[RattlesnakeJake]

Hi all. I’m new to ‘Peak Oil’ and new to this discussion forum; however, it seems to me that the customary concept of Peak Oil is irrelevant to the current price of oil. As I understand it, the Peak is a level spot on a bell curve. Whether we are there depends on the slope of the curve being zero rather than slightly positive (before the ‘peak’), or slightly negative (after the ‘peak’). What could be less of an event than a curve with a slope of zero?

In any case, the real peak occurred back in 1979 when world production topped out at 2.5 litters/person-day. Since then, the world population has increased faster than oil production, and many of those folks are now able to compete with me for their share of the world’s oil (they can’t have my share).

Since my share includes fuel for my SUV, and the fertilizer for the food I eat, and the transportation of my oil and food; I need more than 2 litters a day. So, we’re going to have a price war to see who gets the oil.

Whenever world production does decline, and world population continues to increase, and more folks get the resources to compete with me for their share of world’s oil, we could have the perfect storm for high inflation. These are interesting times.

[SoothSayer]

Hmm - just like the engines of a 747 stopping at 35000 feet ..... just a non-event really ... for the first tenth of a second ...

[Cynus]

It seemed to me like RattlesnakeJake started his post arguing that PO was a non-event, but by the end of it started to realize that it could be quite a problem.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RattlesnakeJake', 'H')i all. I’m new to ‘Peak Oil’ and new to this discussion forum;

[Jack]

The event horizon of a large black hole is also a non-event. Yet it changes everything once one crosses it.

Truly.

[Ancien_Opus]

The per capita use of oil is what is referenced by how efficient we've become when in actuality more oil is being used. In other words, more individuals are more dependent upon less oil.

The problem with peak oil is the geometric and confounding impact. This means that the price moves in all directions and is obfuscated by
interdependancy with other factors. In most cases it easy to see the linier relationship but with oil it impacts us in many ways. The price relationship percolates through the economy. Direct impact at the gas pump - transportation, indirect impact - farms, fertilizer, plastics, mining, raw material cost and the obtuse - debt burdern, inflation, finance, governmental & monetary destabilization.

Like ripples from a pebble tossed into the pond such are the effects of peak oil. Simple to see just one ripple but when a dozen hit the water at the same time, it is a confusing mess. In some places the waves will cancel themselves out leaving calm water but in others there will be tsunami sized wave magnifed by all the splashes.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'T')he event horizon of a large black hole is also a non-event. Yet it changes everything once one crosses it.

Truly.

[NeoPeasant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RattlesnakeJake', 'I')n any case, the real peak occurred back in 1979 when world production topped out at 2.5 litters/person-day. Since then, the world population has increased faster than oil production, and many of those folks are now able to compete with me for their share of the world’s oil (they can’t have my share).

[Pops]

Welcome Jake, kind of a tough room here but don’t be discouraged.

Very nice overview Opus. A good explanation of why most folks reading of the tealeaves will be quite inaccurate.

I’d like to borrow this for my tagline for a while if you don’t mind,
<<Like ripples from a pebble tossed into the pond such are the effects of peak oil.>>

[arretium]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RattlesnakeJake', 'H')i all. I’m new to ‘Peak Oil’ and new to this discussion forum;

[azreal60]

I think the purpose is something that it doesn't accomplish really. Basically, the author of that response is (I'm assuming) frustrated that the orginal poster did not read some of the posts here to see if he was correct, or even draw the logical conclusion of his orginal statement as Opus pointed out.

The problem is that that kind of post really doesn't help direct the poster towards more intelligent posting. What it does is try to convince that poster to stop posting on the site. Most people aren't the kind of person who takes that paticular type of tough love. At least, not past the age of 20. Beyond there, that kinda thing just tends to piss us off unlesss we are the will debate anything type.

Long and the short, if your trying to encourage the poster towards more orginal and insightful thinking, try something a bit less acidic and a bit more enlightening towards why they are wrong. If your trying to discourage them from posting on the site, Don't. We are last I looked trying to make people aware of peakoil. If they are scared off after the first time they post, they won't really learn now will they?