[SoothSayer]

Hirsch thinks that we will realise that Peak Oil has hit within a year of the event happening.

Is this realistic?

Will the resulting 5% or so per annum increasing production shortfall be pretty obvious when it arrives?

Or will the media, the markets and governments smear the data sufficently so that we don't realise until maybe 3 years into the decline ... in which case it will seem like a "cliff" to the general public when finally announced?

[mekrob]

We can't know for sure until a good while after, say 3-5 years, but we can be pretty damn sure if there is a good drop in a single year. But a single year could just be within the margin of error so we can't take that single year to heart. But after a while, 3-5 years, then we will definately know (that is if they are still releasing data).

[lutherquick]

Like Campbell said, we started running out when the first drop was extracted...

The notice?

It's in the mathematics.

And does it really matter? Energy should have been prices high from the beginning, that would have built society that assumed energy was expensive... We would all be riding trains and busses and regenerative breaked cars... Co-generation for heat and electricity would have been the norm... at that point peak would have been so far off... Alternative energy (renewables) would have been in the majors.

The distortions of Iraq, gas prices at the pump, president Hu visiting Saudi Arabia, war in Chechnya, all of these are notices.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Once you pay $5 per gallon firs year, $7 per gallon next year and $10 per gallon next next year - you will know, regardless do they release data or not.

Saying that, I must admit, that coal liquification process (if operated on sufficiently large scale) would "scramble" the data for 5 - 15 (or even 20 years) and annual rise of price would be small.

Announcements about building those 15 new nuke plants in the next 5 or 7 years would be another hint.

Overally exponenential growth of number of cars will be converted into exponential growth of price of gasoline.

[Jack]

I think that Hirsch is right, if we're attentive.

I've noticed that network television news is filled with "hard fluff" - news about trivia. Other than occassional stock footage of starving Africans we don't see or hear much about what's happening in thei third world.

If we look carefully at news from those areas, we see more hints even today. One tool I like is Google News, with personalized headlines for peak oil, coal, and electrical blackouts. One gets some hints there.

Also, I think it's important to cultivate speaking acquaintanceship with a broad spectrum (economically speaking) of people. The folks at the lower edge of the wage scale are superb canaries in the coal mine, and they're generally willing to talk if someone lends an ear. My canaries tell me that things are getting harsher right now.

I think Wildwell said much the same thing in one of your other threads.

[Dreamtwister]

When a President who's a Texas oil man states on national television "We're addicted to oil", you were being put on notice.

When "evildoers" coincidentally find themselves living on top of oil deposits and transit routes *every single time*, you were being put on notice.

When the man with his finger on the trigger that can completely shut down global oil markets became the sole focus of the world's largest superpower, you were being put on notice.

When oil prices increased 600% in 5 years, you were being put on notice.

When BP became the world's largest solar panel company, you were being put on notice.

What more were you looking for? We're on the peak RIGHT NOW.

[Jack]

Dreamtwister, if there were a "Post of the Day" that everyone needs to read, I'd nominate yours.

Good points. Very good points.

[pea-jay]

Dreamtwister is right, we HAVE been put on notice. But as for an actual moment of truth peak, I think we could scoot by a few years before realizing it, especially if it is accompanied/preceeded by an economic downtown that destroys some more expendable demand out there.

There is plenty of demand left to destroy while keeping a functioning economy. We could pass a geological peak without even knowing it because economic reasons cloud the decline. It is only after the first recessionary period is over and demand resumes but is unable to rise above the original peak will we know the game is up.

On the other hand, if we get into a shooting war with Iran and a quarter of the worlds oil goes offline, I'd be inclined to say that was the peak.

[Colorado-Valley]

I agree. I think it's pretty obvious that we're already in the peak-oil decade, and the whole system is beginning to vibrate and make funny noises ... we're not quite operating on all cylinders anymore.

It's really everywhere in the news right now if you pay attention.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'W')ill the resulting 5% or so per annum increasing production shortfall be pretty obvious when it arrives?

[LadyRuby]

Where are people coming up with this 5% annual decrease? What if it's more like 1% annual?

[XOVERX]

The OPEC oil embargoes of the 70's involved a 5% oil import contraction each time.

And resulted in economic hardshipd, including ungodly gasoline lines.

Ever have to wait in a 2-hour line to buy gas? It will definitely get your attention that something ain't right.

5% constriction would be highly noticeable by the general population as an introduction to future times, I would imagine.

Let's hope it's more like 1%, but I have a bad feeling that's wishful thinking.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XOVERX', 'T')he OPEC oil embargoes of the 70's involved a 5% oil import contraction each time.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'W')here are people coming up with this 5% annual decrease? What if it's more like 1% annual?

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'W')hen a President who's a Texas oil man states on national television "We're addicted to oil", you were being put on notice.

When BP became the world's largest solar panel company, you were being put on notice.

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'W')hen a President who's a Texas oil man states on national television "We're addicted to oil", you were being put on notice.

When "evildoers" coincidentally find themselves living on top of oil deposits and transit routes *every single time*, you were being put on notice.

[ifmanis5]

All of the posts and information on this thread, forums, site are great.

But while all of you are waxing about Peak and its conspicuous arrival, what are any of you doing to help stave off Peak Oil? Sure, "Think Globally, Act Locally" is cliche and crunchy. But it has a shred of logic to it.

If you all are so smart, what can we do to slow down the Peak train? Seriouslly, I'd like some real suggestions along with the predictions. Yes, I'm new to this site and I temper all of the doomsayers with the cogent words and facts I also find on this site.

I'm looking at pairing down considerably for me and my family (solar panels, hybrid car, commute / telecommute, garden, etc.). But I'm only one person. It seems to me that there's a lot of clout and community on this site. So bring it on and effect some change.

---------------------------------------
"A Real Man Makes His Own Luck."
- Billy Zane, Titanic

[TT]

Gee thanks for your confidence that we, as a group, can actually do anything to stave off Peak Oil.

Obviously you haven't read all the posts on this forum or you'd realise that there are many, many ideas for the future. Not that these will stave off Peak Oil, but they may help mitigate the hardship for some.

So you're looking at pairing(sic) down considerably for you and your family. Well that's really going to help stave off Peak Oil. Like most people, you're just trying to find a way to continue with your current way of life. How is this going to help?

You say you'd like some suggestions along with the predictions. Well, there're are plenty of them here - you just have to read them. Try the Planning for the Future forum.

Don't be too hard on us as a group. We're just people trying to find a way to go forward against some very difficult times. I don't think any of us has the magic answer that you are looking for.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ifmanis5', 'A')ll of the posts and information on this thread, forums, site are great.

But while all of you are waxing about Peak and its conspicuous arrival, what are any of you doing to help stave off Peak Oil? Sure, "Think Globally, Act Locally" is cliche and crunchy. But it has a shred of logic to it.

If you all are so smart, what can we do to slow down the Peak train? Seriouslly, I'd like some real suggestions along with the predictions. Yes, I'm new to this site and I temper all of the doomsayers with the cogent words and facts I also find on this site.

I'm looking at pairing down considerably for me and my family (solar panels, hybrid car, commute / telecommute, garden, etc.). But I'm only one person. It seems to me that there's a lot of clout and community on this site. So bring it on and effect some change.

---------------------------------------
"A Real Man Makes His Own Luck."
- Billy Zane, Titanic

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ifmanis5', 'I')f you all are so smart, what can we do to slow down the Peak train?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ifmanis5', 'I')f you all are so smart, what can we do to slow down the Peak train? Seriouslly, I'd like some real suggestions along with the predictions.