by SoothSayer » Fri 12 May 2006, 04:40:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shadizar', 'T')his may seem trivial to many, but again I think you really have to look about Peak Oil (and its effects) holistically.
...
By that, I mean, that you really have to look at water issues (erosion), food supply, and all of the other issues.
...
I would suggest Jarod Diamond's book Collapse. He outlines the historically significant collapse of civilizations which disregarded holistic issues in their future.
...
Energy is important, but we have to look at it holistically.
Well done shadizar - best post that I have seen for ages!
The holistic effect of Peak Oil and/or the energy supply/demand gap is the KEY aspect of the situation.
I have commented on this in a couple of other posts: most people can see the problems in one or two areas ... BUT ... the current tendency towards "specialisition" means that many people no longer take the "helicopter view.
I strongly suspect that at some point we will hit a totally unexpected positive feedback loop which will give our society a severe knock. This will be caused by an unexpected chain of interactions between apparently unconnected industries.
The only way we can have any chance of preventing such problems is to computer model as much of the world's economy as we can.
I assume that such models already exists ... but I am having problems locating one!
(The Club Of Rome "Limits To Growth" model is probably too old and too limited to deal with the problem)