[SoothSayer]

It seems that China and other countries are scurrying around setting up long term contracts with suppliers.

Last winter the UK could not get enough natural gas because other customers had long standing fixed contracts.

How should we expect such fixed contracts to affect the US / UK / "The West" when PO and/or gas shortages hit?

What would the US do if blocked from urgently needed supplies by a cluster of smug users waving their existing contracts "We were here first - nah - nah - nah"

[pup55]

There are a couple of things on this:

First of all, years from now the historians will look back on this period and note the Chinese approach of traveling literally all over the world to shore up business relationships and have these contracts, while the US is spinning its wheels accomplishing nothing for a trillion dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan. At the moment, it looks like a monumentally catastrophic move on the part of the US.

Secondly, a contract is only as good as your ability to enforce it, i.e. take to court or otherwise get a remedy in case the other party defaults on their end of the deal. Since the international courts, especially on the issue of these high level contracts, are really marginally effective, there is some question as to what good this will do long-term.

The real advantage they have is that they are taking a position as a rational world-leading nation, non aggressive, and just out to do some business. Whether they can maintain this if the going gets tough will be one of the key questions.

[SoothSayer]

Sort of answered my own question ...

Henry Groppe, a renowned oil and gas strategist and founder of the Groppe, Long & Littell consulting firm in Houston says:

"By the time we knock on every door, we'll find China and India have already made long-term arrangements," he said.

See link