[PenultimateManStanding]

My guess is that in America, at least, the Peak Oil situation has made it across the radar of a large part of the population, but the masses aren't buying it yet. So what will make them all turn like a herd and start buying it? My speculation is that it will be something like this: Oil prices continue to rise as they have been. Gas prices rise and shortages become frequent. Stories in the media show worldwide scarcity problems. People realize something is happening which no one is in charge of. They realize that politicians and corporate agglomerations of decision makers and big powerful armies that need fuel can't do a thing to stop it. Overnight, the blinders come off and everybody realizes we are sinking. When? I don't think it will be anytime this year, maybe a couple more, I don't know.

[clover]

2007 at least. People here are complaining about gas prices, and talk about how expensive it was to heat their houses last winter, but the majority pin it on greedy oil companies or environmental bans on ANWR drilling. Supply and demand doesn't seem to have entered the general public's heads at all.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clover', ' ')the majority pin it on greedy oil companies or environmental bans on ANWR drilling.

[clover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clover', ' ')the majority pin it on greedy oil companies or environmental bans on ANWR drilling.

[jesus_of_suburbia_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'e')xactly. I'm thinking that at some point this current delusional mindset will snap and the truth will sink in and chill everybody to the bone.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jesus_of_suburbia', '
')Correct me if I am wrong, but I think Simmons alluded to this once. People will react differently if they believe someone is taking or keeping the oil from them, than if they come to the understanding that depletion is the natural process. The prior leads to greater justificaiton of violence and war.

[clover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jesus_of_suburbia', 'W')ell, isn't that what most of us here want to happen?... People will react differently if they believe someone is taking or keeping the oil from them, than if they come to the understanding that depletion is the natural process.

[jesus_of_suburbia_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's clear thinking. The best reason to try and get the truth out. It makes me appreciate the Peak Oil speakers and the meetings and all that. But is not another possible reaction of the public likely to be panic? Some would argue that panic is the thing to be avoided so the truth should be shielded from the public as long as possible for just that reason. The Panic could be frightful.

[PenultimateManStanding]

Well I'm sure many have noted the possibility of panic. But at some point people are going to sense that no one is in control and nothing anybody says until then is going to influence the nasty outcome one way or the other when they do is how it seems to me sometimes.

[jesus_of_suburbia_old]

This is regarding the 1918 flu pandemic.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')inally, I told her it would be good to remind everyone that the cities and towns that coped best in 1918 were the ones whose citizens were prepared by credible sources of information. In those towns neighbors helped neighbors and they got through it with the least pain. San Francisco is John Barry's example. Most other places, where the news media and public officials lied and kept the very existence of the epidemic from their readers, neighbors fled neighbors and the pain was terrible.

[Zardoz]

It's going to take a long time for people to "get it", especially when we have economists and conservatives grousing that it's all the environmentalists' fault for not letting the oil industry punch holes in the ground absolutely anywhere they feel like it.

They'll cling desperately to the belief that the oil is out there, and all we need to do is go drill for it.

Most of us will hang on to the belief that we can go on like this forever, right to the bitterest possible end. Many will go to their graves in deep denial. We just don't want to ever let this way of life go. We love it too much to let reality intrude upon our cornucopian fantasy.

[Vexed]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')e: The Masses Get It: When and How

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')Many will go to their graves in deep denial.

[pea-jay]

When do the masses get it? Only if and when major producing nations fail WITHOUT suffering:

Civil War
Invasion
Insurgency
Hurricanes
Labor disputes
Earthquakes
Idiot dictatorship error

AND

No major economic slump hits before that (decreasing demand faster than a declining supply).

Then maybe, by default, DEPLETION is blamed.

Other than that, I fully expect the Blame-O-Rama game to go on for several more years. There just are too many juicy targets to blame.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'W')hen do the masses get it? Only if and when major producing nations fail WITHOUT suffering: yadda yadda bad stuff

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'W')hen do the masses get it? Only if and when major producing nations fail WITHOUT suffering: yadda yadda bad stuff

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', '
')Clarification: Only if their production falls off (fails) without any obvious reason to affix blame upon, might the masses get it. And then only if there isnt an economic recession to take the heat of oil demand in the first place.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'd')emand.
But that doesn't exclude the possibility that some big event happens sometime that makes anybody who's still clueless realise what's going on.

[SoothSayer]

I recently mentioned Peak Oil in a phone call to a friend (he was until recently Technical Director of a major electronics company) ... he hadn't heard of it ... and as soon as he got the general idea he slammed the phone down after saying "No, don't tell me, I don't want to know"

He is not stupid so I reckon he knows I had a valid point to make ... but he simply has enough going on in his life without having any more worries!

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '.')..and as soon as he got the general idea he slammed the phone down after saying "No, don't tell me, I don't want to know"

He is not stupid so I reckon he knows I had a valid point to make ... but he simply has enough going on in his life without having any more worries!