[12amps]

For those of us we live in the US:

Realistically, practically, how bad will things get and how soon?
And when things do start getting 'bad' what is the rate of bad-ness??


When considering take PO, Dollar Crash, Budget Deficit (its not a deficit if we don't pay it back, and China really CAN"T FORCE the US to pay any of it back)
into account. Of all the countries in the world we are STILL stealing the most OIL, and we are STILL manipulating the most currency. Not too shabby...

Things will get bad thats for sure, but the Africans and other poor countries will get hit the hardest. The thing of it is, the US will not just stand around, it will use all its might to continue even more aggressively its cheating of the world and theivery of resources in order to support its way of life for as long as possible.

My question is however, recently I see PO becoming more and more immenient and True, and even broadcasted more in the MSM. But whenever the MSM does something its usually HYPE.
So I'm confused now. America has been 'declining' for the past 30 years and up until this very minute life is still very very good.
So if the shitting STONE AGE won't hit until another ~30 year why am I here at this site?(I don't mean it negatively, I love this site) I should just go back to sleep......

What is the rate of decline? anyone know? cuase if it is not at critical angle then the shit will not really fall.

[12amps]

say for example if this generation didn't have ANY children. Then in less than 40 years we can bring our population down to 1/5 if we cap the maximum age to 50. (basically put 'old' people to sleep)

PO is actually a population problem. All the problems of the world is actually a population problem. Get rid of the population and you get rid of a LOT of problems.

[gnm]

Geat idea! Lets start with you!

-G

[Dreamtwister]

There are so many things that can affect the rate of "badness" right now, it's really hard to lay out a timeline. Things could go on declining for another 3 decades before affluent Americans (I'm assuming that's who you're asking about) begin to suffer, or something could happen today that plunges civilization into the stone age over night.

I was watching a show on Discovery the other night that was talking about coronal mass ejections. The main point of the show was that if a sufficiently powerful one (in the 240 millitesla range) were to hit the Earth, it would knock out the entire planet's electrical grid and telecommunications network, and would require replacement of virtually every electrical transformer on the planet. Without a power grid to run the operation, it might take as long as a decade to rebuild the grid. Can you imagine the chaos if the lights went out for a decade? Add in an unstable dollar and global tensions already in existence and you have a serious problem.

[gnm]

DT - We actually dodged one of those recently. It blew off perpendicular to earth. As far as power outages go, I don't think things would hold together for more than a week judging from recent (cough Katrina) events. I think the largest potential for a fast crash exists in the financial sector ala great depression only worse style crash.

-G

[12amps]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'G')eat idea! Lets start with you!

-G

[gnm]

Well, being a libertarian I find the whole idea offensive. I don't believe in imposing the "collectives" will upon individuals. I also don't think society as a whole should have to fix an individuals problems brought on by thier own bad choices.

-G

[12amps]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'W')ell, being a libertarian I find the whole idea offensive. I don't believe in imposing the "collectives" will upon individuals. I also don't think society as a whole should have to fix an individuals problems brought on by thier own bad choices.

-G

[12amps]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'I') think the largest potential for a fast crash exists in the financial sector ala great depression only worse style crash.

-G

[mrobert]

Not overpopulation.
But overpopulation with useless people is our problem.

For the past 50-100 years, governments, through wellfare programs, encouraged useless people to f*ck around and make kids like rabbits, while idiots like me work 16 hours a day, to support them.

The dieoff has began.
I see people spending their winter in house with little or no heat.
Yesterday I was in a few medical clinics trying to find one that wasn't crouded to take care of a small thing. They were 4-5 times more crowded like a few years back (and the number of medical facilities increased in the meanwhile).
Last autumn, I went with my mother, to my grandfather's grave, in the cemetery.
Walking, my mother said at one point : Son, have you observed how this cemetry filled up the past years ... with people around 50 years!

All I could say was : With no heat, poor food, etc etc ... exactly how much do you expect someone to live?

Offcourse, If I work, and make sure my life is ok, I am always classified as a selfish bastard who doesn't care about the community (which doesn't give a damn about the peakoil issues).

So it all boils down to beeing an efficient selfish bastard, or a stupid f*ck working to sustain people who don't really give a sh*t about the world around them.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'D')T - We actually dodged one of those recently. It blew off perpendicular to earth.

[12amps]

Why do you thinks its bad that stupid people make the most babies?
When the world is full of stupid ass shit, then that makes you smarter in comparision. Would you like it to be the other way around? The smartest having the most kids? Then you would be a fucking retard in the world. Both ways there are good and bad.

[Ludi]

Why on Earth would you work 16 hrs a day to support "useless" people, mrobert? I hardly work at all and I never take a handout.

Maybe you really are an idiot!

The population problem is real, but mainly a lifestyle problem, living unsustainably.

[12amps]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')hy on Earth would you work 16 hrs a day to support "useless" people, mrobert? I hardly work at all and I never take a handout.

Maybe you really are an idiot!

The population problem is real, but mainly a lifestyle problem, living unsustainably.

[Ludi]

A sustainable way of life does not allow the population to exceed the carrying capacity of the local area. OF COURSE a sustainable lifestyle includes a sustainable birthrate.

Our present population is not sustainable in our current way of life. Some people propose it could be sustainable if we lived a different way.

[mrobert]

Now you all got me wrong.

@Ludi seems to get it *right*.
Why do I work 16 hour a day?
Let me reformulate my ideea.

Let's assume all our world is composed out 1000 people living in a perfect society.
Each one of us, needs $100 worth of food, energy, services, etc, to survice.
Let's say we are 500 families.
Each of our families makes 2 babies. Now each of us, will work to make $210. ($100 for himself, $100 for one baby).
The other $10, we put it in a common "fund", so we can build some roads, some streetlights, make a park and some other common services we all use.

Society works great.
But one day, some families, make a 3rd baby, but they will only generate the same $210. We take some money from our common "fund" to sustain the difference. And we loose out on some service.
Then the number doing this grows.
The a few of these families, form a corporation monopoly, and somehow make everyone's life cost $150, for no real reason.
Then some families stop paying the $10 into our common fund.
We need to recover our loses, and turn to the families that haven't changed, and take more of there $210 making their life crappier.


Does this make sence?
Focus on the above ideea. Leave anything that has to do with life as we know it.

When you got the picture, scale to 6.4 billion.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('12amps', 'R')ealistically, practically, how bad will things get and how soon?

[Ludi]

Sorry, Mrobert, I don't understand your need to work 16 hours a day...I just don't. Why are you working 16 hrs a day? For what? For whom?

Who is "useless?" The military industrial complex? Because they are the ones taking the bulk of your money.

[gnm]

12amps, Don't PM me and mirror it with a post here - thats irritating. I already responded to your more detail request via PM...

as PM'ed...................snip

Well I'm no expert but there are several unnerving factors.

largest real estate bubble in history propping up (equity loans) the most indebted population in history...

largest trade deficits in history

largest national debt in history

social security pyramid scheme becoming insolvent

medicare pyramid scheme becoming insolvent

Fed printing money like theres no tomorrow (think inflation) I wonder if they plan on inflating away the debt?

very precarious economy indeed I think. Rememeber the stock market was hitting record highs just before the 1929 crash.. Just like its doing now..

Gold is skyrocketing because investors see it as a save haven in inflation. The Euro has also climbed as a result of the weakening dollar.

Anyways its a lot easier for money/banks/investments (enron anyone?) to crash hard and fast than for infrastructure to just go away (refineries, coal mines and oil will still be there) - you just won't be able to afford them!

-G

_________________

[truecougarblue]

Back to the original question, obviously this is the $100 question, and anyone who really knows the answer is far more clairvoyant than I. I'm not a prophet, I can only look at the past and make educated guesses about the future. Let me preface this by saying I'm not a doomer. I don't want a hard crash.

When I look at the large view I see three main systemic risks that could cause a quick crash. They are money, war, and logistics.

The globalization of our economy has left all developed nations intertwined in a way never before seen. Try to imagine a global drought of credit not seen since the great depression, a time when companies, individuals and even governments can not get operating capital. If this unwinds due to PO then my take is that the descent would be slow and steady toward a deep, deep depression that hardly or doesn't recover. It would be slow and steady due to demand destruction.

If PO continues to incite war among nations and WWIII breaks out it could potentially get really bad really soon. Say for example that the government starts enforcing a draft. In WWII in the U.S. even older married men weren't spared. In Germany they drafted young boys and grandfathers. Death by battle on foreign soil could happen really quick in that scenario. This path could be mitigated by demand destruction as well if European, Asian, or Middle Eastern nations start trading nukes, but it would only be mitigated for an individual if that individual didn't live in a blast or fallout zone. This path is the least likely in my opinion to create a soft landing for the greatest number of people.

Shortfalls in transportation due to shortages in liquid fuels could quickly turn into massive unrest in any population or could manifest in the form of lines at the gas station (already happening), or lines at the supermarket. An economy with logistical problems shows them by way of the lines of people waiting to access necessities.

These areas are certainly interrelated but if we go down all these roads together and fast I'd give a 6 month window of time between a normal everyday first world existence and a hellish nightmare.

I'd put my mad money on the long slow depression. Life in these United States would be similar to the Jimmy Carter years, only all the young men will be gone to war. 5-10 years out there will be little or no maintenance to infrastructure for the general population and if you don't have a cop in the family you'd better not expect equal justice under the law. Nukes may or may not end it all, I'm betting they will. If you survive that you'll be one of the lucky few and the world will be your oyster.

My $.02