[mrobert]

Don't get me wrong. I work because I love what I do. And it has it's full benefits. I am self-employed.

What I try to emphasize is, that some of us (including me), care about what will happen tomorrow.
I drive a very fuel efficient car. Somewhere in the 40+ mpg range.
I never waste energy, even if I can afford to pay it.
For me (personally), energy can go up to become 5 times more expensive, before I start worying. Yet I save as much as I can.

Our problem is that most of the 6.4 billion don't care.
And governments encourage people into not giving a sh*t about anything.
PeakOil is one of the things that will put an end to all.

Last time I didn't vote. It was the first time I did that.
Except wellfare, NOBODY said ANYTHING else.
I didn't expected something serious like proposing a solution for PeakOil ... but at least someone to offer to build a public toilet if elected.

---
I grew up with the door always open and sharing my apple with a friend. Now I have a front door that would make the FED gealous ....

[Novus]

How bad? How Soon?

Well the answer to that really has a lot to do with the Weather. If we have a really hot summer like the one in 1995 then we would be in big trouble with nationwide blackouts in the face of 100 degree heat. In 1995 hundreds of people died of heat exhaustion and there were no blackouts. In 1977 there was a blackout in NYC during the middle of a heat wave and riots immediately broke out in the streets.

Later in the summer or fall we could see Hurricanes. The oil situation has really detrioriated since Katrina last year. There are sporatic shortages all over the place right now and their is no Hurricane. If a Hurricane comes in this situation the shortage will become massive and prolific from coast to coast. Forget about the price of gas because there just won't be any to buy.

If you think the summer is bad the winter could be worse. If we have a winter like 1978 civilization would practically come to an end. There would be no heat for millions of McMasions causing everyone's water pipes to bust. After that water and sanitation would NEVER be restored. There would also be blackouts during this long, cold, dark winter. Suburbia would have to be abandoned en mass. Those who refused to leave would be dead, either frozen and/or starved.

I don't think geopolitical events will be an issue in the short term.

[Zardoz]

How bad will it get? Well, it could get this bad if it turns out we can't maintain current food production levels as the oil and gas runs out:

Starvation on an unimaginable scale

[mrobert]

My country, Romania, has a birth rate of 10.79
Our population dropped in the past years ... with around 2 milion (from an initial 23 milion).

@Novus : What you talk is a reality here. I see it around me.
We pay more for gas then the US or Europe average, and almost the same price for gas and electricity ... but watch this :
Average wage in Romania : Little over 200 Euros (around 250 USD).

[Ludi]

Hm, sorry, mrobert, you lost me somewhere. I thought you were complaining about working, now you're complaining about nobody caring...

and complaining that "governments" don't want anyone to care? Of course they don't, people who care get too involved and tend to not allow people to remain in power very long, very bad for "government."

You're very fortunate to be in such a good position, many of us are not so well off (but, oddly enough, don't bitch about how hard we work, etc etc). I strongly identify with the poor because I am nearly one of them, living quite frugally in many ways and depending more and more on my own direct labor for benefits, not the system. I'm self employed also but have no benefits as usually understood (can't afford health insurance any more and will probably have to cancel it this year). Many of us are on the brink of that "oh craaaaaaap!" precipice, though the well-to-do don't see anything wrong or different about things these days.

For some of us it will get bad very soon if not immediately. For the well off, it may take a long time for them to notice anything at all.

[12amps]

Guys, sorry maybe I didn't write clearly enough or truly get my point across at the beginning of this post, but what I meant to say is something more like this:


I know the world is basically fucked. Not only is this pyramid going to collapse (globally) I see the trend of human nature as the ultimate thing that will do us in.

The corporations are controlled by the stockholders who just want mo money, no matter how it is done. They [the investors] don't really give a shit about enviroment or peak this peak that as long as they get their $$$$$$$$$. The corporations are legally supposed to put the shareholders interests as one of the top priorties....

On the national level, America is basically controlled by the big corporations and military-industrial complex. This nation can't really do jack squat to help the underlying situation becuase the corporations are in control! And the corporations ONLY care about NOW, they NEVER care about 30+ years from now, UNLESS its about planning how to get RICHER, GROWTH MORE, EXPAND, etc.

On the GLOBAL level, nothing can really be done either. Countries each do not really want to scale back and shutdown when they see everyone else living like there is no tomorrow! Why should China powerdown when Americans are still partying? I'm sure Bush is thinking why the fuck US should conserve just to give the oil to China? No nation will EVER be willing to do what is necessary. (at least not enough and not in time)
ANd besides to do so (to powerdown) WOULD LITERALLY BE A COMPLETE COLLAPSE ANYWAY!!! THere is no way to powerdown a nation nicely. It just cant happen. Its not as simple as powering down the command module of Apollo 13.

So we are fucked on every level and every scale. And nothing a singular individual can do will really help that much.

If you save money and get out of dept and lose weight and get health back it will help YOU no doubt, what only to a severely limited extent. YOU don't exists in a vacuum, YOU are run on the platform of modern society, and this platform is destined for DOOM.

Let me give a simple analogy, pretend you driving a Corolla on a wide highway with little traffic. Pretend you driving long distance and want to push the arrival time earlier. So let pretend you a good ass driver and gots some tight skills and manuver very good with that small toyota. You end up getting ahead of everyone right? You zip pass 18-wheelers one after another and go are big #1.

Thats like 1998. The average person just need to try hard, get a good education, and he comes out and gets a high paying job, payes off student loan, then buys a house and car and starts an American Dream.

[s]
Now pretend you are in Los Angelos stuck in the [/s]
scratch that, pretend you are in Houston during that Rita shit and are on your way to Dallas. You and every car around you are jam packed bumper to bumper for literally hundreds of miles with no end in site. You are going 5mph average top speed, somethings not moving at all. In this situation it no matter you got skills, it no matter you got manuverable jap sucker car, it no matter you lazy or motivated or smart or dumb or skinny or fat.....

Thats like postpeak oil in America. You have a PhD? Good for you, so fucking what? You still can't find a job, any job.. You still can't afford even basic one bedroom apartment. You not much better off than stupid high school dropout...... except you more in dept becuase you spent 100,000 on a college education... It doesn't matter if you work hard, if you are smart, if you are 'moral' or nice, or lucky, still you are no better than the worst.
The great equalizer that is PO is far more dangerous and deadly than any commy or terrorists.

Bascially, WE ARE FUCKED!

Yes, I KNOW THAT. But my question is this:

If the above badness situation will not happen until say 2030, then what the fuck do I have to worry about? Our subjective live is about ~50-80 years. When we die the world, the planet, the universe and all existence sieze to exists! Therefore as long as BADNESS is significantly far away (for most of us: ~20-30years away) it REALLY DOESN"T EVEN MATTER!!!

GEt what I am saying?

I know this is 'selfish' of me to act that this, but hey its human nature. Its why I think humanity is fucked...

I guess this is kind of like Enron mentally, but I really don't care.
As long as I don't have to suffer too much that all that really matters to me.

[Pops]

What I’m saying is that nobody here can tell you!

Personally I want to survive but I want my kids and grandkids to survive as well, so I ain’t looking to the statistical 22 years I have left – I’m looking to the 60 my grandkids have.

So in answer to your analogy I’d say:

Get the **** off the highway!

[lotrfan55345]

I think bird flu will affect le economie de monde first, before peak oil.

[12amps]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '[')i]What I’m saying is that nobody here can tell you!

Personally I want to survive but I want my kids and grandkids to survive as well, so I ain’t looking to the statistical 22 years I have left – I’m looking to the 60 my grandkids have.

So in answer to your analogy I’d say:

Get the **** off the highway!

[Falconoffury]

This summer the USA will default on debt, and the whole economy will spiral into hyperinflation in a matter of weeks. Businesses will shut their doors, unemployment will skyrocket to great depression levels, and the stock market will crash hard.

[12amps]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'T')his summer the USA will default on debt, and the whole economy will spiral into hyperinflation in a matter of weeks. Businesses will shut their doors, unemployment will skyrocket to great depression levels, and the stock market will crash hard.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('12amps', 'G')uys, sorry maybe I didn't write clearly enough or truly get my point across at the beginning of this post, but what I meant to say is something more like this:


I know the world is basically fucked. Not only is this pyramid going to collapse (globally) I see the trend of human nature as the ultimate thing that will do us in.

The corporations are controlled by the stockholders who just want mo money, no matter how it is done. They [the investors] don't really give a shit about enviroment or peak this peak that as long as they get their $$$$$$$$$. The corporations are legally supposed to put the shareholders interests as one of the top priorties....

On the national level, America is basically controlled by the big corporations and military-industrial complex. This nation can't really do jack squat to help the underlying situation becuase the corporations are in control! And the corporations ONLY care about NOW, they NEVER care about 30+ years from now, UNLESS its about planning how to get RICHER, GROWTH MORE, EXPAND, etc.

On the GLOBAL level, nothing can really be done either. Countries each do not really want to scale back and shutdown when they see everyone else living like there is no tomorrow! Why should China powerdown when Americans are still partying? I'm sure Bush is thinking why the fuck US should conserve just to give the oil to China? No nation will EVER be willing to do what is necessary. (at least not enough and not in time)
ANd besides to do so (to powerdown) WOULD LITERALLY BE A COMPLETE COLLAPSE ANYWAY!!! THere is no way to powerdown a nation nicely. It just cant happen. Its not as simple as powering down the command module of Apollo 13.

So we are fucked on every level and every scale. And nothing a singular individual can do will really help that much.

If you save money and get out of dept and lose weight and get health back it will help YOU no doubt, what only to a severely limited extent. YOU don't exists in a vacuum, YOU are run on the platform of modern society, and this platform is destined for DOOM.

Let me give a simple analogy, pretend you driving a Corolla on a wide highway with little traffic. Pretend you driving long distance and want to push the arrival time earlier. So let pretend you a good ass driver and gots some tight skills and manuver very good with that small toyota. You end up getting ahead of everyone right? You zip pass 18-wheelers one after another and go are big #1.

Thats like 1998. The average person just need to try hard, get a good education, and he comes out and gets a high paying job, payes off student loan, then buys a house and car and starts an American Dream.

[s]
Now pretend you are in Los Angelos stuck in the [/s]
scratch that, pretend you are in Houston during that Rita shit and are on your way to Dallas. You and every car around you are jam packed bumper to bumper for literally hundreds of miles with no end in site. You are going 5mph average top speed, somethings not moving at all. In this situation it no matter you got skills, it no matter you got manuverable jap sucker car, it no matter you lazy or motivated or smart or dumb or skinny or fat.....

Thats like postpeak oil in America. You have a PhD? Good for you, so fucking what? You still can't find a job, any job.. You still can't afford even basic one bedroom apartment. You not much better off than stupid high school dropout...... except you more in dept becuase you spent 100,000 on a college education... It doesn't matter if you work hard, if you are smart, if you are 'moral' or nice, or lucky, still you are no better than the worst.
The great equalizer that is PO is far more dangerous and deadly than any commy or terrorists.

Bascially, WE ARE FUCKED!

Yes, I KNOW THAT. But my question is this:

If the above badness situation will not happen until say 2030, then what the fuck do I have to worry about? Our subjective live is about ~50-80 years. When we die the world, the planet, the universe and all existence sieze to exists! Therefore as long as BADNESS is significantly far away (for most of us: ~20-30years away) it REALLY DOESN"T EVEN MATTER!!!

GEt what I am saying?

I know this is 'selfish' of me to act that this, but hey its human nature. Its why I think humanity is fucked...

I guess this is kind of like Enron mentally, but I really don't care.
As long as I don't have to suffer too much that all that really matters to me.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('12amps', '
')Pops, YOU and your universe stop existing the moment you die.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('12amps', ' ')
Pops, YOU and your universe stop existing the moment you die.
By talking about caring about your grandkids AFTER you have already DIED is you making the assumption that physical world can still go on and exists independent of your conciousness, and independent of the mental world. But of course, your assumption is not based on anything, you just believe it is so...

[sabs]

Good post. Like it, Used to feel that way,

However:

Charles "Big Chuck" Darwin will have the last word here. Even if world pop goes from 6.5b to 6.5m, there will still be humans left here. Even if it goes from 6.5b to 65 000, there will be humans left,

Shouting: THOSE WHO MANAGE TO ADAPT TO GIVEN CONDITIONS WILL HAVE AN ADVANTAGE OVER THOSE WHO LIVE IN DREAMS!

Over and out.[/quote]


Nice response- it has occured to me on more than one occasion that PO is nature's way of getting rid of a lot of stupid genes in one fell swoop- not all of them admittedly- evolution has to continue

[Ludi]

It's "human nature" to care for our genetic material, and for humans this means the extended family or tribe. It may be "cultural nature" to be shortsighted and unmindful of the future but that's certainly not "human nature" as we've seen from our early ancestors if you're at all aware of anthropology. Folks were quite capable of thinking ahead and living in a sustainable manner because THEY HAD TO. If folks were able to do this for 100,000 years there's no reason they can't do it again.

Learn from your elders.

[12amps]

Pops,

I was thinking about something more or less along these lines.

www.swcp.com/~hswift/swc/Fall98/close9802.html

Most scientists trained in the current paradigm believe that consciousness is an epiphenomenon of material evolution. They argue that the universe evolved for billions of years before life and consciousness began to appear. This view of consciousness, like any other scientific theory, has its a priori assumptions, and the first step in the formal presentation of a scientific theory is to enumerate the a priori assumptions upon which the theory is based. Surprisingly, there is one assumption, perhaps the most basic assumption of all in the current scientific paradigm, that is rarely ever articulated. This is because it seems to be so obviously true that most scientists see no need to include it explicitly in the written accounts of their work. This rarely-mentioned assumption is the assumption that physical reality is independent of consciousness.

The Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics requires that a moving elementary particle has no localized form until it impacts upon a receptor. And information is carried from the object to the observer by a series of sources, particles, and receptors. But what is the final receptor? If it is a physical structure, it is by definition made of elementary particles, and if the energy of the incoming quanta is absorbed by physical particles, how can we account for the image of the object of observation that arises in consciousness? Is it composed of energy? If so, there is a minimum volume within which the image of an object can appear and be stored, since energy can only occur in quanta, or discrete, finite packets. What is the consciousness that perceives this image? Is it also made up of quanta of matter and energy? If so, then the elementary particles of which it is composed also had no local physical form until they registered on a prior receptor. And that prior receptor, if it was composed of quanta of matter and energy, also had to have had a prior receptor, and so on. Thus the quest for the first receptor becomes an infinite regression in time and space. But time and space are finite in the physical world and there is, therefore, a "bottom" to physical phenomena, the infinite regress or descent is impossible, and we have a logical contradiction. Conclusion: the final receptor and the images it perceives are not composed of quanta of matter and energy.

This is the same logical contradiction discovered by the inner research of mystics as they seek to discover the nature and location of the self. See, for instance, the teachings of Ramana Maharshi. The mystic asks: Who am I? and where does this "I" reside? Attempting to locate the perceiving self, one soon realizes that any part of the physical body, the head, heart, brain, etc., identified as the location of the self, immediately becomes an object perceived by the self, and the perceiving subject is therefore something other than the structure. The conclusion, again, is that consciousness is something beyond matter and energy.

Instead of trying to explain consciousness in terms of matter and energy, perhaps we should be trying to explain matter and energy in terms of consciousness. By approaching the problem in this way, we will be able to obtain information complementary to the information from research into parallel physical processes and structures. Attacking the problem from both sides will lead to a better understanding of the interaction of mind and matter and produce a more meaningful explanation of consciousness.



I can't say I agree with what it says entirely. But science itself does make assumptions which it cannot prove.


"In the formulation of the theory of relativity, for example, Albert Einstein spelled out the assumptions of constant light speed and no preferred reference frame, but saw no need to mention mind-matter independence. Einstein was certainly aware of this underlying assumption, but to find his acknowledgement of it, we have to turn to his more general writings. In James Clerke Maxwell: A Commemorative Volume, he said: "The belief in an external world independent of the perceiving subject is the basis of all natural science."

WTF??? Just think about that for a second.

.....


The scientific community has just an empty foundation as Christianity!!!

[Atlantean_Relic]

So what is the point? Are you saying there is a soul in the since that something outside the physical must perceive thing? Or that Everything observed is a figment of our consciousness. In which case I want to percieve myself in a fortress which enough gold, food, and water to live out my life.

[mrobert]

Nations, people, governments, etc ... won't do anything on the matter.

But you can. I can. And I am doing it.
Everytime energy and related prices go up, I figure something out, to cut down my usage.
So far it works ... I actually pay less money then 2-3 years ago, and haven't quit using anything ... just use more efficient appliances.

As mentioned above, I am in the "privileged" situation to experience the PeakOil phenomenon in real life.
If you guys would pay what we pay (compared to average wages, etc) ... would be well over $10 a gallon for you.

Do you think the economy is dead? Do you think life is bad?
On the contrary.
PeakOil will be a miracle. Mark my words.
It will be the best thing that has ever happened.

It heavily affects those that live in denial, and constantly point the finger at the government, when they could walk into a damn store, and buy some nice cold cathod light bulbs and cut down power usage with at least 50%
But no. They won't do it. Instead they buy the same old light bulb at the same price, that uses 4 times more power.
And so on.

It has taken me time to change my lifestyle.
I spent countless evenings doing propaganda to my future wife, until she finally got it.
I explained her, that even if today we can easily afford anything and live nicely, we still have to prepare and slowly change our lifestyle to a more efficient one.
She got the point and started working with me.

I told her there are 2 scenarios :
1. One day our kids will live in cold and hunger because we were to stupid to change anything. This convinced her.
2. Things go on ok. Well .. at least we saved a lot of money and can go on a nice vacation ... she liked this aswell.

---
My fellow board members, unfortunately all we can do, is save our asses. And we should focus on this.
I assume that everyone beeing on this forum, is more or less concernced about the issue.

None of us won't be able to do shit about the world we live in.
But we can ensure our future. Let's focus on that.

Starting this summer, I will start implementing the more advanced part of my plan.
I am planning to switch over my entire office, to solar panels.
My laptop, and all attached electronics, will run of solar power.

It will be a good test case, so I can take this to a higher level.

-----------
For less the $10, I bought a 200W 12 volts eletric heater. For the moment does a fine job in my car, during the winter mornings.
If the shit hits the fan ... it's a good alternative to nothing, and can be powered easily from alternatives.

[12amps]

Mr roberts, couldn't really tell if you were being sarcastic or not.


Starting this summer, I will start implementing the more advanced part of my plan.
I am planning to switch over my entire office, to solar panels.
My laptop, and all attached electronics, will run of solar power.

Thats assuming there is an office LEFT for you to work in, a JOB left for the office to exists! You are better off than most people no?
If so, when everything goes bad, and I mean EVERYTHING, what makes you think people won't CUT YOU! What is your occupation Mr. Roberts? Whatever it is, do you think in DESPERATE times it will still remain absolutely necessary?

The poor is propping you up. For every Mr. Roberts in the world, we have like 100 Mr. Work at McDonalds Nobodies in America.
ANd for every McDonald Nobody in America we have 100 every every sad people in this world. Soon these very very sad (aka China, India, etc) is not going to prop up the livestyle of McDonald Nobody, and McNobody will stop purchase stuff and guess what happens to Mr. Roberts??


See, right now most Doctors who run their own practice in the US are still pretty well to do. Most, still can afford big house, can afford trophy wife, can afford fast car, can afford BS,....
That only becuase an average doctor visit is like $150 US dollar.
And the doctor spends 3 minutes with each patient. $150 dollar for 3 minutes aint that shabby!!

But what are the Medical Whores going to do when the average person cannot afford $150 for a general visit? What happens when the insurance won't cover it, or the average person cannot afford insurance? (becuase the average person is now out of a job, bankrupt, etc) What happens when the cost of everything, including drugs and medical supplies, rent, gas, utilities, taxes all go up and the doctor cannot afford to lower his prices???
Either he gets put out of business, or we abandon altogether 'advanced medicine' 'hi-tech medical equipment' and he becomes a real doctor. So will have to work much harder and will make much less. Becoming a doctor will not be lucractive anymore....

Mr. Roberts, you might as well do nothing, we are all fucked and that sure includes you too.,