[SoothSayer]

On May 1 Petroleum News discussed ... with Alaska oil industry consultant Roger Herrera.

“I really have to believe that the world is very close to, if not past, peak oil,” Herrera said.

Coming from a background as an oil geologist in the days when there might be a one in 20 chance of striking oil with a wildcat well, Herrera was trained to be an optimist about finding oil. So, anticipating declining production really goes against the grain with him.

Link

[aldente]

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[Jack]

Good article, and well worth reading.

From the article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')or does Herrera think that governments have any short-term options for alleviating the situation. For example, he does not think that pouring money into renewable energy will provide a solution — renewable energy sources just cannot provide enough energy.

[Armageddon]

He is a good geologist, but a terrible economist. If he doesnt think that high energy costs are going to be a factor, he is surely mistaken. High energy , added to the current US consumer and governmental debt, will collapse this entire financial system. We are already seeing school systems, and local governmental departments hurting already. We are on the brink of collapse.

[mgibbons19]

Hmm, I kind of disagree. Recently returning from Iceland, where gas is >6USD/gal, I was struck by the same thing. High prices will not lower demand the nice rational way we are thinking. They will get higher than us peakers expect, ppl will keep trying to pay, until they can't.

What they won't do, is look at the somewhat higher prices, and think "I'll move close to work now" or "I think now would be a good time to try and open a mom and pop corner grocery."

That's what i think he means by 'higher prices will not lower demand.' Of course, higher prices will lower demand eventually, but not in the nice rational manner peakers might think.

[SoothSayer]

>> We are already seeing school systems, and local governmental departments hurting already. We are on the brink of collapse.

The infrastructure is indeed creaking already.

However I suspect that tax increases, cut backs of services, price increases and inflation will be the initial result.

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '&')gt;> We are already seeing school systems, and local governmental departments hurting already. We are on the brink of collapse.

The infrastructure is indeed creaking already.

However I suspect that tax increases, cut backs of services, price increases and inflation will be the initial result.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'O')ne of the power hungry lunatics on this site siezes the opportunity to carve his kingdom. He blames the government and big oil. And an uprise has been born.

[Armageddon]

We already are headed toward a police state. They are practicing for the real thing when anarchy breaks loose because of PO and/or financial meltdown.