.
"To Get Rich you have to:
*Get up early;
*Work Hard;
*Strike Oil"
J Paul Getty
by ubercynicmeister » Wed 24 May 2006, 20:27:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercynicmeister', 'T')he truth is: we need those like Greg Palast and his article to get OUR arguments straight - Peak Oil is very weak in the area Greg has pointed out. Strengthen that, we'll win the damn debate, all right, hands down.
Very weak in the area of distinguishing between (1) peak oil as a convenient excuse for raising prices and (2) controlling regions as a means to set prices.
It's a lot more complex than that, but that'll do as a summary. One of the things that most people seem not to realise is that the place that the Oil Companies are dumping their millions is the stock market. This is why the Stock Market is going to go like a house on fire...literally. As the place burns down, they'll be making one loooong party the whole time.
Why? Well, the Oil Companies tried dumping their billions into banks (at 11% return to the Oil Companies!) in the early 1970's and the banks then on-loaned this stuff to the various African nations who're now bankrupt. One can only give 11% return if one loans at 16%. They did this again in the 1980's and made the situation worse.
This time around the stock market will defy gravity, seemingly, for quite an extended period, simply because the Oil Companies want a better return, after being dudded on their 1970's and 1980's investments.
Now the speculators who are now handling this considerable liquidity will be looking for High Returns, too...and what stocks are doing really really well? Oil Companies. The only problem is something callled "leveraging" which allows massive returns, until The Bills fall Due, then it's good bye quick and the Oil Company's stocks will haemmorage to death, fast.
To Summaries: before this happens, the Oil Companies will be making obscene profit after obscene profit at a time when everyone else is going belly-up. Methinks those who are going belly-up because of their fuel bills might be somewhat disgruntled about it, what say?
Again, the STOCK MARKET is gunna do really really well, for a while, and this will be at the time when everyone else is going from "middle-class" to "starving" in one step. Now, I dunno about you, but the average person in the middle class probably isn't used to picking food scraps out of garbage bins in order to survive.
Worse still: let's imagine you're an Oil Company executive...how the heck are you going to explain to an increasingly angry & confused public why it is you're doing so damn well when they (the public, Joe Average) is doing so poorly...?
But WAIT, there's MORE! You're a stock market player, and well-known at that. How do you explain to those who're now unemployed & bankrupt (sent that way by the high price of Oil + high inflation, caused by the high price of Oil + the high interest rates that the Economic Rationalists will apply in desperation measures to control said inflation) why it is that a certain small sector of the Economy (the Stock market) is doing so hugely well, "off the backs of others"...?
Angry, hungry publics have a habit of electing angry, hungry governments. Angry governments rarely do what's needed, only what's "reactionary" and they will start asking for some of the massive profits of the Oil Companies to be returned to the community whence they came...then the stock prices of the Oil Companies will start to fall and the "down side" of leveraging will kick in and they'll be wiped out...and the furious public will now be asking "where did all the billions go?" Not to mention what the angry share-holders will do to the board of directors...
The various Oil Company execs will then discover the joys of the Prison Shower Room. And to think: with a bit less greed and bit more fore-thought we could have avoided all that.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')alast adds a needed viewpoint to the mix. I knew this article was coming ever since I read his recent articles on using Iraq as a controlling mechanism. He had to write the peak oil article to clearly demonstrate the schism. He might have gone too far in his zealousness but it certainly left a mark.
No, he seems to take great delight in stirring up people, but what I take to be his point stands: Peak Oil is sounding like a VERY good excuse to gouge the consumer at the pump.
Go back to that Industry Executive: let's imagine they wanna come clean about Peak Oil....what're they gunna say?
Oil Industry Executive "Oh, sorry to bother you, but we've reached the 1/2 point for our planet's Oil reserves and we're gonna see the oil get more and more expensive because we're now on the "running out" phase of it..."
Public Response (sensing another Enron-style book-cooking): "And why didn't you tell us before?"
Exec: "We hoped it would all just go away...that someone would develop an alternative to oil and..."
Public (growing anger replacing shock): "Wouldn't a substitute for Oil send your own company broke?"
Exec (trying to hold her own): "Well, we didn't want to give our competition the edge so we didn't say much."
Public: "So, you knew about this and withheld important information from both the Public AND your shareholders?"
Exec (realising withholding info is a criminal offense in some parts): "Uhhhh, well...you see...think of it from our point of view..."
Public (smelling blood): "And you are now telling us that we have to feel sorry for you for putting up with your own poor performance?"
Exec (adopting siege mentality): "We're....we're trying to do the right thing, now..."
Public: "So you weren't doing the right thing before?"
At that point the Fraud Squad marches in and the exec is described afterwards as "assisting Police with their enquiries"
Think that's going to happen? Not Bloody Likely! The response is more likely to be along the lines of "move along move along, nothing here to see, move along..."
From
OUR point of view, what happens the moment the Oil Industry comes clean - and we haven't done our homework as regards 'establishing our reputation' as critics of the Oil Industry?
Instantly the entire Peak Oil Movement becomes seen as an Oil Industry Shill, a plant, a stool pigeon, an unpaid mouthpiece for Price Gouging Liars. Our greatest problem is our greatest strength - we've become so well educated in terms of Peak Oil & what and who and how and the wherefores of the whole thing we've forgotten what Peak Oil must look like to others: a whopping great front for the already-hated Corporate Excesses. The more we talk about the Oil Industry & it's failings, the more we are going to be seen as "front men" of tomorrow's Ultra-greedy Standard Oils & Universal Strangleholds (a Division of Engulf & Devour ™).
This is where the work must now be done - to put to the Public the truth about BOTH Peak Oil and those who are in the movement - disgusted insiders working with disgusted but informed outsiders, all trying to bring a mightily flawed industry to admitting the truth.
I ask everyone: in a Post Peak Oil world, which would you rather be known as: the Oil Industry's greatest friend...or a courageous David fighting against the Oil Goliath?
Pick one.
.
"To Get Rich you have to:
*Get up early;
*Work Hard;
*Strike Oil"
J Paul Getty
by ubercynicmeister » Fri 26 May 2006, 18:36:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') never met Mother Teresa, but she was very brave, in my opinion. And she certainly died a long time after World War 2.
I stand corrected !
![adora [smilie=adora.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/adora.gif)
LOL, now, now, no grovelling around here, hee hee...
.
"To Get Rich you have to:
*Get up early;
*Work Hard;
*Strike Oil"
J Paul Getty
by ubercynicmeister » Fri 26 May 2006, 18:40:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercynicmeister', 'P')ick one.
That was a masterful post.
OH, don't worry, I'm sure to make a complete idiot of myself, shortly, and thus ruin the reputation I've been trying to establish.

.
"To Get Rich you have to:
*Get up early;
*Work Hard;
*Strike Oil"
J Paul Getty
by lexicon » Mon 12 Jun 2006, 19:46:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'M')e, disappointed, too. And you wonder why I run screaming from politics?
You know, another lefty-turned-twat, Alex Cockburn, has taken the same smart-ass tack.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
The Virtues of Gas Guzzling:
Why I Don't Believe in "Peak Oil"
Since I don't believe in "peak oil" (the notion that world production is peaking and will soon slide, plunging the world into economic chaos) and regard oil "shortages" as contrivances by the oil companies and allied brokers and middlemen to run up the price, I fill my aging fleet of 50s and 60s era Chryslers with a light heart, although for longer trips these days I fill an 82 Mercedes 240D with diesel. True, diesel these days costs more than high-octane gasoline but the Mercedes gets 35 miles to the gallon, whereas the 59 Imperial ragtop and the 62 Belevedere wagon get around 18 mpg, which is still way ahead of the SUVs.
{edited by MQ to remove unnecessary text quotation in violation of the COC}IT AIN'T TRUE IF YOU JUST DON'T "BELIEVE" IT!
At least Palast, to the best of my knowledge, doesn't try to buttress his balderdash with abiotic oil advocacy. But Cockburn actually subscribes to that earth-is-a-chewy-nougat-center theory:
And what of "peak oil", the theory that oil is about to run out? Since we're all supposed to be dying of avian flu in the near future, who cares since there'll be no one around to work the pumps or even drive up to them? I don't believe in any effective role of man-made CO2 in global warming, a natural cyclical trend. I think the mad rush to throw money at the pharmaceutical companies for an avian flu vaccine is ridiculous. And increasingly, I don't believe we're about to run out of oil. I hang my hat on the views of Dr.Thomas Gold (founding director of Cornell University Center for Radiophysics) as outlined in his 1999 book, The Deep Hot Biosphere.
Gold's view, supported by many well qualified people, is that oil doesn't come from dead dinosaurs and kindred organic matter. Gold argues strongly that oil is a "renewable, primordial soup continually manufactured by the Earth under ultrahot conditions and tremendous pressures. As this substance migrates toward the surface, it is attached by bacteria, making it appear to have an organic origin dating back to the dinosaurs." Oil, Earth's renewable resource! Ethanol is an attractive alternative, as Brazil is proving. But ethanl will be a tough sell here, so for the time being I'll stay with the winning side.