[Jack]

I recently returned from a trip through Texas, Oklahoma, and some other undisclosed locations. I saw some things that seemed interesting at the time, in light of peak oil, and thought I'd throw them on the table for your consideration.

1) Traffic within cities is high, likewise on major traffic arteries. Traffic on the back roads I used was sparse - in some cases nonexistent. These were not bad roads, nor were they obscure - they were well paved, had a speed limit of 70, and a year ago were rather busy. That was no longer true.

2) Hotels were booked solid - as in no rooms to be had at some facilities (Best Western level). The clientele of those establishments appeared to be oil or natural gas company workers, or companies offering services to the oil and natural gas industry. A step up (in terms of price and quality) rooms were plentiful. There were very few tourists in any facility. In some instances, there were no tourists at all.

3) Entertainments seemed poorly attended (or not at all attended) by those from out of town. They were attended by those from the local area.

4) The teenagers/youths in rural communities were driving large, new pickup trucks. However, few of those trucks could be seen outside of town.

5) Business activity in most sectors of the rural communities seemed down markedly - and this was from a year ago. No additional competition had entered the communities.

6) Rural land seems quite popular; however, people with the means to procure it seem to be fewer. Foreclosures by banks and other lenders seem to have increased slightly. Note: there are people selling land that would make a great homesite, but would be utterly useless if one wanted to have a garden. Beware!

7) Restaurant usage appeared to be down. Prices were higher, in some cases remarkably so.

8) Gasoline was completely available.

9) Lots of trains with long lines of cars - all brimming over with coal - were heading to Texas. No doubt the demand for electricity will consume a lot of coal. If human-driven climate change is real, as I believe it is, the next generation is in for some interesting times.

10) At least some farmer types regard transportation of food items as potentially problematic - however, they are not yet peak oil aware.

11) One farmer type noted that, in his opinion, there would only be two growing seasons between feast and famine. This was due to the low level of grain stocks and other carryovers. I note that the level of grain stocks is something we've discussed here.

Regarding this item, I think the issue of two seasons (ah, but which two seasons!) from feast to famine is important. When food supply and distribution problems hit, there won't be time to ramp up our efforts - not as individuals, and not as governments. Considering the societal breakdown witnessed post-Katrina, one must wonder about the implications.

My conclusion is that we are, presently, seeing subtle effects of peak oil. In most cases, people have adapted to higher energy costs by reallocating their budgets - however, I suspect that there isn't much room for further shifting. We may see some greater impact when gasoline advances to $4 per gallon and remains at that level. It may well be that small, rural businesses will face a disproportionate impact from this - causing further damage to the infrastructure of the rural communities we're likely to need. City residents will, for a time, be able to sidestep some of the problems.

Thoughts?

[PenultimateManStanding]

Interesting set of observations, Jack. I know that the restaraunt I'm working in has seen business fall off considerably from 2 years ago. But it looks like this isn't going to be the year when all the bad stuff starts escalating. Gasoline is plentiful and prices seem to be easing a bit. Knock on wood, I'm hoping for a few more of the fat years, before I have to subsist on earthworms and dandelions.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'B')ut it looks like this isn't going to be the year when all the bad stuff starts escalating. Gasoline is plentiful and prices seem to be easing a bit. Knock on wood, I'm hoping for a few more of the fat years, before I have to subsist on earthworms and dandelions.

[pea-jay]

I am thinking that the fall off in movie attendance is due in part to rising fuel/energy costs. Why pay 17-20 for a pair of tickets to see a movie in the theater when your fuel bill probably has gone up by at least that much. It's easy demand destruction.

The fact that you can catch the film several months on DVD at home doesnt hurt either...

As for future years, I am thinking even lean years (like 1970s-80s era recession years) would be tolerable for most of us. Barring a catabolic collapse brought on by warfare or other stupidity, I think there is plenty of fluff left in our economy to destroy before the crunch gets real. Position yourself in essential sectors and reduce your expenses and you should manage reasonably well.

[ironborne]

I am curious to know what you would consider "fat" years? (Excuse my ignorance)

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ironborne', 'I') am curious to know what you would consider "fat" years? (Excuse my ignorance)

[ironborne]

It was not meant as argumentative and whether I am obtuse.. well the jury is still out. Being new to this forum I am still getting used to everyones vague references.

[ironborne]

There are a number of small booms going on in the West. When oil was down a few years ago a lot of people left the oilfield service companies for greener pastures. Now that we're booming again a whole new breed has come to work. I am by no means an old-timer but it's strange to have so many people green people around you.
Jacks observation concerning the people at motels is dead on. Right now of the 20 or so people on this job less than half are local. The rest are from OK and TX

[PenultimateManStanding]

OK, my apologies. Remember the story in the Bible Of Joseph? Seven years of plenty, followed by seven years of famine? I get the feeling that there is no Joseph to give wise counsel to the Pharoah anymore. Bless the Jews and their stories of wisdom. It's lacking in today's world.

[ironborne]

I bask in your radiance. Your feast/famine anology is dead-on for the oilfield. We are predicted to have another 3-5 years of boom and then who knows what.
The disconcerting thing is that many unfilled jobs are being given to foreign workers. Most of these jobs are 50-100k per year. The sad thing is the foreign workers deserve them because they are the only ones qualified.
It seems that a lack of qualified service-oriented oilfield workers could hasten a collapse of the industry.

[JoeW]

I live in eastern Pennsylvania, about equidistant from NYC and Philadelphia. Some of my observations:

1) Suburbia lives and it is right in my backyard. Rampant home price inflation in the large metro areas has pushed New Yorkers into my region.
2) Residential development in my area is still strong, and home prices continue to inflate as NY/NJ workers with larger wages buy into the market. It still makes sense to these people to get out of the $500,000+ house and get into a nicer home for half the price, then drive 90 minutes each way to work.
3) Development of chain stores (walmart/target/lowes) and restaurants (TGIF, Texas Roadhouse, Outback Steakhouse) continues and they all have lines out the door every night of the week. The former city-folk don't seem to mind waiting an hour or more to be seated, but my wife and I generally stay home or dodge those restaurants on special occasions when we do go out. New Wal-marts are generally met with opposition from people who live very close to the proposed site.
4) There is a great deal of talk among white collar co-workers about rising fuel prices, but none of them appear to be peak-oil-aware, preferring instead to blame oil companies/the bush administration/OPEC/SUV drivers/whatever. No one at this level has changed their driving habits or made any other lifestyle changes.
5) My neighbor rents a single-family home, has two children, and just traded in her Nissan Xterra... for a Buick Rendezvous. I had suggested to her that she should trade it in for something more economical. She drives ~25 miles each way to work, and stated that she needs the 4-wheel-drive. I said Subaru. She gave me a look as if to say she would rather be seen in a dumpster than in a Subaru. Of course, that was before she let the salesman talk her into buying the ugly Buick.
6) I think some of the baby-boomers are not as dumb as I thought. My wife's father and uncle have both shown signs that they understand what is coming, even though I have not discussed it at length with them. The uncle makes very good money and recently bought a Honda Civic (claiming that he has his 13-yr-old son in mind to drive it in 3 years) to complement the current family fleet... My wife's father brought up current oil production figures out of the blue the other day, which caught me off guard... My relatives appear to have no idea what is going on...
7) Over the past year, the number of concurrently-logged-on users at peakoil.com seems to have roughly doubled for any time of day that you look.
Local inflation recently measured 5.8%, or about 2% over the national average. Economists speculate that influx of money from NYC workers living in the area is causing the phenomenon.

Joe