the first half of 1800s but due to the Great Awakening in 1820s-1840s(similar to the 1960s) the antislavery mood rose in land leading to abolitionist parties and the civil war. No deficit spending and self reliance built up early industrial USA but was challenged by early socialists and muckrakers who brought new solutions used to rescue America from the problems of the era(unions and big govt. programs). The current crisis cannot be saved by Bush who is rooted in the 1950s(american dominance with suburban/automobile ideal and never ending oil). The solutions are rooted in the 1960s developments (consciousness revolution)which in the end did not change society completely but were deferred due to the unraveling of the culture in the 1990s into a lot of interest groups and technology mania(similar to 1920s). However obviously a Gore type who espouses 60s type solutions to our current problems would be able to pick up the pieces post Bush(similar to FDR after Hoover was gone) to save the nation. Then the next 15 years would be a sort of great depression if war can now be avoided. We could then adjust to a new reality and survive until a new static level can be arrived at (powerdown, permaculture, local food productio, etc.) as recommended by so many boomer left leaning authors(Heinberg,etc.). Then when this is stabilized we have a new cycle aroung 2021 or so when the new generations would switch places, having aged and the baby boomers would be gone and no idealists left but everyone would be exhausted from the crisis.

[Kismet]

Yeah, I read their book "Generations" years ago. Same thing.

I wrote to the surviving author asking for his perspective on Peak Oil as the 'crisis' that the Millennial generation (corresponding to the GI generation that fought WWII) would probably have to face around 2020. He didn't write back though.

Their thesis that each generational cohort possesses its archetypal set of broad values and traits has some merit IMO. But no one to my knowledge has tried to pursue this method of looking at history in other countries. It would be interesting to see what Japanese generational hisotrian would make of his own country's history (given the homogeneity of Japan). Or China, given it's size, age and extensive recorded history.

The 4-cycle generational theory of historical development doesn't bear out unless it's also true for country's besides the US.

[galacticsurfer]

Well I was glad to have read it anyway as it gave me a new perspective on the history I already know and improved some of my knowledge of the cycles of history. I had always read about various spiritual revival times(various great awakening phases in different centuries in USA) but was not really sure when those were or how the people had gotten into those phases(all the wars were much more important and covered extensively). After reading their book it seems that history makes more intuitive sense now to me however. Before it seemed either linear, as most people think of it, i.e. pure progress, or chaotic, without any particular order. Their theory sort of makes me feel more comfortable with the differences between myself at 41 years old and members of various other generations, to understand why they are like they are, due to the results of their own personal experiences at a certain age in a certain point in time.

History is a social science so I do not think proof, like in physics is really necessary or even conceivably available(just ask Phillip Morris or Exxon Mobil about whether cigarettes cause cancer or whether CO2 causes GW). I think that we need new ways of looking at things to help us to make decisions. The scientific method(the idea of "absolute scientific proof" being the only measure of truth) is a big part of the problem of how we got to our current situation and will not get us out of it.

Now I am less panicky about the current big crisis we are in the middle of as I see it as part of a cycle of history and not just some sort of one time chaotic event which will be the end of everything. There will likely be another cycle and another big crisis in 2080-2100 when the people who get us through the current crisis(dead or alive) have all died off and no one gives a damn anymore about the peak oil crisis, just like I do not much care about the talk of WWII from my 82 year old father and 75 year old mother and anyone left from that generation.

[mgibbons19]

I love Strauss and Howe.

There are a few SnH fans on PeakOil here, and peak oil as the Problem during the next 4T has been discussed here a little bit.

So many doomers at PO see this as a one way crash though, that I don't think saecular theory has much hold.

There are discussions boards at fourthturning.com, which is populated by folks who are familiar with the theory. Most are believers, but a few are critics as well. Some of the folks at T4T post here at PO, but not many.