[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MyOtherID', '.')..lived many decades in Africa (Namibia, Angola, S Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana). I was a teacher in schools with all black pupils...

[lorenzo]

Lots of people associate Africa with eternal doom and gloom. But there's some reason for optimism. Africa is experiencing the highest growth in more than three and a half decades, and the growth is persistent.

Since the World Bank and the IMF have left the continent, humiliated and exposed as frauds, the region has begun growing again. (There's now a consensus that the Structural Adjustment programmes and the neoliberal policies advocated by the WorldBank and implemented by its non-elected offshore dictators are the main culprit for Africa's past economic disaster.)

Today, Sub-Saharan Africa is the world's fastest growing region, far surpassing East Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. (We're purely talking about hard GDP growth.)

Some numbers:

Spectacular growth, obviously, for the oil exporters:

Equatorial Guinea (+18,6%)
Mauritania (18.4%)
Chad (+18%)
Angola (+15,7%)
Congo-Brazzaville (+9,2%)
Soedan (+8%)

But it's not just oil, Africa in general is becoming an exciting place. The following countries have shown +5% growth figures consistently during the past five years and have done well this year again:

Uganda (+9%)
Malawi (+8,3%)
Ethiopië (+8,2%)
Liberia (+8%)
Mozambique (+7,7%)
Burkina Faso (+7,5%)
Sierra Leone (+7,2%)
Niger (+7%)
Cabo Verde (+7%)
Tanzania (+6,8%)
DR Congo (+6,5%)
Madagascar (+6%)

The two big bosses of Africa, Nigeria and South Africa, go along well:
Nigeria (+6.9%)
South Africa (+4,9%)

The only disaster is Zimbabwe (-6,5%), but that's because it's headed by a loony.

Now the big question is: will this great GDP growth be eaten up by population growth (which is kind of a problem in Africa)? Well, in most cases it won't. Most of the countries mentioned see their *per capita* GDP growth rising much faster too. So the good news is real good news.

Even the potential future powerhouse of Africa, non-oil producing Congo-Kinshasa, which has the continent's highest fertility and birth rate (with 3% annual growth and 6 kids per woman) sees its per capita GDP growth surpassing population growth spectacularly.

Moreover, and very importantly, these official statistics do not account for the vast informal economy that thrives in Africa. It's estimated that up to 40% of the entire continent's economy is based on it.

(A bizarre piece of news illustrates this well: mobile phones are selling like hot croissants all over Africa, so well that even the most conservative operators now see Africa as their last growth continent and they're venturing into it; the companies were perplexed, though: the official GDP growth figures could never explain the spectacular growth in demand for the product; and indeed, deeper research showed that the informal economy is entirely responsible.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') A Yahoo News article describes how easy it is for financiers to underestimate: "The mistake, providers say, was to make plans based on GDP figures, which ignore the strong informal economy, and to assume that because land line use was low, little demand for phones existed." As it turns out, the low demand for land-lines was because quality/service was so awful, not because they weren't wanted. Cellular companies that did take the plunge have been richly rewarded: "Cell phone subscriptions jumped 67 percent south of the Sahara in 2004, compared with 10 percent in cell-phone-saturated Western Europe." The article also describes how cell phones have improved the lives and businesses of Africans, with one of the examples I've seen: "Wilson Kuria Macharia, head of the traders' association at the Nairobi market, says he no longer has to spend two to four weeks at a time roaming across Kenya and Tanzania in search of fresh produce. 'A few mobile phone calls take care of what used to be the most grueling part of the business.' "
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/003636.html

[americandream]

I've never been one to believe this flim flam about Africa......after all, if you're one of the stupid lumpenproleteriat types.(forever touching your forelock at the boss as his shadow passes by), you are bound to buy into the elitist propaganda regarding the worlds most robbed continent.....yes, their elites did it to them as well as the Arab, Europeans and now Asian elites...in a nutshell the ordinary African man, woman and child was robbed by the perennial rogue, this planets over fed minority at the top.

Lol...its amusing to hear them whine on about Peak Oil while they drive their SUV's to the golf club....like the spoilt brats they are.

[Jester]

I'm sorry, but I fail to see how regions where famine is a regular event, experiencing population growth is all that beneficial...

[Clouseau2]

If a farmer in Africa grows a subsistence crop that feeds his fellow countymen, selling it for $1/ton, and then next season switches to a cash crop, exports it to the first world for $20/ton, then his contribution to the GDP has gone up 1000%, yet there is less food to go around ...

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Clouseau2', 'I')f a farmer in Africa grows a subsistence crop that feeds his fellow countymen, selling it for $1/ton, and then next season switches to a cash crop, exports it to the first world for $20/ton, then his contribution to the GDP has gone up 1000%, yet there is less food to go around ...

[Clouseau2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Clouseau2', 'I')f a farmer in Africa grows a subsistence crop that feeds his fellow countymen, selling it for $1/ton, and then next season switches to a cash crop, exports it to the first world for $20/ton, then his contribution to the GDP has gone up 1000%, yet there is less food to go around ...

[bonjaski]

the grow from 1$ gdp to 1.10 $

i think the term third world for africa is an euphemisn,
fourth world comes nearer to reality.

third world is middle east ( iran .. )
second world for example russia or mexico;

africa next 25 years won't make great steps forward, to much corruption and wrong mentality, and system;

[bonjaski]

we should go there with our whole force and establish a system,
where those who work gain and not those who steal or make many childrens.

for middle east its too late, muslims are already lost, they will burn (not in hell, but in sun) )

but i am sure we can beat the right culture into those africans )

i am proud of me, such a racist comment )

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Clouseau2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Clouseau2', 'I')f a farmer in Africa grows a subsistence crop that feeds his fellow countymen, selling it for $1/ton, and then next season switches to a cash crop, exports it to the first world for $20/ton, then his contribution to the GDP has gone up 1000%, yet there is less food to go around ...

[formandfile]

Christ...someone please explain to me what is so wonderful about a population explosion in sub-saharan Africa??

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('formandfile', 'C')hrist...someone please explain to me what is so wonderful about a population explosion in sub-saharan Africa??

[Atlantean_Relic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('formandfile', 'C')hrist...someone please explain to me what is so wonderful about a population explosion in sub-saharan Africa??

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('formandfile', 'C')hrist...someone please explain to me what is so wonderful about a population explosion in sub-saharan Africa??

[galacticsurfer]

I am just reading Heinberg's book Party's Over where he says that food production is not rising although demand and population are rising( let's call it Peak Food). The USA has started importing food net- so much for breadbasket of the world. So let's look at this issue globally as we always do with oil. Just substitue the word food for oil everywhere. The world makes about half of the fertilizers from fossil fuels and are quickly degrading soil and losing water.

So we are losing capacity anyway and food capacity would decrease due to degradation even without Peak Oil. With peak oil we will lose arguably 50% of capacity as there are then only natural fertilizers(manure). So then in the normal way of things today due to globalization we transport excess food where it does occur(USA and Europe) to people who are not so efficient (Sub Saharan Africa) or have decided for another way of high Tech life (China) or whose land or water is running out (India). But unfortunately oil for global food transport won't be there or will be too expensive after PO. At the same time this occurs diesel oil for tractors and nat. Gas for fertilizers will be gone or too expensive eliminating any potential surpluses anyway.

Growth is not the paradigm we need on earth now as there are too many of us to be reasonably fed using current square footage of arable land with traditional(organic, crop rotation) farming methods. Obviously the Africans should learn how to produce enough grain or whatever for themselves just like old Egypt was the bread basket for the Mediterranean under Rome and long before that. Africans cannot rely on Europe or America anymore in times of drought as the northern surpluses will be gone and we in the north will be reduced to hard labour on farms ourselves if not to subsistence farming. Obviously Chinese and Indian and Africans see what the north has acheived in TV shows and in books and upon visiting The West and enjoy electronics, etc. and want to emulate us. In the end however the whole system is completely unsustainable. We found in Texas then in Saudi Arabia big oil wells and lived high off the hog for a century forgetting how to work. Now "The Party is Over" and reality (like on Easter Island when the last tree fell) is gonna set in fast.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('galacticsurfer', 'W')ith peak oil we will lose arguably 50% of capacity as there are then only natural fertilizers(manure).

[Jack]

Africa on the brink of catastrophic change -- blame global warming

Seattle Post-Intelligencer

Africa is facing the greatest catastrophe in human history. Climate change represents a nightmare scenario for the future of the people of the world's poorest continent, according to the official preparing a top-level report due to land on the desks of British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor to the Treasury Gordon Brown later this year.

More At Link

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It appears that Africa will not be a viable source for large
quantities of biofuels if the report is correct. One cannot
help but wonder if the combination of peak oil and climate
change might trigger a significant dieoff.

Better stock up on MREs. By the pallet load.

[Laurasia]

That article drives home the truth quite brutally; I am sitting at my computer in comfort and reading about unimaginableable death and misery. Okay, so I may encounter some misery in the future, but nothing like those poor people. I suppose SOMETHING could be done to mitigate some of the effects of climate change but it really looks like apocalypse is looming for the cradle of Humanity.

Regards,

L.

[rumspringa]

There's an interesting article in the month's Monthly Review on the oil politics of sub-saharan Africa--Empire of Oil: Capitalist Dispossession and the Scramble for Africa by Michael Watts

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lthough Africa is not as well endowed in hydrocarbons (both oil and gas) as the Gulf states, the continent “is all set to balance power,” and as a consequence it is “the subject of fierce competition by energy companies.” IHS Energy—one of the oil industry’s major consulting companies—expects African oil production, especially along the Atlantic littoral, to attract “huge exploration investment” contributing over 30 percent of world liquid hydrocarbon production by 2010. Over the last five years when new oilfield discoveries were scarce, one in every four barrels of new petroleum discovered outside of Northern America was found in Africa. A new scramble is in the making. The battleground consists of the rich African oilfields

[gego]

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/c ... BD4A264077

"LAST week’s warnings from gold miners operating in Ghana that their operations could be hit by power disruptions highlighted increasing power shortages across Africa, as growing economies grapple with inadequate planning and higher energy costs."