[Guest]

OK, enough of us here have worked out what the politicians MUST already know

Oil is peaking, we're running into supply right now and peak will be in 2005-2008 at the latest, more than likely it will be next year

The moment oil prices go much above 60 the precarious world economy will do an Argentina - the US economy is a fraud
Its propped up by foreign debt bonds and a one off consumer lending binge - both governments and people are in the same position
We have overspent, both our money and our natural resources and we are rushing as fast as ever to the cliff edge

Inflation causes interest rates to rise which cripples the world economy and consumers
This leads to devaluation of the dollar as confidence is lost in debt bonds and people realise the economy is a train wreck
Countries will then be unable to pay for things and all hell will break loose, God knows what Bush will do

A real cynic would suggest Bush is invading countries to 'free' them to prop up the US economy
Any newly liberated country is going to buy US bonds, send money into the US economy. It didn't work for Rome and it won't work now, these basket case countries have nothing to offer except oil which a devalued dollar can't buy at market price

What will Bush do when all this happens?
Will he take the oil fields when his currency is worthless and he can't buy enough oil?
A war for oil makes sense if you have to prop up an empire

But the American empire is over, the more they try and fight this reality the worse it will be for everyone else

The only sane option is a multi-polar world with no one superpower in charge, debts written off in one go and resources shared around to avoid war and riots, and a single world currency

When all people lived, worked and died by relying only on a small number of people around them, and on the resources located nearby we had sustainability
Now everyone relies on a million other people and goods, spread all over the world

I can't work out exactly what it is the unsustainable about all this... but it looks like Marx was essentially right

Martin

[Such]

Actually I'm in favor of more local currencies, back by something tangible, to avoid widespread fiscal crises.

[Sencha]

There is no way an oil war would make sense (at least to us)

At first, even I thought that fighting for oil would stave off of the crash, but actually it would accelerate it, and here's why.

There is a priority list for who gets oil, and it goes like this:

1) Military
2) Industry
3) People

The military invades Iraq, steals oil. Realizes it needs to invade other oil rich nations, and knows that the only way to do it is with oil. The military ends up getting all the oil it steals, the rest going to the industries to keep building for the military. Whatever drops fall through the cracks goes to us.

That is why, at least partially why, gas prices rose after the attack on Iraq. We're not getting the oil, the U.S. Army is. If you want a rationale for an oil war, in the minds of people like Bush that is based on Peak Oil, here it is:

"In the eyes of our government, a fast crash may be the "kinder", "gentler" alternative." -Matt Savinar

The fastest way to a crash seems to be through an oil war to me.

[Chicagoan]

Local currencies will not prevent fiscal crisis, but can alleviate destitution. It is helping in Argentina.

[satjeet]

Local currencies were used in the US during the Great Depression with some success. Wendell Berry, essaist, farmer and poet is good on local communities and how to promote local commerce.

[Guest]

There are 3 things propping up the US Dollar:
1) the Japanese
2) the Chinese
3) the PetroDollar

There are 3 things that will occur when these props are removed:
1) interest rates will rise
2) the dollar will fall in value (already happening)
3) the stock and bond markets will fall (a lot)

There will be 3 major effects from this:
1) the price of real estate will drop (a lot)
2) unemployment will rise (a lot)
3) anyone invested in stocks or bonds will lost most of their savings

Those people who prepare correctly, or those live a 'simple' life will probably be just fine.

For the rest, the future is going to hurt (a lot).

[frankthetank]

Stock market crash...I also see this coming. These stocks are mostly based on consumer spending, and once that goes, its all downhill.