[urlich]

As any POiler, you have certainly fought with disbielief, maybe arrogance and denial.

Me too. But the worst thing in my case is that the people around me don't understand my decisions: use less car, choose local food, live frugally in general.

The situation in my family starts to deteriorate.


I know that peak oil is a fact. But I don't want to face a divorce either.

What to do?

I have come to a conclusion, which I want to share with you.

I have made with myself a bet.

"If there is no *real* (more on that later) sign of peak oil, shortage ecc... before November 28th, 2006, I will force myself to forget PO, unsubscribe myself from all the PO sites and, most of all, I will stop to try to convince my relatives of Peok Oil."

I will be a renegade POiler (shame on me!),
or, maybe better, an agnostic POiler.

Reason for the 28th November date: well, I did this bet in late October 2005, when the situation seemed really to deteriorate (the aftermath of Katrina, attacks in Nigeria, bird flu, here --in Italy-- there were some rumors of a natural gas crisis (which in fact happened later).

But then, nothing, business as usual. Well, a false positive, ok. But how many false positive will be? I cannot afford to quarrel with my wife anytime she wants to drive or buy expensive things.

Remember the movie "Les quatre cent coups" by Truffaut?

Well, I took the title and made this bet: I give to peak oil 400 "coups" (alias days) more, then I will forget it.

24th October 2005 + 400 = November 28th, 2006.

***

How to know in some sensible way if I have won or lost this bet? I choose this criterium:

On November 28th, I will start a 3 days of total news blackout: I will read no newspaper, no internet, no tv, no radio. If after this period I have not noticed any change in the normal way of life then I have lost the bet. If with my five senses only I will be able to see a change then, instead, I will win.

If I lose I will apologize to my wife: "sorry, I will say, I will no bother you with all these doomsayers. Let's forget po and live normally. No PeakOil.com, no ASPO, no Campbell, no sky is falling again"

Yes, I know, simply ignoring peak oil will not stop it,
I will not ignore it, I simply will take it for myself only,
as a personal "belief", without trying to convice others.

Now there are 200 "coups" remaining.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('urlich', '
')On November 28th, I will start a 3 days of total news blackout: I will read no newspaper, no internet, no tv, no radio. If after this period I have not noticed any change in the normal way of life then I have lost the bet. If with my five senses only I will be able to see a change then, instead, I will win.

[KhanCEO]

Urlich, it is very difficult to convince people about Peak Oil and everything it means. I have tried telling my family about it and they think I'm crazy along with all of my friends. You are not the only person with this problem. After many tries of trying to get people to understand what is going on i attempt to "lightly" hint** at the high possibly that oil prices will forever rise. Then explain its likely that oil will run out sooner or later. Saying everything that the post-carbon world will bring all at once really makes one sound insane, especially to others with no education on the matter.

[urlich]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
I think you will.

[Nike62]

Hello Urlich,

firstly I suggest you to add another 100 days, because I suspect that nothing *serious* will be "allowed" to happen in the world, before the USA mid-term elections...

Secondly, when you (with the most part of the "average Joe") at the beginning of 2007 will be perfectly aware of what is happening, it is too late to do anything of useful!

P.S. solo ad un italiano possono venire in mente idee del genere!
...D'altronde, non invano leggemmo "La coscienza di Zeno"!!!

[urlich]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KhanCEO', ' ')Saying everything that the post-carbon world will bring all at once really makes one sound insane, especially to others with no education on the matter.

[Beat]

Hi Ulrich,

will not works 'cause the "frog in the warm water" story.

You can notice it tonight watching the TV news (telegiornale), listening the speaker about traffic on the highway for the week end with gas at 1.35 € per liter.

Ciao,

Vito

(from Milan)

[lotrfan55345]

Qu'est-ce tu fais dans ton chambre avec ta copine ce soir?!

[aldente]

Lotrfan,
What do you do in you room this evening with your ... that part I am not able to translate. Someone help there please. What is a copine? Don't tell me it is a vibr.tor in Spanish!

As far as Urlich is concerned I recommend withdrawl. I myself have made a deliberate effort not to post (which lasted for a whole two weeks). So in other words, Urlich, you're stuck, you're here now and you live this kind of reality if you like it or not. There's no way out.

[lotrfan55345]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', 'L')otrfan,
What do you do in you room this evening with your ... that part I am not able to translate. Someone help there please. What is a copine? Don't tell me it is a vibr.tor in Spanish!

[aldente]

Sorry for the confusion. Hope you're well over there in Spain, how are things anyway?

[lotrfan55345]

Normal I guess, nothing much is happening, except for my finals that are coming up and then summer break... What about you?

[aldente]

Got myself in deep debt with the intention to excellerate out of the situation (increasing monetary inflow). Well, that's the old capitalist scheme in action, so nothing new on the front here either. Keep us posted there from Europe, will ya?!

[entropyfails]

Why did you think Kunstler called Peak Oil “The Long Emergency?” Why does the US administration call its oil wars “the long war?”

Because it will take a long, long time to finish.

Stick around the topic for a while and avoid the hyperbolic crap you see around here and you’ll find something more interesting and deeper than “doom next week.” You’ve barely scratched the surface of what you can learn.

There will never be a day of “everyone knows about Peak Oil and has Zombie Preparation Kits.” You are “betting” on something that will NEVER happen. So your date will come and pass and apparently you will “force yourself into ignorance” for “the sake of your family.” That is no strategy for success.

One final hint. Peak oil doesn’t need your proselytization. Learn, study, and share with those interested. Prepare your family as best you can with your wife’s spending habits. Don’t talk with them about it incessantly if they don’t want to hear.

That way, you can both continue your study into the human situation AND keep your wife.

You have posed a false dichotomy for yourself.

[urlich]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('entropyfails', '
')You have posed a false dichotomy for yourself.