I.T Industry post peak?

by **newhunter-gatherer** » Thu 11 May 2006, 13:18:06

With the recent announcement of over 4000 job losses at ntl communications due to ''high running costs'', it set me thinking, where is the I.T industry heading in a world of spiralling energy costs and increased scarcity?

by **RdSnt** » Thu 11 May 2006, 13:28:30

Perhaps miniturization will actually make it full circle and reduce the use of power that reflects the actual needs of the hardware.

by **newhunter-gatherer** » Thu 11 May 2006, 13:47:30

I find it difficult to envisage computers becoming smaller or significantly more energy efficient. Software programs are becoming ever more demanding for more processing power and energy consumption.

by **RonMN** » Thu 11 May 2006, 13:49:57

It depends on what part of the IT field you're in. I would guess anybody who could fix a pc could make money by supporting the PC's in his neighborhood. Programming could be done from a half a world away & transfer it over the web.

As long as we still have electricity there should be a demand, but the days of driving into work every day will come to an end.

by **clueless** » Thu 11 May 2006, 14:20:00

Good question.

I am in the IT industry and see Hardware & Software R&D is in all reality coming, to an end (at least as we know it), and now reducing costs in production now seem to be the focus, and that means moving production and application development to lower cost areas like (we already know where).......

Intel is investing 1 billion or more in Aisa, and My friends that work at Cisco live in constant fear of outsourcing to India.

The only game in town will be DOD (if you are in the US) related projects.

Things are looking pretty bleak for the US in the future if you ask me...The folks in Sillycon valley are still thinking the Techbubble is going to come back.

by **Davinci** » Thu 11 May 2006, 14:47:21

I have seen a trend in IT towards server consolidation utilizing VMWare or Microsoft Virtual Server. Why run 8 different servers that usually run at a 10% load when you can put everything on 1 larger server?

It definitely reduces footprint and power consumption. If I can halve a server room, I can halve the HVAC needs as well.

My company is currently implementing virtual server technology, and we are also standardizing application platforms so that we don't need all of these servers for accounting, timekeeping, etc. etc. etc. My goal is to go from 36 servers down to 6 multi-processor machines.

On the consulting side of our business, server consolidation is a big service offering.

We've also implemented remote support tools, which allows a portion of our IT staff to work from home, and also allows us to support our remote offices without making weekly "fix-it" trips.

Post peak? I think consulting services will drop like a rock, and we'll see IT go into maintenance mode instead of implementing new technologies. Software development will continue to be farmed out to the cheapest bidder...remote support with weekly office visits will probably be the norm.

by **Caoimhan** » Thu 11 May 2006, 15:07:30

I'd also like to point out that, hardware wise, the big chipmakers are always looking at ways to reduce the heat output of their processors to allow them to run faster. Reducing the size of the electrical pathways on a chip is the most common way that is done.

Edit: Less heat = less power consumption.

But for most business applications, the hardware available already well outstrips the need for computing speed.

I work for a company that has web conferencing software as one of their products. As energy prices are rising, they're using that fact and are currently in the middle of a campaign where they are letting anyone try the product for free, if they'll telecommute to work 2x/week.

Telecommuting was part of Al Gore's vision for reducing our nation's energy consumption. It's not a bad idea. I think culturally, people weren't ready for it so much 10 years ago. But now more and more white-collar workers are getting accustomed to using computer technology and the Internet to get their work done, and it might be more feasible.

by **benzoil** » Thu 11 May 2006, 17:04:33

As someone who just left the IT field voluntarily, maybe my perspective is colored but my take is that it will crater more than we'd like to think.

Programming jobs have been hard to come by for awhile (in the U.S.) and will get hard to find in India as well, once U.S. companies pull the plug on anything without an immediate ROI.

Sys admins, usually the last ones to get laid off, will get laid off in droves as companies move their entire server suites offshore. Why not upgrade to a cheap T1 and have someone else deal with all that hardware/electricity/upkeep. Web 2.0 apps will enable this even more.

Gateway will be a casualty even without PO. Apple will tank once iPod sales dry up (Sad for me, I love my iMac). Microsoft, Dell, and IBM, Cisco will make money off goverment contracts, but not like they used to. AMD and Intel will merge. Local/State and non-US governments will push for Open source solutions as cost cutting measures, but it won't be enough to bring about a sea change.

Sooner or later, a lot of people will have to choose between fast Internet and Cable TV. I'll take fast internet, but most won't. This will impact all the major telcos, and anyone else in the ISP arena.

Most people will refrain from upgrading. We'll all be using XP in 10 years since no one can afford to upgrade to Vista. The good news is that Spam will decline as energy costs associated with maintaining servers just to spit out a billion emails a day gets higher.

Computer consulting? Gone. Who needs an external consultant when you can insource for next to nothing with all the unemployed talent. Assuming that all those financial service, legal, medical and other service sector companies that currently pay for consulting still exist.

To sum up: IT will suffer as much as most other fields. I'd love to be wrong, though.

by **rushdy** » Thu 11 May 2006, 17:43:57

I share a similar view. I'm actually on a Computer Science degree course at the moment :-D

I started the beginning of last year, and only learnt about peak oil about 10 months ago. The way I see it, I'd rather stay a student recieving student loan company payments which I'm spending all the spare cash on peak oil prep than in a low paid job, waiting for the chop when things get rough. Being a student is a secure profession for the moment. It's not like I intend to ever pay my loan back!

I'm really trying to time my graduation right so I can cash in on relocalisation and start a local business.

by **JustinFrankl** » Thu 11 May 2006, 17:47:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caoimhan', '
')Edit: Less heat = less power consumption.

by **GoIllini** » Thu 11 May 2006, 18:04:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'G')ood question.

I am in the IT industry and see Hardware & Software R&D is in all reality coming, to an end (at least as we know it), and now reducing costs in production now seem to be the focus, and that means moving production and application development to lower cost areas like (we already know where).......

Intel is investing 1 billion or more in Aisa, and My friends that work at Cisco live in constant fear of outsourcing to India.

The only game in town will be DOD (if you are in the US) related projects.

Things are looking pretty bleak for the US in the future if you ask me...The folks in Sillycon valley are still thinking the Techbubble is going to come back.

by **Caoimhan** » Thu 11 May 2006, 18:46:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caoimhan', '
')Edit: Less heat = less power consumption.

by **benzoil** » Thu 11 May 2006, 20:38:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'A')t UIUC, nearly everyone is graduating with $50K+/year jobs; a few years ago, we were having real trouble getting recruiters to come to job fairs.

Just a month ago, one of my friends, who's graduating with a 2.1 GPA, landed a $68K/year job at Microsoft.

What I've seen has shown that if you're smart and creative as a programmer, you're pretty indispensible right now- especially in the financial sector.

So I really don't know what you guys are talking about. It's not quite like 1998 down here, but it certainly doesn't feel like 2002.

by **strider3700** » Fri 12 May 2006, 02:23:20

lots of sectors are still barely computerized. Fortunately they can save a crap load of cash in some cases thanks to computers and the internet. You can still make money in the industry but you're probably not going to stay employed making general mass market software.

I'm currently making one off custom software that should save time and fuel by reducing travel requirements.

Will this get me to retirement? Hell no but it should last a few more years no problems. Eventually the industry will be crippled by fuel costs I can just help delay that. A Year from now I get the feeling I should be on my way to finding something more likely to survive the peak. It will probably involve software but I doubt being a pure programmer will be good enough.

by **Doly** » Fri 12 May 2006, 05:01:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'I')t will probably involve software but I doubt being a pure programmer will be good enough.

by **SoothSayer** » Fri 12 May 2006, 05:18:51

>> Same with posting to this forum: no one will give a rat's behind if you knew about PO before everyone else. It'll just make us all insufferable at post-PO cocktail parties.

Spot on! As well as posting here we need to get off our bottoms and DO something!

by **benzoil** » Fri 12 May 2006, 09:30:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'l')ots of sectors are still barely computerized. Fortunately they can save a crap load of cash in some cases thanks to computers and the internet.

by **JustinFrankl** » Sun 14 May 2006, 10:02:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caoimhan', '
')Fine, but I forsee advanced power management of computer systems becoming commonplace. AMD already offers the feature in their desktop CPUs to run at less than maximum power when the software doesn't need it. The chipsets are also getting smarter and altering the speed of the cooling fans in response to CPU, Chipset, and Case temperatures to manage the noise levels from the fans. Fewer fan RPMs = less current = less power used.

We already have the ability for the computer to "hibernate" after a certain time period, or even completely shut down, along with the monitor/display.

by **waegari** » Tue 16 May 2006, 21:32:24

I see no mention of the oil that goes into the manufacturing of computers, as in this old story on a Un rapport on this rather important matter:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The manufacture of an average desktop computer and monitor uses more than 10 times its weight in fossil fuels and chemicals, according to a United Nations University (UNU) study which has called for worldwide action to halt "the growth of high-tech trash."

by **newhunter-gatherer** » Wed 17 May 2006, 05:57:49

It takes 1.2kg of fossil fuels and 10kg of water to produce a single 32mb microchip!

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