[Pops]

I’m kind of surprised at not only the pace of the run-up in oil price over the last couple years but also the speed at which alternatives are being proposed and implementation starting.

BTW, no arguments here regarding the viability of alternatives please – there are lots of other threads for those.

There are the Dems going for ethanol, the new hydrogen bill, the hybrids, CA’s solar panel rebate, wind this and bio that – disregarding the rebates and other demagoguery of course…

I am wondering if our current involvements overseas and their impacts here at home have been a spur to these seemingly quick moves or maybe the hurricanes or was it simply inevitable with the run-up?

Anyone else surprised or even notice this?

[seahorse2]

Pops,

I have been surprised that we aren't doing more. For example, Bush offered old military bases to build refineries, no takers. The tax break on hybrids was limited to the first number of "x" sold, and not granted for all hybrids purchases, GM and Ford still pushing SUVs and not a hybrid of their own; Fed not pushing solar rebates for homes across the board (limited to CA as far as I can tell), no tax incentives etc to businesses developing alternative fuels, no coal liquefication plants being built yet (been a year since Hirsch recommended this in his paper), apparently there are some real high mileage diesels in Europe not being sold in the US, why? No new mileage requirements for cars and trucks, no incentives for rail to expand and develop, No new nuclear plants being built, no electric cars being sold commercially. There's a lot that could be driven by the right incentive at the Federal level, but nothing being done accept admitting we are addicted to peak oil. I'm afraid we will all deal as effectively with peak oil as we have dealt with Social Security and Medicare - which is, do nothing but talk about it.

[Leanan]

I am not surprised. This is just what I expected. A lot of posturing, some token incentives. The same old, same old.

[emersonbiggins]

The phrase "grasping at straws" comes to mind...

[profgoose]

Leanan and I are on the same page here.

I have to think that the only real stimulus that gets us into gear is not going to be a secular set of events, like a run up to $4/gal. Even then, people might change their behavior, but they won't change their mindset.

No, it's going to take an exogenous shock. Something along the lines of a massive quick economic shock or a tremendous loss of life.

That's just the human condition. We cope until we can't. Then we reframe.

[jeffvail]

No one is building significant new refinery capacity because they understand that the supply of crude TO the refineries won't be increasing, and will soon decrease. We have plenty of refinery capacity...

The only "real" alternatives are 1) conservation, 2) decentralization/localization, 3) passive solar (limited applicability). Because these aren't hierarchal--that is, they don't funnel surplus up to the elites, but actually do the opposite--they won't be endoresed by those elites. There is lots of discussion of such alternatives in the decentralized, non-elite media, but none in the elite-controlled MSM.

[Peak_Plus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') am not surprised. This is just what I expected. A lot of posturing...

[CARVER]

Comedy Central - Daily Show: Headlines - Oil Gevalt (video) It seems there were some U-turns unless the Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman is right and these past couple of years were actually more like 10 or 9 years

(Sorry for not disregarding the rebates, but I thought this was funny, continue the real discussion)

[RonMN]

I am surprised at the rapid run up of oil, gold & devaluation of the dollar...it's like somebody has the fast forward button pushed & locked down.

But in response to those things, i'm not surprised at the ramp up of other energy technologies...as emmerson said "grasping at straws".

I'm now wondering how long we have before some of the more serious consequences come to pass (ie., empty grocery store shelves or huge increase in crime)?

[ThePostman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'I') am surprised at the rapid run up of oil, gold & devaluation of the dollar...it's like somebody has the fast forward button pushed & locked down.

But in response to those things, i'm not surprised at the ramp up of other energy technologies...as emmerson said "grasping at straws".

I'm now wondering how long we have before some of the more serious consequences come to pass (ie., empty grocery store shelves or huge increase in crime)?

[Zardoz]

As always, the lower economic classes will suffer first, and they'll be ignored, as always.

Nothing of any significance will change until the upper economic classes start feeling it. When entrepreneurs start seeing their businesses go south because their employees can't get to work, we'll see something get done. When the very rich start getting their $150,000 AMG Mercedes coupes vandalized in parking lots, TPTB will start receiving some phone calls.

Until the wealthy elite start to experience something akin to discomfort and annoyance, not much will happen.

[Pops]

Yea, all you guys and gals have been around here a while and we’ve debated the merits of the various alts over and over.

And obviously the proposals are all about preserving the status quo; not any change to the way we live – only to the how part.

Still, I am surprised at how fast the They are trying to force the techno-fix.

Perhaps, as I mentioned, They feel the underlying anxiety amongst the citizens about PO being the cause of our outside endeavors …

Sheep aren't always as dumb as they are cracked up to be.


But a good start I supose on getting to the eventual realization that the way we live part is the real problem...

[retiredguy]

I bought gold in December. Let's just say I'm not disappointed in the returns.

But this does point up a conundrum. The Wall Street pundits are having trouble making sense of the run-up in the price of precious metals while the economy is "booming."

What it says to me is that a lot of folks are running scared right now; they expect the dollar to start skidding at any time.

At the same time, I personally have seen very little real activity in attempting to deal with the PO problem. Around here, the exurbs continue to be built, SUVs continue to be sold, and hugh amounts of tax-payer dollars are being poured into highway contruction. Looks like business as usual to me.

People are bitching about gas prices but continue to say that they aren't going to or can't change their driving patterns.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', '.')..People are bitching about gas prices but continue to say that they aren't going to or can't change their driving patterns.

[Vexed]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') am not surprised. This is just what I expected. A lot of posturing, some token incentives. The same old, same old.

[pigleg]

I think now you can say "So, about the peak oil problem..." conversationally, and there's more of a chance the other person might have heard of it.

And the token incentives.

[Novus]

Not only do I see a lot of inertia but I see soceity for the most part heading in the wrong direction. In the last five years there has been a massive housing boom. Most of these new houses are huge energy hogging McMansions build in Ex-urbia. Commutes are getting longer, houses are getting bigger, and more and more car dependency everywhere. We now have an exposion of mega-box retailers who sell nothing but useless consumable junk and come drive from miles around to buy it.

There is some hope in the new-urbanist movement where an old town near me has been trying to redensify its urban core. The Mayor used eminent domain to dulldoze a few dozen single family homes so the developers could build hundreds of new appartment and condo units with ground floor shops. He was hated for it and there was a long drawn out court battle but in the end he won. The town is now a walkable haven in a sea of mindless car dependency.

When I see people rushing out to buy hybrids my doomerosity goes up a little more because these people are stubornly holding onto old lifestyles resisting the real change nessasary to survive PO. They just don't get it that hybrids or any such technolgy can't save suburbia or the over consumptive lifestyle it represents. Electrifying the national trafic jam is akin to replacing the steam engines on the Titanic with diesel engines when what we really need are more lifeboats. When I see people who do get it and decide to give up their cars for good and move to walkable communities my doomerosit ebbs a little bit.

[Micki]

Regarding the confusion about the gold price.
Have people still not seen the stats on gold shorts???
Goldman sachs, jp morgan, mitsubishi and a handful of other bullion banks are short 10,000 tons!!! gold and huge amounts silver. A lot of the buying right now is shorts covering.
A year ago they could do a sell attack and prices would take a dive and remain low for weeks. That gave them opportunity to cover at profits. Since then the dips have become quicker in time and shallower, so the shorts are in a huge bear squeeze.
The market is not full of speculators yet and that is one reason why temporary dips no longer cause any larger selloffs.
No doubt, when enough longs sit on nice profits, there will be price retracements and we are getting closer to one every dollar it goes up. The fundamentals are however fantastic.

For further details visit gata.org and look up the credit agricol/bank cheveraux report + sign up for free trial newsletter of lemetropolecafe.com
They are the only ones who have been able to correctly analyse the market the last few years.

[sventvkg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'P')ops,

I have been surprised that we aren't doing more. For example, Bush offered old military bases to build refineries, no takers. The tax break on hybrids was limited to the first number of "x" sold, and not granted for all hybrids purchases, GM and Ford still pushing SUVs and not a hybrid of their own; Fed not pushing solar rebates for homes across the board (limited to CA as far as I can tell), no tax incentives etc to businesses developing alternative fuels, no coal liquefication plants being built yet (been a year since Hirsch recommended this in his paper), apparently there are some real high mileage diesels in Europe not being sold in the US, why? No new mileage requirements for cars and trucks, no incentives for rail to expand and develop, No new nuclear plants being built, no electric cars being sold commercially. There's a lot that could be driven by the right incentive at the Federal level, but nothing being done accept admitting we are addicted to peak oil. I'm afraid we will all deal as effectively with peak oil as we have dealt with Social Security and Medicare - which is, do nothing but talk about it.

[Atlantean_Relic]

My answer to the topic is this; A rampaging elephant is a rampaging elephant no matter what color you paint it.